Given the fact that the Democratic Primary race for President is just more exciting than the Republican Primary race for President, I can understand that people/pundits/media would normally just pay more attention to the Democratic race over the Republican race. However, over the past few weeks many in the media have focused their commentary on the possibility that the prolonged Democratic Primary may hurt the eventual Democratic nominee in the General election this November. I think that, as with any primary battle, there will be some residual loss of support for the eventual nominee, but none greater than normal.
One of the main reasons for the excitement in the Democratic race that has generated record turnout is that Democrats are tired of this Republican administration and their failed policies and mismanagement of our nation's affairs. In the end, I believe that the Democrats desire for change will overcome any animosity from a primary battle. In addition, both Democratic candidates and their surrogates will make sure that they encourage their supporters to support the nominee. This is likely to happen because both candidates will remain a powerful force in American politics regardless of the outcome in the Presidential primary, and they will need to work together after the election.
However, this has not been the case on the Republican side. Although McCain assumed frontrunner status for the Republican Party after Tsunami Tuesday in February, he has not been able to unite the Party's base around his candidacy. Yesterday, I posed the question in my post about McCain's inability to unite the Republican's base around his candidacy, and the problems this may pose his candidacy in the General election. The NY Times published an article today by Michael Cooper, For the Republicans, It's McCain (and Others) that highlights the fact that a significant portion of Republicans voters refuse to support McCain. I am glad that the media is paying attention to this dynamic because I think that it will definitely alter the strategy for the General election.
Amid the chatter about whether the Democrats would be able to unite around one of their candidates was an interesting nugget. Incomplete returns on Tuesday night showed that more than 20 percent of those who voted in the Republican primary in Indiana voted for someone other than Senator John McCain, the party's presumptive nominee.
With 74 percent of the state reporting, Mr. McCain was winning Indiana with 77.3 percent of the vote, according to The Associated Press. That would be considered a robust margin on most election nights. But consider the competition.
If you look at the contests that have occurred since March 5th, McCain has faced consistent resistance from many Republican voters.
What does it say that more than 1 in 5 Republican voters have refused to vote for him since he secured the Republican nomination? The only plausible explanation is that Conservatives are not confident/comfortable with McCain. In my post yesterday, I also claimed that McCain has probably learned that Conservatives would rather stay home or vote down ballot than support his candidacy. McCain has spent the past several months convincing Conservatives that he deserves their support, and he is failing at convincing them. The Washington Post published an article by Juliet Eilperin, McCain Says He Would Put Conservatives on Supreme Court that focuses on McCain's continued efforts to persuade Conservatives to support his candidacy.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee said that Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. "would serve as the model for my own nominees, if that responsibility falls to me," highlighting the gap between Republicans and Democrats on the question of who should sit on the Supreme Court. Both justices have established strong conservative records since Bush appointed them, and the appointment of one more conservative to the nation's highest court could tip the balance on issues such as abortion, discrimination, civil liberties and private property.
If 20% of the Republican base chooses to walk out on McCain, he will have to pick up those votes elsewhere. Maybe he could reach out to Hispanics, oh wait he has already betrayed them, and sold them down a river. This strategy may have been a bad bet for McCain, but then again McCain has never been a good gambler.
It has become very clear that McCain will do/say whatever it takes to win the White House. Yesterday, I posted that on McCain's effort to court Hispanic voters. McCain also chose to use Cinco de Mayo as an opportunity to appeal to Hispanic voters. Reuters published an article, McCain woos Hispanics and launches Spanish web site, and the Washington Times published an article by Stephen Dinan, McCain courts Hispanic voters, that both focus on McCain's attempt to reverse trends among the Hispanic electorate which have fled the GOP in droves over the last two election cycles. Both articles touched on the fact that Republican Party's anti-immigrant message has cost Republicans support among Hispanic voters. They both also highlight that McCain has changed his position on immigration. Hispanics should make no mistake that McCain betrayed the immigrant community during the immigration debate and walked away from his own bill. McCain now says that he supports an "enforcement first" approach to immigration despite the fact that poll after poll shows that the American public wants a comprehensive solution to this problem. McCain has decided to put politics ahead of policy. Excerpts of the stories are below:
Reuters
Hispanic support for the Republican Party has ebbed in recent months, following a bruising battle over illegal immigration.
Republican lawmakers sank a comprehensive immigration bill last June that would have created a path to citizenship for many of the 12 million mostly Hispanic illegal immigrants living in the shadows in the United States.
McCain's support for a broad immigration overhaul that would also have put some illegal workers on a path toward U.S. citizenship angered many conservatives in his party. He later said Congress should focus on border security first.
Washington Times
Sen. John McCain said yesterday that Republicans have shed support among Hispanic voters because of the party's get-tough approach to illegal immigration, but he predicted that his enforcement-then- legalization approach will rebuild those bridges.
McCain's trouble is not just that be betrayed Hispanics on immigration, it's that he betrayed Hispanics to appease the Conservatives in his party who are adamantly opposed to any real solution to America's broken immigration solution. I have stated before that McCain cannot have it both ways. He will have to decide which constituency is more important to his presidential ambitions. McCain's press conference made it very clear yesterday that he has chosen the conservative wing of the Republican Party over Hispanics. His change on immigration is a clear signal to Conservatives that he is willing to reform himself to their standards as noted in yesterday's The Hill in an article by Alexander Bolton, McCain courts right wing.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will launch a new push Tuesday to ingratiate himself with social conservatives who mistrust him but whose support is vital to his hopes of winning the White House.
Right-wing leaders, who know he needs their backing, are working on a list of demands to pin him down on choosing judges with a conservative philosophy.
The two sides are engaged in a minuet that will determine the shape of this year's Republican presidential platform.
So how is it that McCain got here? Please take a moment to review what has happened to McCain. McCain won 70% of the Hispanic electorate in Arizona in his previous re-election to the United States Senate in 2004 proving that his previous positions were popular among Hispanics. In 2006, McCain continued to champion immigration reform bucking his national party who chose to alienate Hispanic voters. In 2006, the Republican Party lost both chambers of Congress. McCain pursues his presidential ambitions in 2007. His campaign struggles financially and in the polls. Conservatives attack McCain for supporting immigration. McCain wins Florida by courting Hispanic voters which catapults him as the GOP frontrunner. Guiliani, and Mitt Romney drop out ensuring that McCain is the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party. McCain then chooses to change position on immigration to appease Conservatives. Conservatives continue to attack McCain. McCain continues to seek approval from conservatives.
I know this sounds a bit simplistic, but in a nutshell this sums it up. McCain wins, despite opposition from Conservatives, with the support of Hispanic voters, and he chooses Conservatives over Hispanics. Talk about betrayal. I am convinced that McCain knows that he cannot win the majority of Hispanic voters, and is accepting that he needs to keep his percentage as close to 35% as possible. He probably assumes that his new messaging will deceive just enough Hispanic voters to get him to that percentage. In addition, he has probably learned that Conservatives would rather stay home or skip the presidential contest and vote down ballot, than vote for him. Although most of the media has focused on the Democratic race and the impact that the prolonged Primary will have on the General election, I think the bigger question is why hasn't McCain been able to unite the Republican Party and what danger does this pose to Republicans in the General election?
My prediction is that McCain will not reach 35% support among Hispanic voters in the General election, and that Conservatives will not show up for him in sufficient numbers. It is problem supporting a candidate that you just can't trust. Let's see how the McCain metamorphosis continues.
After his immigration overhaul bill collapsed in the Senate last year, John McCain transformed himself into a "border security first" presidential candidate with remarkable speed.
His message, over and over again in the Republican primaries, was that he'd heard the voters. They wanted the borders locked down first, and that would be his first priority as president. He basically stopped talking about the other parts of the Senate bill, like the guest worker program and that "path to citizenship" for millions of illegal immigrants.
That wasn't too surprising while he was competing for Republican votes, but his colleagues who worked with him on the bill - including GOP Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida - always read his remarks as a sign that he'd do the other things later, not that he'd abandoned them entirely.
I have blogged about McCain's efforts to court Latino voters, and the difficulty that his campaign will face as a result of McCain betraying Hispanic immigrants to appease conservative voters during his presidential campaign in the Republican primary. Read here and here for background. This weekend the Andres Oppenheimer comments in his weekly column, The Oppenheimer Report, of the Miami Herald on McCain's ever changing position on immigration as he prepares for a general election.
Hmmm. I smelled a significant shift in McCain's position. From what I recalled, McCain's 2005 immigration reform bill, which he sponsored alongside Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., called for simultaneous measures to secure the border with Mexico and an earned path to legalization for millions of undocumented workers who are already in the United States.
Later, when he was running for the Republican nomination and faced an outcry from the anti-immigration wing of his party, he backpedalled to a two-step immigration approach: He said we must first secure the border, and only then deal with undocumented workers.
Now, it seems, he has retreated even further from his original stand and is proposing a three-step process, in which providing for a path to legalization of millions of undocumented workers would come at the very end.
McCain has enjoyed much appeal and cross-over support in previous elections because of his reputation as a "straight talker" and his commitment to fight for the right causes. It seems that McCain is now willing to do/say whatever it takes to be elected to the nation's highest office. As I have said before, the McCain of today is not the McCain of yesteryear. It is difficult to understand how McCain would choose to deviate from a strategy that has worked so well for him in previous elections to adopt a strategy that has consistently failed the Republican Party. Anti-immigrant rhetoric has not worked for them in the past, did not work for them in this primary season, and will not work for them in the general election. McCain cannot have it both ways on this issue. He will need to clearly articulate a position, and eventually lose supporters one way or the other.
Many moons ago when I was a young High School kid in Las Vegas wanting to conquer the world, I embarked on a quest of enlightenment from many of the nation's most prestigious universities. My plan was to attend as many summer programs and seminars available so that I could learn as much information as possible. I know what you are thinking, and so I will confirm that I was an absolute nerd in High School. However, I quickly realized that a poor kid from the inner-city could not afford such luxuries, so I settled on a much more modest approach of attending at least one program each summer. This more modest approach also incurred significant costs, and so I began seeking help.
One day I received a letter from a State Senator who had heard of my ambitions and wanted to help. She requested me to contact her so that we can explore this further. That, my friends, was the beginning a long friendship with State Senator Dina Titus. Not only did she help me raise money for my summer programs, she also mentored me and demanded that I succeed in these programs. Over the years I have learned so much from her about politics, policy and life. I have the utmost respect and loyalty for her, and admire her passion to fight for her beliefs and her country.
Yesterday, she decided to announce that she will be challenging Congressman Jon Porter for the third congressional district in Nevada, and I couldn't contain my excitement. You see, we here in Nevada suffer from an abundance of incompetent politicians that continuously make living in this great state hard to do. While our Governor may be the poster boy for incompetence, Congressman Porter is a close alternate. Our community desperately needs to shed itself of these two politicians. Jon Porter is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, and so this will be one of the most competitive elections for Congress in the country. Dina is also one of the fiercest campaigners and will make this race exciting to watch.
On another note, during my days at the Nevada State Democratic Party we often made the case that as Nevada goes so goes the nation. I still firmly believe this, and yes this is a fair and balanced opinion from a Nevadan. Dina's announcement attracted a sizable crowd even with only a 24 hours notice, which just further demonstrates the excitement among Democrats in Nevada. Just as important is that Dina brought various factions of the Democratic family together, SEIU and AFSCME, Obama supporters and Clinton supporters, and Millennials and Seniors. State Senator Steve Horsford summed it nicely when he alluded that we may have many voices in the Democratic Party but "We are one family." Many pundits are still questioning whether Democrats will be able to unite in the General election to defeat McCain. The campaign for the Democratic nominee has remained extremely competitive in Nevada, and yet yesterday's showing provided evidence that above all else, Democrats are committed to retaking the White House and defeating Republicans. Let's see if the saying stays true "As Nevada goes so goes the nation."
You can read more about Dina's announcement here and here.
The Washington Post published an article by N.C. Aizenman titled, "Nearly 25 Percent of Children Younger Than 5 are Latino, Census Says" that focuses on estimates released by the US Census documenting the continued growth among Hispanics. This article is of particular importance because it relates to a segment of the Hispanic population that will be growing up in the United States, and be more informed as to the attitudinal behaviors of political parties towards Hispanics.
The increase from almost one in five in 2000 has broad implications for governments, communities and schools nationwide, suggesting that the meteoric rise in the Hispanic population that demographers forecast for mid-century will occur even sooner among younger generations.
"Hispanics have both a larger proportion of people in their child-bearing years and tend to have slightly more children," said Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center and co-author of a recent study predicting that the Latino population will double from 15 percent today to 30 percent by 2050.
Hispanics surpassed blacks as the largest U.S. minority in 2003 and continued to widen the gap by growing at nearly three times the pace of the black population, Census Bureau figures showed.
The Hispanic population grew by 1.4 million in the year ending July 1, 2007, while the black population grew by 540,000 to reach a total of 40.7 million, the agency said in a report on minority populations in the United States.
Sixteen states had a Hispanic population of more than 500,000. California was the largest at 13.2 million, followed by Texas at 8.6 million and Florida at 3.8 million.
Also the New York Times published an article by Julia Preston titled "Fewer Latino Immigrants Sending Money Home" focusing on the increasing problems that the economic downturn in the U.S. is causing in the hemisphere. NDN has been making the case over the past few months that with the growing Hispanic population fueled by immigration, the United States can longer regard bilateral relations with Latin American as a purely foreign policy issue. As the Hispanic population continues to grow both domestically and in Latin America, there will be an increased demand for social, economic and political coordination.
"The longstanding pattern of increasing numbers of Latin American immigrants sending increasing amounts of money back home has stopped," said Donald F. Terry, the general manager of the Multilateral Investment Fund at the development bank and the official in charge of the survey. The survey was conducted in Spanish from Feb. 9 to 23, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
With lower income and less job security, Latino immigrants said they were spending or saving their money here rather than sending it to support children, spouses and parents at home.
Below is the first in a series of Spanish-language video blogs I'll be doing in the coming weeks called "Adelante con Andres." If you have any suggestions on what you'd like me to cover in the next video, feel free to let us know in the comments section below.
There are several tidbits of information to share tonight, and I am happy to start blogging again. I know that several of you have missed me.
Today the WSJ printed an article by José de Córdoba titled "Democrats woo Cuban-American voters" that focuses on the three contested congressional races in south Florida including the one that is being sought by my predecessor Joe Garcia. The article notes that this is the first major contest to Florida's Cuban trifecta. Córdoba focuses primarily on the internal shifts occurring within the Cuban community in Florida, and how these races provide a clear picture of the two separate factions of the Cuban community.
"The Democratic Party is mounting its first serious challenge in years against Republican domination of Cuban-American voters in South Florida. The fight could affect politics in the battleground state as well as U.S. relations with Cuba."
NDN has been engaged in educating and mobilizing Hispanic voters in Florida for the past several election cycles and maintains that there is significant shift among Cuban voters increasing support for Democratic candidates. Our research has also shown that the overall Hispanic voting population is trending Democratic. These are exciting times in Florida, as they are undergoing a dramatic realignment in cultural and electoral trends.
In a separate publication, Bloomberg News printed an article by Hans Nichols titled "McCain Plea to Hispanics Dismays Anti-Immigration Republicans." NDN president, Simon Rosenberg, was quoted in the article reaffirming that McCain showed cowardice during the immigration reform debate in the US Senate.
McCain is "starting from an enormous deficit," said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic advocacy group in Washington.
While acknowledging that McCain has a better brand than other Republicans, Democrats said he wounded himself when he conceded in a Jan. 30 Republican debate that he would no longer vote for the immigration bill he sponsored in 2006 with Senator Edward Kennedy, a Massachusetts Democrat.
"John McCain was once a champion of immigrants," said Rosenberg, "but he walked away from his own bill."
I have discussed several times on this blog the growing problem that McCain will have in his presidential campaign as he struggles to shore up his support among conservatives in his party while trying to build a coalition that will get him elected in November. McCain will not be able to satisfy both constituencies, and will have to make a decision on which constituency is more important to his White House ambitions. Historically, McCain had enjoyed tremendous support among Hispanics in Arizona and championed immigration reform. However, throughout his Primary campaign McCain abandoned immigrant rights groups and Hispanics, and walked away from his own bill devastating millions of Hispanic families. McCain will try to refer to his record prior to the this time period to remind Hispanics about his efforts in the Hispanic community, but one thing is for sure the McCain of yesteryear in not the McCain of today. There are very few words that are more difficult to overcome with Hispanics than betrayal and hypocrite. McCain has the burden of overcoming both.
Finally, Adam Segal from the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University released a study that states that the Democratic candidates for President have set spending records for Spanish language advertising.
The two leading Democratic presidential candidates spent millions of dollars on Spanish-language television ads, setting records for individual and combined Democratic expenditures in a presidential primary season. By combining original research, interviews and news reports, the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University estimates that the Democratic presidential candidates spent more money - at least $4 million - on Spanish-language television advertising this cycle, outpacing total spending in 2000 and total primary spending in 2004.
NDN will be hosting a panel on the impact of the Latino electorate and the influence of Spanish language media on Latino voters next Saturday, March 29th during the California Democratic Party State Convention in the San Jose Convention Center. NDN will be joined by representatives of Univision and La Opinion to conduct this panel which is open to all participants of the California Democratic Party state convention. This panel will highlight current patterns of Latino voters in the 2008 presidential primaries as well as the campaigns use of Spanish language media to court Latino voters. This will be the first in a series of panels that NDN will conduct during several state party conventions this year. For background information read our report Hispanics Rising, our new study on the Hispanic Electorate and our report Speak in Spanish. Stay tuned for more information.
NDN is proud to announce a new series of events focusing on the future of US - Latin American Relations. The Latin American Policy Initiative will give policy makers and stakeholders an opportunity to discuss relations between the US and the various countries in Latin America. The series will focus on a different country each month, and work to establish an ongoing dialogue and research to better inform those interested in Latin American policy.
Our very first event will take place on Capitol Hill on Thursday, April 3rd, from 11:30am - 1:00pm in the Russell Senate Office Building Room SR-188, featuring US Senator Bob Menendez and Mexican Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan. The event will focus on the current relations and priorities between the United States and Mexico. There will be a 45 minute panel followed by a 45 minute Q&A session. Lunch will be served.
The event is free but you must RSVP to attend. Seating is limited, so please make sure that you contact us as soon as possible. For more information about this series or any of our other programmatic work, feel free to contact me at aramirez@ndn.org.
The NYTimes published an editorial titled "Citizenship, Thwarted" which focuses on the backlog of citizenship applications. The most compelling suggestion is that this delay may be an intentional ploy to prevent Hispanic immigrants from voting in this presidential election. If true, this is a very damaging development for the Bush administration and the Republican Party. It is imperative that Bush address this issue, and resolve this gross negligence by the federal government. This would not be the first case of the Bush administration abusing it's authority for political gain.
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