Simon Rosenberg's blog

West Virginia. 

Then NARAL.  Edwards.  Lots of new supers.  Boom.  Obama strikes back.  Hard.

If Senator Clinton doesn't announce a new round of new money in the next few days, this could be over very soon.  As I wrote the other day, it really is all about the money now. 

Two central dynamics are now taking over the Presidential campaign - the enormous, even historic, structural advantage of the Democrats, and Obama's new "surge", brought about through the early stages of his imminent victory over Senator Clinton.

Poll after poll these last few years have documented the emergence of a whole new political dynamic in American politics - the end of the conservative ascendency, the collapse of the GOP brand and the rise of the Democratic brand. Simply put, the country is more Democratic today than it has been since at least 1982 and perhaps all the way back to the 1960s. Today's Washington Post has a new national poll which again captures the yawning gap between the two parties, and the strong wind blowing behind the Democrats as they head into 2008 (for further evidence of this note huge fundraising and turnout advantage for the Dems so far in 2008).

A big looming question over the Presidential race has always been would the Democratic nominee be able to match the 10-15 spread between the two parties, resulting in what could be a truly realigning election and the dawn of a new progressive era? So far there has been little evidence of this, and indications have largely pointed to a very close general election.

But in the last week, there are signs that Obama's slowly emerging "victory" over Senator Clinton is beginning to alter that dynamic. Winners often get a bounce from their victory. It can be a few points or much more. And given that Senator Clinton is still in the race, it would be surprising for the Obama bounce to be more than a few points. But looking at the Post poll, the new LA Times poll, Rasmussen and Gallup, there is evidence that Obama is in the early stages of a bounce. He now leads Senator Clinton in all these polls by a larger margin than he has at any time in the campaign, consistently in double digits now (destroying her argument to be a stronger general election candidate). But he also is now starting to show three, six and in the Post poll, seven point advantages over Senator McCain.

While the Post makes the case that at this point McCain is outperforming the GOP and is showing remarkable early strength, I think that interpretation, while partially true, does not really capture what is happening in the race (particularly on the day GOPer Bob Barr entered the race, again showing how hard it is going to be for McCain to take full control over his party). Given the nature of the Democratic race, we really have no idea what a true McCain-Obama match up looks like. Senator Obama has yet to go through his ascension to be the Democratic chief, and all the public benefit that accrues from winning. This week, we are starting to see the public in the early stages of seeing Obama now as the Democratic nominee, and his numbers are rising across the board. But has he has not yet really won yet. I don't think at this stage he has risen as far has he will once Senator Clinton drops out of the race. He is in a sort of "mid-bounce." Which given that Senator Obama is now up mid- single digits now without having fully won, and given that the structural gap between the two parties is between 10-15 points, means he is likely to keep climbing over the next few weeks.

So, to me, this new Post poll should not be a comfort to the GOP, but yet another reminder of the catastrophic legacy of the age of Bush, and another early sign of what may be an historic realigning election to come in 2008 (the Mississippi House Special Election will be another sign).

For more on the dawn of a new political era, be sure to read our recent magazine article, The 50-Year Strategy: A New Progressive Era.

The Rasmussen daily track has seen a 15 point shift from Clinton to Obama in the last ten days. The last two nights of their daily track now has Obama up over Clinton by 11 points, the largest margin yet recorded, and him up over McCain by 4, 47-43. Obama appears to be getting a "bounce" from Tuesday night.

Given the generic numbers for President and Congress (Dems up 10-15 points), I fully expect that once Obama secures the nomination, and Clinton ends her campaign, for him to get a significant bump and to be in front of McCain by at least high single digits. This new poll is the first evidence that we may be seeing this scenerio beginning to be playing out already. It will be interesting to see what other polls show in the coming days, and how the media coverage of Clinton's likely victory in WV affects this possible new dynamic.

Given her already weakened financial state, if a national swing like this is actually happening and shows up in other polls over the next few days, it is going to make it very hard for Senator Clinton to go on past next week.

We will see.

Sat 4pm Update - Gallup now also shows significant movement to Obama. Again still early to say this is a definitive across the board bounce, but these 2 major tracks have both now shown real movement to Obama these last few days.

The NYTimes has a very bad piece for the Clinton campaign today. It details how cash-strapped the campaign has become.

It has been my belief all this week that the most critical moment for the Clinton campaign would be today through this weekend. It would be at that point at which the candidate would have enough information about her financial situation to make a determination on whether she could afford to proceed. There can be little doubt now that the Clintons have poured more money into her race than almost any other candidate in recent political history. It is their wealth that is keeping the campaign afloat. Believing they would do better than they did in Indiana and North Carolina, they borrwed and spent heavily, and have put her campaign deep into debt.

Initial reports indicate that Senator Clinton has not been raising a lot of money this week. It takes $1 million every day or two to keep a campaign like hers going. If she is only taking in $2 million to $3 million a week, she will add another $15 million to $25 million in debt over the next month. That is a lot of money. Politicians traditionally don't get out of a campaign because they are losing. They get out because they run out of money. And it sure appears that Senator Clinton is out of money, with little prospect that she can change that in the next few weeks.

If Senator Clinton somehow decides that she has enough money to get through the weekend, I think she will stay in through the June primaries. But right now, today, with stories like this one in the NYTimes, the financial reality of her weakened standing is beginning to become clear, and this more than any endorsement, poll or issue will determine whether Senator Clinton continues through June. 

In addition to sounding like she has been trying to rewrite the rules in the middle of the game, I think the strident rhetoric by the Clinton campaign on the sanctioning of FL and MI has done grave damage to their campaign. Most of the superdelegates, who at this point have the power to decide the outcome of the race, are from the other 48 states and 6 territories. They played by the rules. They are not interested in rewarding FL and MI for bad behavior and have resented the approach taken by the Clintons.

In addition, Senator Clinton's campaign agreed to the sanctioning of Florida and Michigan. If the voters of those states were disinfranchised then she was instrumental in bringing that about. The superdelegates in these other places understand all this better than anyone, and I think her wild approach to resolving the unfortunate problem of FL and MI has ended up being a major cause of her terrible showing with superdelegates these last 2 months. Like many of us who understood the system, and her role in creating it, the campaign's consistent whining and strident rhetoric has spoken very badly of her character. To many this episode has reinforced the notion that she and her husband were her willing to say and do anything to get elected, including what appears to be, let us say, lying and cheating.

Given that no one campaigned in either place, or that Barack was not even on the ballot in MI, these states did not have legitimate elections. Counting the outcome towards the eventual delegate count is simply not an option. The idea of somehow splitting each of them 50/50 to each of the 2 candidates, and reducing their total number by some percentage, now seems the most fair way to proceed.

For the Clinton campaign it is time to let go of the FL and MI fantasy. It has done a great deal of damage already to her standing with far too many.

Update: For more on the state of the Democratic primary race visit here.

Update Thur pm - Amazingly, Senator Clinton sent a letter today to Senator Obama about this very issue. Read it here. I first weighed in, strongly, on this issue the night of the Florida primary, and have felt very strongly since then that this was a terrible decision by the Clinton campaign.

Before I weigh in with fresh thoughts, check out this recent post, Is Obama Recovering?, and this one, So, after Pennsylvania, where are we?

More soon.

Update: The African-American vote looked like it came in very heavy for Senator Obama tonight, and may have been the key to his impressive win in North Carolina. For more on this check out this excellent recent essay by Tom Schaller, who will be part of our exciting event this Friday, New Tools, New Audiences.

With his win in North Carolina, Senator Obama has ensured that the fundamental dynamic in the race - that he is winning and she is losing - has not changed. With fewer delegates left for Senator Clinton to win, the end result tonight is that Senator Obama is now ever closer to becoming the Democratic nominee. After a few tough weeks this is a very good night for Senator Obama.

Update 7:57pm - Why is Lou Dobbs on my TV? He is truly one of the biggest asses on tv. It is amazing everyone is being nice to him. CNN and Time Warner should be ashamed.

Update 8:00pm - On CNN Schneider and O'Brien are talking about how Obama's struggle with non-college white votes could be fatal in the fall. Why then is Obama even or beating McCain in the general election polls? Is it that the electorate has changed? For more on this check out my recent essay, On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy which includes a link to our big recent article, The 50 Year Strategy.

Update 8:15pm - Do the Clinton people tonight now regret their gas tax strategy? In retrospect was their aggressive approach on the gas tax instrumental to moving the conversation from Wright to the struggle of every day people, and giving Obama a break from a news dynamic that was deeply effecting his standing? In response to this offensive by the Clinton campaign the Obama campaign effectively countered, and made the struggle of every day people central to their argument in both states. I think there can be no doubt now that the way Obama closed was a strategic breakthrough for his campaign, which has struggled to make this critical issue central to his spirited fight.

Update 8:45pm - I love Donna Brazile.  She has been great tonight. 

Update 9:15pm - Another Tuesday night. Another night at the church of Obama. It is good to hear his powerful and uplifting voice again, and not all the nasty and crazy talk of the last few weeks. Somehow Senator Clinton's speech now seems vital, critical, essential. Can she make a pivot, a turn, and begin to lift us up and inspire us all at this important moment in history, and not be just strong and tough but also wise and generous?

Update 10:23pm - Lake County. Holding their results past primetime. Anyone think Obama supporters run that county?

And man is Lanny Davis a seriously bad spokesperson for the Clinton campaign. All he is talking about now is process, griping, rewriting the rules, complaining about Florida and Michigan. It is an awful whinefest. The tenacious and spirited Senator Clinton deserves better.

Two pieces in the New York Times over the last two days caught my eye, and while not obviously related at first, are two parts of a single terrible tale about how our regard for time worn American values have been abandoned in the age of Bush. 

The first was by Nick Kristoff yesterday, and focused on the horrible stories from those who have been released from Guantanamo.  There can be no question now that this awful prison must be shut down, and that this era of rendition, torture and secret prisons brought to an end.  

The second story comes from the front page of the Times today, and looks at another unaccountable American prison system - this one for immigrants here on our own soil.  For those reading this blog, they will know how much we despise our current system of immigration, and how hard we've worked to fix it.  But what is not well understood by many Americans is how unlike our system of justice the judicial system for immigrants is in this country.  Immigration officials need no warrants, and can arrest anyone for suspicion of violation of immigration laws.  When arrested, the accused often disappear into a patchwork quilt of prisons, and it can take weeks for family members to find the missing person.  The accused has no habeas corpus rights, and does not have to be granted access to the outside world.   They can be held for years without trial, or any action being taken, and often are.

The Times piece captures the Kafkaesque nature of immigration justice in the United States.  But what is worse, and it is beginning to get even more attention, is that American citizens are being disappeared into this system.  Imagine if you were caught up in one of these raids.  How would you prove that you are an American citizen? Or a legal resident?  Driver's licenses don't prove anything.  And this gets to a deeper reality also brought up by the U.S. Supreme Court decision last week about Voter IDs - the manner in which we prove our identity in the United States is very much a mess.    

There are many reasons for reforming our immigration system.  But one of the most urgent is how suspected violators are being treated. The United States of America has managed in the age of Bush to be now regularly and routinely, abroad and at home, disappearing people into dark and unaccountable prison systems with very little hope of reasonable redress.  Of all the things that made America different and better than other nations, it was that here, in this nation, the government could not disappear those who it did not like.  If we have lost that, my friends, we have lost a great deal as a people and as a nation.

Obama's new "minute" ads (see Travis' post) are a vast improvement over what I have felt has been his meandering and unfocused media campaign in recent months. These ads reintroduce Obama to voters, do not assume voters understand who he is, and do a much better job at showing he is in touch with the central issue of the race - the struggle of every day people.

What happens on Tuesday is anybody's guess. But the drama continues to be can Senator Clinton somehow change the dynamic of the race enough to forstall her inevitable defeat (see this New York Times piece for an excellent summary of the state of the race)? Can she get a big enough "win" on Tuesday to begin truly challenging the "Obama is winning this thing" narrative?

As of today, it seems that Obama's very bad week has begun to turn. He won Guam. He has continued to win important superdelegates, including NDN's Chairman Joe Andrew. The Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracks today suggest Obama's Wright-induced slide in the national polls has abated, and in both polls he has gained a little ground in the last two days. Reviews for his "Meet the Press" appearance have been strong. Obama's media is giving more help down the stretch than we've seen in sometime. It is now fair to say that this week the Obama campaign has demonstrated the kind of counterpunching capacity many believe has been lacking in the last few months, and will be requiired for him to become the President.

For Senator Clinton, this is yet again another make or break Tuesday. She has without doubt had a strong last couple of weeks. But I believe she will now have to win both Indiana and North Carolina to have any chance of changing the central dynamic of the race, which is still very much stacked against her. Her chance to win the race outright has increased a great deal in recent weeks, but with the remaining states likely to break 50/50 Obama/Clinton, this Tuesday night is shaping up to be another nailbiting night of cable TV news, and one that may be among the most important of a lot of important Tuesdays this year.

Check out their take on the Lincoln Douglas debates.

I agree with the sentiment in Frank Rich's column today. Old Man McCain is one of the worst candidates the GOP could have chosen this year, and one of the wobbliest major candidates we've seen run for President in modern times.

When the media scrutiny comes - and it will come - it will not be kind (see here for the latest on his serial bending/breaking of campaign laws this election).

Update: To us at NDN nothing more has spoken to the character of John McCain than what he has done on the immigration issue. As Andres wrote recently, in 2007, when collapsing in the GOP primaries, McCain made the very political decision to walk from his own immigration reform bill and was thus instrumental in the collapse of the Senate bill. On this matter, there is no way to ascribe virtue to what he has done. At the moment of truth he showed cowardice, not courage, and betrayed a community he once championed. He has since repeatedly said he would not support his own bill if it came back to the Senate.

To us at NDN this one example - and there are more - shows how far McCain has fallen since the heyday of the Straight Talk Express. In his desperate last attempt to win the GOP nomination over the past year John McCain became a craven politician, tossing long held beliefs on taxes, immigration, torture, campaign finance over board faster than folks have gotten tossed from American Idol. While this strategy may have been effective in winning him the nomination it also needs to become a central part of how the country comes to understand who the McCain of 2008 - not the McCain of 2000 - has become.

His dispiriting ideological implosion speaks to the larger collapse of conservative and GOP politics brought about by the Bush Presidency, a new reality of American politics that may be with us for a very long time.