Given the fact that the Democratic Primary race for President is just more exciting than the Republican Primary race for President, I can understand that people/pundits/media would normally just pay more attention to the Democratic race over the Republican race. However, over the past few weeks many in the media have focused their commentary on the possibility that the prolonged Democratic Primary may hurt the eventual Democratic nominee in the General election this November. I think that, as with any primary battle, there will be some residual loss of support for the eventual nominee, but none greater than normal.
One of the main reasons for the excitement in the Democratic race that has generated record turnout is that Democrats are tired of this Republican administration and their failed policies and mismanagement of our nation's affairs. In the end, I believe that the Democrats desire for change will overcome any animosity from a primary battle. In addition, both Democratic candidates and their surrogates will make sure that they encourage their supporters to support the nominee. This is likely to happen because both candidates will remain a powerful force in American politics regardless of the outcome in the Presidential primary, and they will need to work together after the election.
However, this has not been the case on the Republican side. Although McCain assumed frontrunner status for the Republican Party after Tsunami Tuesday in February, he has not been able to unite the Party's base around his candidacy. Yesterday, I posed the question in my post about McCain's inability to unite the Republican's base around his candidacy, and the problems this may pose his candidacy in the General election. The NY Times published an article today by Michael Cooper, For the Republicans, It's McCain (and Others) that highlights the fact that a significant portion of Republicans voters refuse to support McCain. I am glad that the media is paying attention to this dynamic because I think that it will definitely alter the strategy for the General election.
Amid the chatter about whether the Democrats would be able to unite around one of their candidates was an interesting nugget. Incomplete returns on Tuesday night showed that more than 20 percent of those who voted in the Republican primary in Indiana voted for someone other than Senator John McCain, the party's presumptive nominee.
With 74 percent of the state reporting, Mr. McCain was winning Indiana with 77.3 percent of the vote, according to The Associated Press. That would be considered a robust margin on most election nights. But consider the competition.
If you look at the contests that have occurred since March 5th, McCain has faced consistent resistance from many Republican voters.
March 4th
Ohio: 60%
Rhode Island: 65%
Texas: 51%
Vermont: 72%
March 11th
Mississippi: 79%
April 22nd
Pennsylvania: 73%
May 6th
Indiana: 77%
North Carolina: 73%
What does it say that more than 1 in 5 Republican voters have refused to vote for him since he secured the Republican nomination? The only plausible explanation is that Conservatives are not confident/comfortable with McCain. In my post yesterday, I also claimed that McCain has probably learned that Conservatives would rather stay home or vote down ballot than support his candidacy. McCain has spent the past several months convincing Conservatives that he deserves their support, and he is failing at convincing them. The Washington Post published an article by Juliet Eilperin, McCain Says He Would Put Conservatives on Supreme Court that focuses on McCain's continued efforts to persuade Conservatives to support his candidacy.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee said that Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. "would serve as the model for my own nominees, if that responsibility falls to me," highlighting the gap between Republicans and Democrats on the question of who should sit on the Supreme Court. Both justices have established strong conservative records since Bush appointed them, and the appointment of one more conservative to the nation's highest court could tip the balance on issues such as abortion, discrimination, civil liberties and private property.
If 20% of the Republican base chooses to walk out on McCain, he will have to pick up those votes elsewhere. Maybe he could reach out to Hispanics, oh wait he has already betrayed them, and sold them down a river. This strategy may have been a bad bet for McCain, but then again McCain has never been a good gambler.
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