poll

The most recent Gallup Poll daily election tracking of the Democratic race shows Clinton gaining a small lead recently (2%). However, the race remains very tight, as is illustrated by the graph below of recent tracking results over the past 4 weeks:

Other findings have both Democrats now running about even with McCain, although McCain (46%) has opened a slight lead over Obama (44%) in the latest results.  For more from the poll, visit gallup.com.  

It is interesting that at no point during this track did Clinton reach or exceed 49% (unlike Obama, who hit 50% twice in the track) and thus it remains to be seen if Obama can regain his lead and build upon it after his powerful speech today on race, or whether Clinton can even reach 50%.

On the eve of Super Tuesday, or what approximates a national primary, I found that the following graphs, compiled by Pollster.com, easily and visually illustrate which candidate has the advantage in which state and who has momentum.  First the Democrats and then the Republicans:

Democrats: State by State...

Democrats: Momentum...

Republicans: State by State

Republicans: Momentum?...

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, released yesterday, revealed that: "Expectations for a better economy fell this week to a 16-year low, a level last reached during the recession of 1990-91.  Consumer confidence in current economic conditions dropped as well, matching its 2007 low, not previously seen since May 2003."

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press released more results in their ongoing survey of the internet, Millennials and the 2008 election on Friday: Internet's Broader Role in Campaign 2008.  Some of the interesting findings from this poll include the fact that TV/Newspapers continue to lose ground as a source of political news among Millenials: 

And when asked what sites online they use for information on the campaigns:

"three websites dominate the internet news landscape: MSNBC, CNN and Yahoo News. Each is cited by roughly a quarter of those who get campaign news online at least sometimes, and collectively, 54% cite at least one of these three websites. [...and...] younger online election news consumers also turn to the larger news sites in greater numbers as well. MSNBC, CNN and Yahoo News are cited as sources far more often by 18-29 year olds than by those who are older. In fact, 61% of younger people getting campaign news online list at least one of these three sites among their sources, compared with 46% of those age 30 and older."

The poll also examined the fast-rising influence of Social Networking sites and found that:

"Fully two-thirds of Americans age 18-29 say they use social networking sites, and more than a quarter in this age group (27%) say that they have gotten information about candidates and the campaign from them – including 37% among those ages 18-24. Nearly one-in-ten of people under age 30 (8%) say that they have signed up as a "friend" of one of the candidates on a site. And the numbers are even higher for each of these activities among young registered voters."

For our report on Millenials check out our New Politics Institute report: The Progresive Politics of the Millennial Generation.

For our report on Social Networking check out our New Politics Institute report: Social Networking Tools in Politics. 

USA Today/Gallup released a poll today of Likely Voters in NH taken from Friday thru Sunday which shows Obama leading his next closest rival, Clinton, by 13% while McCain leads Romney by 4% (which is inside the poll's margin of error at +/-4%).  This poll is particularly interesting because it uses a larger than usual sample of 778 likely Democratic voters.  For the full poll and article by USA Today Washington bureau chief, Susan Page, as well as a nifty poll tracker, click here.

The recent ABC News / Facebook poll on The Election and The Internet finds that for the first time the net is poised to overtake newspapers as the second most used source of campaign news and information for Americans with television remaining primary but continuing to slip.

However, the most interesting finding is that internet users are more engaged, involved and report higher levels of issue understanding and commitment to volunteering and voting versus all others.

And, of course, the online population skews young with 71% under the age of 50. The survey echoes a lot of what we've been saying, especially in our report The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation. The poll further states:

"It follows that online political information users hold some views associated with younger age groups – more likely to support gay civil unions, legal abortion and a legalstatus program for illegal immigrants. Online political information users also are more apt than other Americans to define themselves as liberals, 27 percent vs. 17 percent, and somewhat less apt to be conservatives, 31 percent vs. 38 percent. Conservatism peaks, at 46 percent, among people who don't use the Internet at all."