Yesterday I posted a Gallup poll that showed Obama leading McCain by 33 points among Hispanic voters. Today, I came across a Survey USA poll that also shows Obama leading McCain among Hispanics by 33 points. Although the Survey USA poll shows a higher number of undecided Hispanics, it is important to note that it was taken before Obama officially claimed the nomination. The Gallup poll shows that the both candidates benefited equally after Obama clinched the nomination leaving about 9 percent of Hispanics undecided. This my friends is where the battle will be fought. This 9 percent of Hispanics who have not made up their mind will make all the difference in the national election.
Senator McCain's campaign claims that they will outperform Bush's numbers of 40% are highly unlikely, even if he were to attract the remaining 9% that will only leave him at 38%. It is also important to note, that McCain has been the presumptive nominee for several months and has already launched his Hispanic outreach efforts. Obama has yet to begin any concerted efforts to court Hispanics in the General election. With McCain starting this far behind, while Obama has yet to begin, it is unlikely that McCain will be able to catch up. Let's also keep in context that Obama will have more campaign funds than McCain, and will not be outspent on Spanish language advertising. Of course, Senator Obama has much work to do to secure his support among Hispanics, but these results have him at a great starting point.
Also, I have to assume that at least 5% of Hispanics, who vote, will not vote for either candidate which means that there is about 4% left that each candidate can pick up. In our report, Hispanics Rising II , we quote several prominent Republican advisers who state that if the Republican nominee fails to secure between 38%-40% of the Hispanic electorate, then they will lose the White House. These numbers do not bode well for Senator McCain.
Post new comment