The Washington Times published an article this week about the GOP's opportunity to reverse losses among Latinos with John McCain's candidacy. There is no doubt that the GOP has lost support among Latino voters. They have methodically sought to demonize Latinos during the debate on immigration, and have adopted other tactics to alienate Latinos such as promoting English Only proposals. NDN and our affiliate NPI have documented the importance of being able to communicate with Latinos in Spanish, and reports have also shown the increased performance of Spanish language television stations like Univision playing a larger role in American media. In extreme cases of demagoguery on the immigration issue, State Republican Parties such as the Nevada Republican Party have adopted resolutions denying citizenship to children born in the United States. This tactic of punishing innocent children is not only unconstitutional, it is an absurd suggestion from the Party that is supposedly fighting for family values.
The immigration issue has been more prominent in Border States such as Arizona, the home state of John McCain, and for many years McCain had been the voice of reason on immigration in the Republican Party. However, as McCain campaigned for President for much of the past year, the conservative voters attacked McCain for his support of immigrant rights. As his campaign began to tank both financially and in the polls, McCain changed course to appease the conservative right and in the process betrayed Latinos and those in the immigration battle. So extreme was this shift that McCain walked away from his own bill, and has even stated that he would not currently vote for the immigration bill that bears his own name. Listen to John McCain here:
In addition, the Washington Post reported earlier this month that "In a closed door meeting with House Republicans last week, he again assured conservatives that he had gotten the message. He had been beaten up badly on the immigration issue, participants said he told them..." (He being McCain)
During the course of these events, Latinos have flocked in significant numbers to support Democratic candidates (Read NDN's recent report on the Latino electorate). The Democratic Party enjoyed huge successes in the Congressional Elections of 2006 due to Latino voters, and are poised to make even greater gains in 2008 with increased support from Latinos. Many in the GOP fear the inevitable, and are hoping to stem the tide. GOP strategist Mathew Dowd has stated that in order for the GOP to win the White House in 2008, they will need at least 40% of the Latino vote. The perception among many in the GOP, is that McCain is best suited to accomplish this goal for the GOP due to his previous support of immigrant rights and his relationship with Latino leaders. However, while McCain may be more able to gain audience with Latino voters, will his party and its candidates be willing to do the same?
We have seen over the years that the GOP has been overtaken by the conservative right, the same conservative right that has spearheaded these anti-immigrant actions, and the same conservative right that is intent on continuing these anti-immigrant activities. Currently, McCain is struggling to unite the Republican Party, and has not been embraced by the conservative right of the GOP. How will McCain be able to convince Latinos to support him based on his previous support of immigrant rights, when his party and its candidates are still fighting to demonize Latinos? Furthermore, McCain has already acknowledged that he is more concerned with appeasing the conservative right, than he is in keeping his principles and defending his previous position in immigration. If McCain changes course on immigration again, he will only be showing that he can't be trusted on the issue by anyone and further strain his relationship with conservative voters. McCain has painted himself into a corner and there is no solution for him to regain footing with Latinos.
McCain's inability to attract Latino voters to his candidacy has been very clear during the primary contests this year. Even in own state of Arizona, McCain captured less than 22% of all Latinos who voted. This is the state where McCain is the most popular, and his support among Latinos is no greater than that of Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election. McCain's candidacy may look very promising to many who hope to keep the White House under GOP control, but I just don't see any scenario under which McCain could recapture support from Latino voters to help him win the White House.
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