Super Tuesday

First it was Iowa. Then it was New Hampshire. Then came Michigan, Nevada, Florida and South Carolina and still no frontrunner emerged. Now it is Super Tuesday and no candidate has claimed frontrunner status in the race; and it looks like we may be no closer to having a Democratic Nominee tomorrow morning as we were when this election began on November 3rd, 2004. Of course, this race sets itself apart from those prior.

Like all classic events it is a truly special moment in our collective histories. Since Super Tuesday began in 1988, it has been a day for the eventual nominees to separate themselves from the pack, like Secretariat at the 1973 Belmont Stakes. This election, however, is more like the 1978 Triple Crown with Affirmed and Alydar, arguably the greatest rivalry in Triple Crown history. No candidate has ceded any ground, fighting down to the wire. With proportional delegation, the Democratic race surely will continue into the next month.

So what is ahead for the candidates' around the back stretch?

Saturday, February 9th

Louisiana, 67 Delegates

Washington, 97 Delegates

Nebraska, 31 Delegates

Virgin Islands, 9 Delegates

Sunday, February 10th

Maine, 34 Delegates

Tuesday, February 12th (The Potomac Primary)

Virginia, 101 Delegates

Maryland, 99 Delegates

District of Columbia, 37 Delegates

Tuesday, February 19th

Wisconsin, 92 Delegates

Hawaii, 29 Delegates

Tuesday, March 4th

Texas, 228 Delegates

Ohio, 161 Delegates

Rhode Island, 32 Delegates

Vermont, 23 Delegates

Saturday's Primaries and Caucuses in Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands - not to mention the Maine Democratic Caucus on Sunday - could possibly grant frontrunner status to a candidate. Then on Tuesday, the Potomac Primary will take center stage as Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia put 237 delegates up for grabs. After that, the candidates will have a week to prepare themselves for the Hawaii Caucus and the Wisconsin Primary. Unfortunately for the candidates, their time will better be spent on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field Wisconsin than the sunny shores of Maui.

By the following Tuesday (after Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island cast their 444 delegates) we should have a frontrunner as the candidates race to the wire. If legendary Churchill Downs announcer Dave Johnson were calling the race it might sound something like this:

"The Candiates come around the 1/2 way pole. Obama and Clinton are neck in neck as they round the far turn with Gravel trailing by 45 lengths after stumbling out of the gate...As they enter Louisiana Obama puts himself ahead by a neck...Clinton only a stride behind as they pull into the Potomac...Closing ground it's still Obama by a nose...The candidates head into Wisconsin dead even, both holding on with every breath they have left...Down the stretch they come, Texas and Ohio...Clinton and Obama going back and forth, both driving for the wire and it's..."

Tomorrow, February 2nd, The Seer of Seers, the Prognosticator of Prognosticators, Punxsutawney Phil*, will emerge from his stately stump atop Gobbler's Knob outside of Punxsutawney, Pa. and will decide the fate of the winter for the nation based on his shadow. Three days later, on February 5, voters in 24 states might decide the fate of the presidential nominees. As groundhog lore goes, if the groundhog comes out of his hole on February 2nd and sees his shadow, he returns to his underground cavern to await six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't see his shadow, spring will arrive early. In the case of Super Tuesday, if a candidate can cast a shadow over his or her opponents it may mean their nomination is just around the corner.

Or does it?

52% of delegates to the national convention will be awarded Tuesday on the Democratic side, a percentage which won’t necessarily translate into a nominee being selected. That is because the Democrats employ a proportional delegate selection plan based on the percentage of votes each candidate receives in a given primary or caucus. For example, with 1,681 Delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, Senator Clinton could receive 924 delegates to Senator Obama’s 756 delegates.

The Republican system is a little less complicated. 30% of Delegates to the GOP Convention will be awarded in winner-take-all primaries in states such as California, New York, Massachusetts, Arizona and Illinois. This means that the candidate who receives the highest percentage of the vote garners all of the state’s or congressional districts’ delegates. If any candidate is able to garner a significant amount of the states on Tuesday the path to the nomination will be much clearer.

With this virtually being a national election, campaigns will have to explore unprecedented voter outreach campaigns so that they can stretch ad dollars further to win as many votes as possible to get a leg up. Therefore, ad buys for Super Tuesday will rival those of Super Sunday. But the importance each campaign pays to a state may not be based on the amount of dollars spent there. Rather, it may depend on the amount of time the candidate, their families and key surrogates spend in that state. During the show down in Nevada, for example, Senators Clinton and Obama spent enough time in next door California, a state that boasts 440 delegates - almost 22% of the delegates needed for nomination - that NBC’s Brian Williams accidentally welcomed everyone to Los Angeles, for a debate in Nevada. Perhaps we need more maps.

On both sides, candidates will hope for free media blitzes in the states with the largest amount of delegates. Delegate-rich New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Illinois will all send voters to the polls on February 5th; so don't be surprised if airports from Newark to Sacramento see backlogs as campaign planes rush in and out in the run-up to Super Tuesday.

There will be no rest for the weary, however. Candidates then face the Washington Caucuses, the Kansas Republican Caucus, the Nebraska Democratic Caucus, and the Louisiana Primary on Saturday. On Sunday, the race returns to New England with the Maine Democratic primaries. This may be the first time in many months that candidates pass through New Hampshire without a stop!

Although many polls have the Democratic Primary neck-in-neck, my unscientific polling (I quizzed two friends who early voted already in Tennessee) suggests that it is a dead heat. James and Emily Bowden of Nashville, Tennessee split their vote. However my polling does have a significant margin of error, much like some of the other less scientific groundhogs.

*Punxutawney Phil can’t vote (here’s hoping he can get the twenty-eighth amendment passed; the marmot voting rights act) but he has a better track record of predicting weather than most pundits do of predicting outcomes of elections, Punxsutawney Phil has correctly predicted every spring since, well forever.