Andres Ramirez's blog

This report is an updated analysis of what happened with the Hispanic vote in last week’s historic election. For further background, please check out NDN’s major study of Hispanic voting trends, Hispanics Rising II, and our recent NDN polls.

Key Findings:

Hispanics' Participation Rates Continue to Increase – Despite an historically high turnout, the Hispanic share of the national vote increased from 8% in 2004 to 9% in 2008. In three of the battleground states with significant Latino populations, the share of the electorate that was Hispanic increased by 62% in Colorado, increased 50% in Nevada, and increased 28% in New Mexico (see table below).

Hispanics Have Decisively Swung to the Democrats – According to the exit polls, Barack Obama improved Democrats’ performance with Hispanics nationwide by 18 net percentage points. In 2004, Senator John Kerry outperformed President George W. Bush with Latinos by 58% to 40%. In 2008, it was 67% Obama, 31% McCain. In the battleground Latino states, there was similar movement, with the vote shift in Florida from 44%-56% Kerry/Bush to 57%- 42% Obama/McCain. In each of these four states, the margin provided by the Latino vote played a significant role in President-elect Obama’s victory.

Hispanics Improved The Margin of Victory in These Four States - In Colorado, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 7.9% of the electorate, while Obama won by 9%. In Florida, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 7.9% of the electorate, while Obama won by 3%. In Nevada, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 11.4% of the electorate, while Obama won by 12%. In New Mexico, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 28.3% of the electorate, while Obama won by 15%.

If These Trends Continue, the National Map Will Continue to Get Harder for Republicans – Of the nine states that flipped from Bush 2004 to Obama 2008, four were heavily Latino states. Just as Pete Wilson’s taking on Hispanics in the 1990s contributed to the transformation of California, home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, from a swing to the bluest of blue states, the demonization of Hispanics by the national GOP is turning very critical battleground states much more blue.

What should be most ominous to the GOP is what happened in these 4 states heavily contested by the Democrats. In this election, the center-left coalition went after the Hispanic vote as never before. It dramatically increased turnout in the southwestern states, and saw an historic shift of the enormous Florida Hispanic vote from Republican to Democrat. Similar investments in future years in states like Arizona and Texas could very well make these states – home to George W. Bush and John McCain – as blue as New Mexico and Colorado are today.

Notation: For 2004 exit poll results, please click here.

NOTE: An updated version of this report can be found here.

This report is a quick, preliminary analysis of what happened with the Hispanic vote in last night’s historic election. For further background, please check out NDN’s major study of Hispanic voting trends, Hispanics Rising II.

Key Findings:

Hispanics Participation Rates Continue to Increase – Despite an historically high turnout, the Hispanic share of the national vote increased from 8% in 2004 to 9% in 2008. In three of the battleground states with significant Latino populations, the share of the electorate that was Hispanic more than doubled in Colorado, increased 60% in Nevada, and increased almost 30 % in New Mexico (see table below).

Hispanics Have Decisively Swung to the Democrats – According to the exit polls, Barack Obama improved Democrats' performance with Hispanics nationwide by 16 net percentage points. In 2004, Senator John Kerry outperformed President George W. Bush with Latinos by 59% to 40%. In 2008, it was 67% Obama, 32% McCain. In the battleground Latino states, there was similar movement, with the vote shift in Florida from 44%-55% Kerry/Bush to 57% to 42% Obama/McCain. In each of these four states, the margin provided by the Latino vote played a significant role in President-elect Obama’s victory.

Hispanics Provided The Margin of Victory in These Four States - In Colorado, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 12.4% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 7%. In Florida, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 7.9% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 2%. In Nevada, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 12.4% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 12%. In New Mexico, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 28.3% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 15%.

If These Trends Continue, the National Map Will Continue to Get Harder for Republicans – Of the eight states which flipped from Bush 2004 to Obama 2008, four were heavily Latino states. Just as Pete Wilson’s taking on Hispanics in the 1990s contributed to the transformation of California, home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, from a swing to the bluest of blue states, the demonization of Hispanics by the national GOP is turning very critical battleground states much more blue.

What should be most ominous to the GOP is what happened in these 4 states heavily contested by the Democrats. In this election, the center-left coalition went after the Hispanic vote as never before. It dramatically increased turnout in the southwestern states, and saw an historic shift of the enormous Florida Hispanic vote from Republican to Democrat. Similar investments in future years in states like Arizona and Texas could very well make these states – home to George W. Bush and John McCain – as blue as New Mexico and Colorado are today.

Las Vegas, NV - Exit Polls show that Hispanics account for 15% of total turnout in Nevada, and breaking for Obama 75% - 23%.  Hispanics account for 12% of total voters in Nevada, which means that Hispanics voted at a higher rate than the general electorate.  I should note that several groups contributed to this historic turnout, specifically the local Univision television station, Culinary Union Local 226 and Democracia USA.  Again this is another example of how energized the Hispanic electorate has been this election season. 

I will be providing a more comprehensive reporting of these results for all states and providing more context, but I want to make sure that you guys are getting the info as it is available.  Make sure that you check back throughout the night to get updated reports.

Hispanics comprise 13% of the turnout in Colorado.  This is a significant number because Hispanics were only estimated to account for 9% of the electorate.  According to the results Hispanics broke 64% to 34% for Obama.  View results here

Exits polls show that Hispanics accounted for 40% of total turnout in New Mexico, and are breaking for Obama 69% to 30%.  That would mean that Obama's Hispanic supporters accounted for 27% of total voters. This is huge for the Obama campaign.  View the exit poll results here.

According to Exits Polls, Hispanics will make up 13%  of the electorate in Florida, and are breaking 55% - 44% in favor of Obama.  This would mean that Hispanics will account for about 7% of Obama's total vote.  View results here. If Obama wins Florida by anything less than 7%, then Hispanics will be responsible for putting Obama over the edge. Hispanics were expected to account for about 12% of the electorate in Florida, which means that Hispanics voted at the same rate or higher than the general population in Florida.  We are getting results that Hispanics are participating in record numbers across the country.  Stay tuned for more results. 

Las Vegas, NV - Poll released by Univision/Zogby/Reuters shows Hispanics choosing Obama by 78%.  This is an incredible number, and a very bad sign for McCain. Read more here. 

The Univision/Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday said that 78 percent of a sample of 1,016 Latino likely voters favored Sen. Obama, with 13 percent supporting McCain, an Arizona senator.

The poll, which was conducted between October 30 and November 2, found that 54 percent of respondents said the economy and jobs were the most important issue in deciding who to vote for, followed by health care and immigration, with 12 percent and 11 percent respectively.

Las Vegas, NV - I know that several pundits will be commentating on several indicators and factors on what influenced the outcome of the election, but this election will not be decided by any single factor.  Here in Nevada, I am proud that our state has been a battleground state giving us the opportunity to get to know the candidates and the issues in depth, starting with the Nevada Presidential Caucuses.  

One of the main reasons Nevada was chosen as an early state in the presidential selection process was to give Hispanics a voice in the process to determine the next President of the United States.  This whole process has seen historic participation among Hispanic voters, and historic outreach efforts among the candidates.  Looking at the turnout of Early and Absentee voters in Nevada, it seems that Hispanic voters are poised to again show record participation.  I am confident that exit polling will show Hispanics comprising between 13%-14% of total turnout in Nevada.

This campaign has focused on the theme of change by both candidates, and one thing is definitely going to change, candidates and parties will no longer be able to ignore the Hispanic electorate.  Hispanics have shown their political muscle throughout this process, and tonight pundits nationwide will accept this fact. 

This has not been an easy path, Hispanic advocacy organizations such as NALEO and NCLR and Spanish language media companies like Entravision and Univision have engaged in extraordinary efforts to register and mobilize Hispanic voters in this election.  NDN has been a proud partner in these efforts, and we will all be able to celebrate tonight, regardless of which candidate wins, due to the historic participation of Hispanics.

As a Hispanic and as an American, I am proud to say "Si Se Puede!"

Las Vegas, NV - Lots of news going on today.  First, I want to highlight a story from Detroit News claiming that 98% of the state's voting age population is registered to vote.  That is right my friends 98%!  That number is just phenomenal, and a testament to the enthusiasm among people who want to participate in this historic election.  I hope they are ready to handle the crowds on election day.

Overall, there were four times more new voters in heavily Democratic counties than in heavily Republican counties.

"The registration numbers probably bode well for Democrats," said pollster Bernie Porn of Lansing-based EPIC/MRA, which polls for The Detroit News. "The recent polling shows the odds are that new registrants are helping Democrats here, as in other states."

Tom Shields, Lansing-based political consultant to Republican candidates, said he's never seen a voter registration effort like the one the Obama campaign put together this year.

"They've done a good job of reaching out. That speaks well of the Obama campaign. But now they have to get them out to vote," Shields said.

Next, the NY Times continues its coverage on voter purging and pushing for better methods and databases for name matching.  The NY Times also alleges that many of these purges may be due to partisan politics by individuals who are attempting to prevent certain groups of voters from casting their ballots.  Shocking!!!

Some of these problems are no doubt the result of honest mistakes, but in far too many cases they appear to be driven by partisanship. While there are almost no examples in recent memory of serious fraud at the polls, Republicans have been pressing for sweeping voter purges in many states. They have also fought to make it harder to enroll new voters. Voting experts say there could be serious problems at the polls on Nov. 4.

When voters die or move to a new address, or when duplicate registrations are found, a purge is necessary to uphold the integrity of the rolls. New registrations must also be properly screened so only eligible voters get added. The trouble is that these tasks generally occur in secret, with no chance for voters or their advocates to observe or protest when mistakes are made.

Speaking of partisan politics and attempts of preventing people from voting, The Las Vegas Review Journal reports that the Nevada Secretary of State has rejected a request from the NV GOP to prevent new voter from casting their votes due to incomplete voter registrations.  Republicans trying to prevent voters from casting their ballot, hmmm where else have I heard of this? 

Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller ruled Wednesday that voters whose registrations were on time, but incomplete or incorrect, may cast regular ballots after correcting their applications.

The legal interpretation was a response to a letter from Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, who argued that voter registrations that were not complete by the deadline should disqualify those people from voting.

Miller cited the statute that allows would-be voters 15 days to correct missing or bad information in their registrations, writing, "Nevada law provides the manner in which an ... applicant may update or correct the voter information, and may do so without losing his right to vote."

Las Vegas, NV - As a resident of Nevada, I don't get the opportunity to vote in other states so my experience with voting systems is somewhat limited.  However, Nevada is one of the pioneering states on the issue of Early Voting, and I have worked on campaigns around the country to feel pretty comfortable talking about this process on a national basis.  As I have been monitoring the news coverage of Early Voting around the country, my initial reaction is pride that other states are allowing Early Voting as an option, and pride that so many American voters are taking advantage of this process. 

There has been one aspect of the news coverage that is somewhat surprising to me, and that is the wait times being reported by news agencies regarding voters who are wanting to vote early.  CNN reports that states like Florida and Ohio are experiencing lines lasting up to 3 hours.  Generally, people choose to vote early to avoid long waits on election day.  I know that this process is still new to many states,, but these wait times are concerning. Nevada experiences some of the highest early voting participation in the country, approximately 60% of all voters will cast a ballot before election day compared to 20-30% for these other states.  Nevada is also experiencing record turnout during Early Voting almost double the turnout of 2004, and yet the longest wait times in Nevada are about 45 minutes. 

I am concerned on for a couple of reasons.  Election departments have noticed that this election cycle has been producing record turnout since the primaries, where counties were running out of ballots.  This high turnout should not be surprising to anyone.  Although this process is new to many voters and many poll workers, our elections officials should have been prepared for this.  It is great that so many people are voting in this election cycle, but if elections officials are being overwhelmed now, what is going to happen on election day? 

This is a serious issue that Secretaries of State and election officials around the country should be assessing now.  After having two presidential election cycles in which voters around the country were skeptical about the results, we should be taking every precaution to ensure that every voter has a chance to vote, and the the public can have trust in the outcome.