According to our recent NDN report, Hispanics Rising II, at 15% of the U.S. population today, Hispanics are now America's largest "minority" group, and are projected to be 29% of all those living in the United States by 2050.
A majority of Hispanic adults in the United States today are immigrants. Recognizing that it will be hard to build a 21st century political majority without this fast-growing electorate, Hispanics have become one of the most volatile and contested swing voting blocs in American politics. George W. Bush's success with this community was critical to both of his electoral victories.
In 2005, the immigration debate introduced a new dynamic in this electorate. The GOP rejected the more enlightened approach to Hispanics championed by the Bush family, and adopted a much more anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic approach. This approach was instrumental in swinging Hispanics significantly to the Democrats and increasing their turnout in the 2006 elections.
Initial data from 2008 show that these trends continue unabated. Hispanics have voted in record numbers, tripling their turnout from the 2004 primaries and increasing their share of the vote in the Democratic primaries by 66%. Seventy-eight percent of Hispanics who voted in the presidential primaries this year have voted Democratic.
This emergence of a new, highly energized and pro-Democratic Hispanic electorate could have an enormous impact on the presidential election. At least four of the most important battleground states have significant Hispanic populations. U.S. Sen. John McCain is not in a strong position to change this dynamic, given that he abandoned his support for immigration reform and arguably abandoned the Hispanic community. Indeed, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has consistently polled ahead of McCain among Hispanics in recent polls.
Both candidates have been heavily courting Hispanics in recent weeks -- at the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) conference a few weeks back, earlier this week at the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) and next week at the National Council of La Raza (NCLR) conference (which Andres Ramirez, NDN's Vice President for Hispanic Programs, and Zuraya Tapia-Alfaro, NDN's Advocacy Director, will attend).
McCain is known for his "Straight Talk Express," but when reading news accounts from his recent appearances at these events, you wouldn't know it. It seems as if McCain just doesn't know what to say about immigration -- does he stick to his original, courageous stance of comprehensive immigration reform and risk alienating the conservative element of his party, or does he turn his back on his own immigration bill (which he already did) and risk losing a voting bloc that may very well determine who our next president is? While the senator from Arizona seems to have chosen the latter (the result -- Obama consistently trounces McCain in polls of Hispanics), McCain seems to be trying to repair some of the damage with warm, fuzzy language ("There are 12 million people here and they are here illegally but they are God's children, they are God's children," McCain said, pounding the podium for emphasis as he repeated the words.) or just plain avoiding the subject.
So who are you going to call to help sort all of this out?
I have the answer:
Just launched today, Immigration08.com is a team of four experts (including our own Simon Rosenberg) who have joined together to analyze the politics of immigration and serve as a resource for the media and others who are being bombarded fast and furiously with press releases and talking points on immigration from political candidates. Simon's teammates include Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America's Voice; Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research; and Pete Brodnitz, Principal of Benenson Strategy Group. This is a pretty heavy-hitting group who will be weighing in on a regular basis. The team also launched a new Web site today:
Be sure to check the Immigration08.com Web site often for new additions and articles on immigration. Also please check this blog daily for new content.
The Hispanic vote is going to have a huge impact this fall in races all across the nation and in seats that were once seemingly safe in GOP hands. In the latter instance, check out this article by Politico's Josh Kraushaar, who recently talked with Simon about races in southern Florida in which younger Cuban-Americans may very well help send a Democrat or two to the U.S. Congress, as a 2006 NDN poll suggested they might. Note of interest: one of those Democrats is Joe Garcia, who previously was NDN's Vice President of Hispanic Programs.
We are very excited to be part of Immigration08.com and hope that you will use it as a resource during what promises to be an incredibly interesting countdown to November 4.
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