Magic Number

After the DNC rules committee decided that Florida and Michigan's delegates will be seated and count as half a vote each, the number needed to clinch the nomination has gone up to 2,117 and in turn each candidate's magic number has changed.

Based on the assumption that the remaining three states will break 55-45 for Senator Clinton, Senator Obama now needs 26 or 5% of the undeclared superdelegates to win the nomination.

With the decision by the rules committee today, Senator Clinton is still mathematically viable, but then again, mathematically the Kansas City Royals still have a chance to win the World Series. Senator Clinton needs 194 or 95% of the remaining superdelegates in order to sew up the nomination.

Go Pens!

Daily Kos is keeping and up-to-date ticker of pledged delegates and superdelegates as the Democratic Primaries begin to wrap up this weekend with Sunday's Puerto Rican Primary, followed by contests in Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday, accounting for a combined 86 delegates.

With the news today that Meredith Wood Smith of Oregon and Pat Waak of Colorado, both Democratic Party Chairs and Superdelegates, have endorsed Senator Obama, the Kos chart suggests that Senator Obama's Magic Number is 46.

Although no polling is available for Puerto Rico, we can reasonably assert that Senator Obama will pick up no less than 45% of the vote in the final three elections of the primary season, which will net Senator Obama around 38 delegates. This cuts his magic number down to 8.

197 Superdelgates are still unpledged. If they play by Chairman Dean's rules and make their selection by June 3, we should see an average of 28 endorsements a day. Senator Obama needs to pick up 8 of these endorsements, or 4%.

Senator Obama may need more Superdelegates pending the results of this weekend's decision by the DNC Rules Committee. We will be tracking the magic number for Senator Obama and Senator Clinton every morning as more Superdelegates reveal themselves.