It is a very warm and pretty day here in New Hampshire. Turnout in this small state, just 2 Congressional districts all in all, should be very high. Everyone will be watching to see who votes. In Iowa, two-thirds of everyone who voted did so for a Democrat. Obama, Clinton and Edwards all got more votes than Huckabee. In NH, it is much easier for independents to vote in either party's primary, making another big lopsided Democratic vote possible again.
In many ways this intensity gap is the biggest story of the campaign. The Democratic field has outraised the GOP field by over a hundred million dollars. Participation in Iowa shattered, blew apart, any reasonable projections. Democrats are a political cycle ahead of the GOP, re-orienting their politics around the new internet model we've discussed so often here, allowing them to build much larger campaigns and take advantage of the huge cry for change that is ringing out across America. All of this should have the Republicans very worried about what might happen in 2008.
Remember the Democrats won 2006 by about 53-46, one of the best showings of the Democratic Party in a national vote in the last 100 years. In all the generic head to head polls, pitting a generic Democrat against a generic Republican, Democrats lead by 10 points or so, with most results coming in mid 40s for the Ds to the mid 30s for the Rs. The country has lost confidence in the modern GOP and is giving Democrats a shot, and many, many people are excited about what the Democrats are doing. As I wrote yesterday, the narrative out of the Bloomberg camp is that neither party is getting it done, ready to lead. So far the American people simply don't agree.
In addition to seeing an old friend yesteday, Ambassador George Bruno, and talking to other friends and reporters, I went to two events last night - Hillary in Salem and Barack in Concord. Everything I saw and heard confirmed the narrative playing out in the media today - that Barack Obama is transforming this campaign and that he and John McCain appear poised for victory (click here for my initial take yesterday and review quotes of mine in the Boston Globe and the San Francisco Chronicle this morning). I don't want to raise expectations but I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama win by 15-20 percent today. Incredibly he received 16 of the 23 votes from the two first in the state in the first in the nation primary (see below). With Barack's strength in South Carolina, the Nevada Caucus a week from Saturday is turning into one of the last places Obamamo might be stopped.
I am going to write more later about the events and my impressions of the candidates, but for now I summarize by saying that the Democratic nomination has become Barack Obama's to lose, and on the Republican side it still seems hard to see who has the political strength to win their nomination. McCain may come out of New Hampshire with momentum, but he is a far from perfect candidte, with little organization and money, and is deeply distrusted by major and important elements of the GOP coalition. A low 30s showing in NH does not make a nominee. With Romney and Paul's money, as well as Huckabee's grass roots appeal, the GOP campaign may take a long time to resolve itself.
Update: The Post's Dan Balz has a very good analysis of where the race stands today.
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