Economy

With rapidly rising energy costs changing the way Americans live and work and global warming threatening even greater harm to our future prosperity and well-being, it is clear that a fundamental change in America’s energy policy is needed. Bold new policies and leadership can turn these twin crises into historic opportunities.

In that spirit, NDN is pleased to announce that on Friday, August 1, Assistant U.S. Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin will deliver an address on the economic benefits for America in moving from carbon-based fuels to renewable energy sources. Senator Durbin’s remarks will be followed by a panel discussion on "Energy and the American Way of Life." Both events are hosted by the NDN Green Project.

During the panel discussion, energy leaders and experts will discuss how this transition can take place. NDN Green Project Director Michael Moynihan will also be discussing his new paper entitled, Solar Energy: The Case for Action.

Assistant Majority Leader Durbin will speak at 11:15 a.m. on Friday, August 1, in the Ballroom of the Phoenix Park Hotel, 520 N. Capitol St., NW, in Washington, DC. The panel will follow the senator’s remarks. Lunch will be served. Please click here to RSVP.

NDN’s Green Project is a program of the Globalization Initiative that seeks to develop a legislative, regulatory and advocacy framework to address climate change, enhance energy security, and accelerate the development of green technologies to promote economic growth. Through this initiative, NDN serves as a bridge between key stakeholders such as the new clean technology community and public leaders as we build a post-carbon economy.

For more information on this event, please contact Courtney Markey at cmarkey@ndn.org or 202-384-1214.  We look forward to seeing you Friday, August 1, at 11:15 a.m.

A new ad out today from the McCain campaign seeks to blame Barack Obama for rising gas prices. Take a look at "Pump," and the interesting imagery:

The overall narrative that the McCain camp is trying to pin on Obama through the first half of this ad and its dark imagery is evident: a figure we don’t know much about who is a pop sensation built only on false hopes and making our lives worse. The image of Obama floating in front of spinning gas prices while crowds chant his name is especially pointed.

The ad continues to be over the top by being almost entirely intellectually dishonest. Note the wording of the blame that McCain puts on Obama: "Some in Washington are still saying no to drilling in America." The ad uses the word "still" because McCain changed his view on drilling about a month ago, and, even if he had his policy, gas prices would not be any lower.

McCain also tries to have it both ways, as his campaign generally tries to point out Obama’s inexperience, but then goes back and holds Obama responsible for three decades of American energy policy, while giving himself a free pass. In fact, courtesy of Politico's Ben Smith, a recent quote from a McCain speech, that works more as a self-indictment than anything else:

"Let me give you a little bit of straight talk on energy. Our dangerous dependence on foreign oil has been thirty years in the making, and was caused by the failure of politicians in Washington to think long term about the future of the country."

McCain looked to be gaining momentum on energy security and offshore drilling, at least as being able to point to a specific plan on energy prices (even an ineffective one). This ad has a desperate feel, and is so easily debunked and ironic, that it seems like McCain has decided to just run against Hope.

NDN will host the next in its series of Latin American Policy Initiative forums tomorrow, Tuesday, July 22, at 9:30 a.m. The guest for tomorrow's forum is the Honorable Carolina Barco, Colombian Ambassador to the United States, who will talk about issues of importance to Colombia. A 45-minute panel will be followed by a 30-minute Q&A session.

Tomorrow's policy forum follows this weekend's mass protests against kidnappings by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the recent dramatic rescue of several of those hostages, and will serve as an opportunity to speak to the Ambassador prior to President Bush's remarks in honor of Colombian Independence Day, scheduled for tomorrow afternoon at the White House.

LAPI Forum with Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco
Tuesday, July 22
9:30 a.m.-11 a.m.
Reserve Officers
Association Building
5th Floor
One Constitution Ave., NE
Washington,DC

New York City -- Yesterday's inspiring speech by Vice President Gore, once more, reminded us of how different the world would have been under a Gore Presidency compared with the last eight years.  Gore challenged the United States in 10 years--recalling President Kenenedy's call to send a man to the moon in a single decade--to convert itself entirely to renewable fuels (with nuclear plants permitted to continue to operate). 

How realistic is that goal?  In fact it is far more realistic than his critics allow.  Unlike the moonshot, however, the barriers are not technological but largely political.

Wind energy is already competitive in many part of the country with natural gas-based power--the fastest growing current source.  For this reason, Texan T. Boone Pickens has been investing in wind.  And there is every reason to expect, as wind power scales, that it will approach parity with coal over the next decade.  Coal is the cheapest source of power, but the dirtiest and coal's price has doubled this year alone.  In contrast, wind's cost profile is declining.  The main barriers to wind currently are issues of grid hookup related to its variability and surprisingly, public resistance to windmills in people's backyard.  In Germany thanks, in part to liberal incentives, but also to public acceptance of seeing windmills, wind currently accounts for 20% of power generation.  It can easily surpass that figure in the United States.  A carbon regime in the form of a cap and trade system or tax would accelerate cost convergence with coal.

Solar energy, the other major renewable, is currently far more expensive than ordinary grid power, but its price is declining rapidly--by 20-30% per year.  At that rate, it will achieve grid parity in about 8 years if fossil fuel prices stay constant.  But since fossil prices are increasing, solar may achieve grid parity far earlier. 

Moreover, solar is strongest during hours of peak demand when utlities must pay high rates to bring on extra increments of power.  Thus, solar has already achieved parity with peak retail prices--say at 2 p.m. on an August day in the midst of a heat wave--in some parts of the country.  Since utilities, like the bus system, must be built for rush hour, if solar can meet beat peak prices, in theory, it could absorb a very high level of all increases in demand.

However, the truth is that cost parity when it arrives--and it will arrive--will not be enough to achieve Gore's vision.  That's because energy incumbents and a host of disincentives for utilities to make the switch to renewables, stand in the way. 

Utilities, under the most common method of regulated pricing, make more money selling power from old, fully depreciated plants they own than from new facilities owned by someone else--like you or me on our rooftops or T. Boone Pickens.  Thus, absent policy changes, they may actually slow or block the adoption of rewables.

What is needed to break down this incumbent resistance?

First, regulators must decouple utility profits from the levels of electricity they sell as California and some states have already done.  Otherwise, the only rational strategy for utilities is to try to monopolize sales themselves--and block the development of renewables.

Second, regulators must encourage net metering--the ability of consumers to sell excess power back to the grid.

Third--and this is crticial--regulators must go beyond net metering and allow what I call net billing to allow consumers to buy power directly from power producers after paying an appropriate transporation and distribution cost. 

Fourth, the grid must be modernized and artifical barriers removed to grid hookup. 

Finally, the existing tax credits for renewable energy, the Investment Tax Credit geared to solar and the Production Tax credit that largely benefits wind must be set for the next eight years--to drive the production scale critical to reducing costs.  These tax credits are, by the way, only a fraction of those afforded to conventional fossil fuels. 

Indeed the incentives granted to fossil fuels were on display yesterday in the House where Republicans blocked a move by Democrats to require oil companies to actually explore the 68 million acres of federal land currently at their disposal or else have to relinquish the lease to someone else.  In addition to making federal lands available to oil and coal companies, the federal government also provides huges tax incentives, support for the construction of infrastructure and other measures that some tally at over $2 trillion per year.

If Congress and regulators can get the policy right to put renewables on an even footing with incumbent energy sources, the equivalent of a moon shot can be achieved.  But it will take real leadership to break through the incumbent's entirely natural resistance. 

Later this month, the NDN Green project will be releasing a paper on solar energy and we also will be holding an event on the impact of high fuel prices on the American economy and the promise of clean technologies to create a new post carbon economy that we hope will encourage more discussion of these issues.

From his bumbling press conference yesterday came this revealing statement from President Bush (as reported by the New York Times):

"The bottom line is this: We're going through a tough time," Mr. Bush said. "But our economy's continued growing, consumers are spending, businesses are investing, exports continue increasing and American productivity remains strong."

What's missing from this description of the economy today? The prosperity of the American people themselves.

What Bush could not say was that wages are improving, incomes are up, the struggle of average people is getting better. And of course for voters, this is all that really matters.

The national Republican Party's ideological blindness to the worsening conditions of average people these last few years is the primary cause of its collapse as a national Party, and is the issue driving this election. Performances like the one from the President yesterday, and the utter cluelessness of his statements, just reinforce American's fears that there is nobody in DC interested or capable of looking out for them.

Nero. Hoover. Chauncey Gardner. Mr. Magoo. Marie-Antoinette. Howdy-Doody. Take your pick. Leader? President? American patriot? No f-ing way. The President of the United States has become an out-of-touch joke, and in a Parlimentary system would have been tossed from office a long time ago. In these trying times, his profound weakness is going to be felt deeply by the American people, and make finding a path forward that much more difficult.

Or perhaps he will just be known in history simply as Bush, with that name and his visage taking its place next to these other clueless characters, fictional and historic.

Update: Of course that the economy is driving the disatisfaction of the voters is not new. We released this analysis right after the last elections which makes the case that it was the economy much more than the Iraq War that drove the GOP from office in 2006. 

Oh, and - breaking news - the president does not, I repeat, does not, have a magic wand. He can't just say, "low gas." Well, I'll be darned. That really throws a wrench in things here. What will we do now.

The truth of the matter here is that no blog can truly capture the essence of Bush's speech on the economy today. You just have to watch yourself and hope that change is truly, finally just around the corner in 2009.

Lots of activity and energy coming from NDN over the next few weeks. Today in San Diego, NDN Vice President for Hispanic Programs, Andres Ramirez, will be presenting NDN's lastest thinking on the Latino vote in the 2008 elections on a panel at the National Council of La Raza Conference.

Last week, NDN was proud to join up with other leading thinkers and and strategists to launch Immigration '08, a new initiative and Web site that will be tracking how the immigration issue plays in the elections this year. If you haven't seen it, make sure you check out our major new report on the growing importance of the Hispanic vote, Hispanics Rising II. Andres will be the featured guest on our weekly Members' Conference call this Friday, July 18, at 2:15 p.m. ET. To RSVP, click here. Also catch Simon in an excellent overview by NPR's insightful reporter Jennifer Ludden on the impact Latinos will have on the 2008 elections. Click here to listen.

In DC this week, we have two compelling events:

A discussion tomorrow, Wednesday, July 16, with Dr. Rob Shapiro about the new and important paper he co-authored. The paper is an important addition to a growing body of thought on creative ways to confront the challenge of climate change and details a strategy for shifting to a carbon-based tax through using 90 percent of the revenue to cut the payroll tax, thereby tackling climate change without placing undue burden on average Americans or the economy as a whole. To learn more or RSVP, click here.

And we follow with a very exciting event on Thursday, July 17 -- a conversation with Declan Ganley, the dynamic leader of the recent Irish "no" vote campaign, and head of the Libertas Institute, about the future of Europe. To learn more or RSVP, click here.

NDN travels to Texas this weekend as a major sponsor of Netroots Nation, an event that has become an important meeting of the new 21st century progressive movement. We will present two panels on Saturday, July 19. To learn more about our panels and what we'll be talking about, please click here.

Next week is just as busy. For our friends in New York, come have breakfast with Simon and NDN Green Project Director, Michael Moynihan, on Monday, July 21, to talk politics, presidential campaigns, energy and climate issues and the dramatic developments in our national economy. To RSVP, click here.

On Tuesday, July 22, we hold another in our series of events about the future of U.S.-Latin American relations, this one with Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco. With all the controversy and interest in Colombia this year, this is certain to be an interesting event. Click here to read NDN's statement on President Bush's submission of the recent Colombia Free Trade Agreement. This event is the latest in our Latin American Policy Initiative (LAPI) series. Click here to learn more or RSVP.

Comments, thoughts, suggestions - send ‘em my way at mmerz@ndn.org.

San Diego, CA - US Senator John McCain delivered an impressive performance today to the conference attendees at NCLR.  I must admit that he performed much better than I was expecting.  Senator McCain focused on his support for improving relations with Latin America (something that NDN had been promoting through our Latin American Policy Initiative), the importance for assisting small businesses to help the economy, he spoke of the contributions that many Hispanics provide to our Armed Forces and yes he spoke of immigration.  Although he did not provide the rock star atmosphere that was evident during Senator Obama's speech, he kept the audience engaged and informed.  It is no secret that I disagree with many of Senator McCain's positions, and that I have criticized him for betraying Hispanics when he walked away from his own bill to pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, but you have to give credit where credit is due.  Senator McCain acknowledged that he was not in the most friendly room given recent polls that show Hispanics favoring Senator Obama by 2 to 1, and yet he still allowed the audience to pepper him with questions that were clearly difficult for him to address.  In the most important exchange, at least in my opinion, Senator McCain was asked to clarify if his modified position on immigration that emphasizes border enforcement would be submitted in ONE bill or separate bills.  Senator McCain stated that his proposal would be ONE bill that includes a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented immigrants in this country, but would provide for securing the border first.  This is an important clarification to make because he has not made this statement before.  NDN has advocated over the past few years that any Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill must include all aspects in one bill as opposed to multiple bills that deal with the various issues of immigration reform.  This statement is significant, and it is important for immigration activists to confirm that this is in fact his position, and hold him to this position. 

Tomorrow, I will be speaking on a panel titled - Latino Voters: Making their mark on the 2008 Election.  For more info on the panel click here.  Exciting times my friends, Iand  will report back tomorrow. 

San Diego, CA - "The cosmic race," that is how Barack Obama referred to the Hispanic audience to whom he emphatically said, "Make no mistake about it: the Latino community holds this election in your hands," at NCLR's annual conference.  Yes, the Hispanic vote is a varied one, and a crucial one, and the comments I hear from the audience denote that - for the first time - they know it.  Folks here are excited and increasingly comfortable with having demands and expectations of candidates on the issues they care about because they know that their vote is more central to American politics than ever before.  As Andres noted in his interview with Maria Peña of EFE yesterday, whoever wins over Hispanics is assured to win the White House.

The use of the cosmic race denotes that Sen. Obama understands that the Hispanic community is one with a rich tapestry of cultures, colors, and beliefs.  Immigration is still by far the issue at the forefront on the minds of the attendees at this conference, mostly because of the impact of the ongoing immigration raids in the Hispanic community.  Yesterday I also heard many praise Sen. Obama for addressing a wider array of issues in more detail, in addition to immigration.  The challenge is on - it has been expected that given his current unpopular stance among Hispanics on immigration, Sen. McCain would focus rather on discussing economic and other issues of importance to this community during his address to NCLR.  Well, Sen. Obama seized the opportunity yesterday to beat him to the punch and introduce a proposed tax credit for small businesses providing health insurance to their employees, to discuss his plans for the economy, education, health care, veterans, and received thunderous applause as he attacked the impact of immigration raids on families, and he once again called out John McCain for having "abandoned his courageous stance" on immigration. 

It will be a hard act for Sen. McCain to follow, no doubt.  Sen. McCain has also recognized the differences within the Hispanic vote, and is working to appeal to more conservative Hispanics.  Both candidates are still refining their approach - as reported by the Associated Press yesterday, "like awkward suitors," both candidates have at times fumbled their approach to Hispanics by addressing members of the community too directly and rationally, with a "take me to your leaders" kind of tactic.  But Hispanics like to develop closer, more personal relationships.  Sen. Obama opened his speech by individually naming and recognizing several grassroots and immigrant rights activist in the audience, like Enrique Morones of Border Angels, and throughout his speech appealed to the heart and "character of this community," making the audience feel that he appreciates their values, and that those values are American values.  Sen. McCain is recognized and respected by the community, but to win these voters over he will have to:  1) take advantage of this golden opportunity to show courage on immigration and move away from his party on this, 2) show that he does not look at Hispanics as votes, or even worse, as a voting block to be convinced, he must show that our struggles are his struggles, that he also knows the community's "big heart" and that he genuinely cares about fighting alongside and as part of the Hispanic community.  "Familia" is a big foundation of the "raza cosmica", and he has to make this community feel his desire to be part of the family first.