It has become very clear that McCain will do/say whatever it takes to win the White House. Yesterday, I posted that on McCain's effort to court Hispanic voters. McCain also chose to use Cinco de Mayo as an opportunity to appeal to Hispanic voters. Reuters published an article, McCain woos Hispanics and launches Spanish web site, and the Washington Times published an article by Stephen Dinan, McCain courts Hispanic voters, that both focus on McCain's attempt to reverse trends among the Hispanic electorate which have fled the GOP in droves over the last two election cycles. Both articles touched on the fact that Republican Party's anti-immigrant message has cost Republicans support among Hispanic voters. They both also highlight that McCain has changed his position on immigration. Hispanics should make no mistake that McCain betrayed the immigrant community during the immigration debate and walked away from his own bill. McCain now says that he supports an "enforcement first" approach to immigration despite the fact that poll after poll shows that the American public wants a comprehensive solution to this problem. McCain has decided to put politics ahead of policy. Excerpts of the stories are below:
Reuters
Hispanic support for the Republican Party has ebbed in recent months, following a bruising battle over illegal immigration.
Republican lawmakers sank a comprehensive immigration bill last June that would have created a path to citizenship for many of the 12 million mostly Hispanic illegal immigrants living in the shadows in the United States.
McCain's support for a broad immigration overhaul that would also have put some illegal workers on a path toward U.S. citizenship angered many conservatives in his party. He later said Congress should focus on border security first.
Washington Times
Sen. John McCain said yesterday that Republicans have shed support among Hispanic voters because of the party's get-tough approach to illegal immigration, but he predicted that his enforcement-then- legalization approach will rebuild those bridges.
McCain's trouble is not just that be betrayed Hispanics on immigration, it's that he betrayed Hispanics to appease the Conservatives in his party who are adamantly opposed to any real solution to America's broken immigration solution. I have stated before that McCain cannot have it both ways. He will have to decide which constituency is more important to his presidential ambitions. McCain's press conference made it very clear yesterday that he has chosen the conservative wing of the Republican Party over Hispanics. His change on immigration is a clear signal to Conservatives that he is willing to reform himself to their standards as noted in yesterday's The Hill in an article by Alexander Bolton, McCain courts right wing.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will launch a new push Tuesday to ingratiate himself with social conservatives who mistrust him but whose support is vital to his hopes of winning the White House.
Right-wing leaders, who know he needs their backing, are working on a list of demands to pin him down on choosing judges with a conservative philosophy.
The two sides are engaged in a minuet that will determine the shape of this year's Republican presidential platform.
So how is it that McCain got here? Please take a moment to review what has happened to McCain. McCain won 70% of the Hispanic electorate in Arizona in his previous re-election to the United States Senate in 2004 proving that his previous positions were popular among Hispanics. In 2006, McCain continued to champion immigration reform bucking his national party who chose to alienate Hispanic voters. In 2006, the Republican Party lost both chambers of Congress. McCain pursues his presidential ambitions in 2007. His campaign struggles financially and in the polls. Conservatives attack McCain for supporting immigration. McCain wins Florida by courting Hispanic voters which catapults him as the GOP frontrunner. Guiliani, and Mitt Romney drop out ensuring that McCain is the presumptive nominee for the Republican Party. McCain then chooses to change position on immigration to appease Conservatives. Conservatives continue to attack McCain. McCain continues to seek approval from conservatives.
I know this sounds a bit simplistic, but in a nutshell this sums it up. McCain wins, despite opposition from Conservatives, with the support of Hispanic voters, and he chooses Conservatives over Hispanics. Talk about betrayal. I am convinced that McCain knows that he cannot win the majority of Hispanic voters, and is accepting that he needs to keep his percentage as close to 35% as possible. He probably assumes that his new messaging will deceive just enough Hispanic voters to get him to that percentage. In addition, he has probably learned that Conservatives would rather stay home or skip the presidential contest and vote down ballot, than vote for him. Although most of the media has focused on the Democratic race and the impact that the prolonged Primary will have on the General election, I think the bigger question is why hasn't McCain been able to unite the Republican Party and what danger does this pose to Republicans in the General election?
My prediction is that McCain will not reach 35% support among Hispanic voters in the General election, and that Conservatives will not show up for him in sufficient numbers. It is problem supporting a candidate that you just can't trust. Let's see how the McCain metamorphosis continues.
UPDATE:
CQ Politics also published a very relevant article on this topic yesterday, McCain's Immigration Pivot. Read the intro below:
After his immigration overhaul bill collapsed in the Senate last year, John McCain transformed himself into a "border security first" presidential candidate with remarkable speed.
His message, over and over again in the Republican primaries, was that he'd heard the voters. They wanted the borders locked down first, and that would be his first priority as president. He basically stopped talking about the other parts of the Senate bill, like the guest worker program and that "path to citizenship" for millions of illegal immigrants.
That wasn't too surprising while he was competing for Republican votes, but his colleagues who worked with him on the bill - including GOP Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida - always read his remarks as a sign that he'd do the other things later, not that he'd abandoned them entirely.
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