Las Vegas, NV - Throughout the Primary elections, several political pundits and news media reported on what they considered was a problem for US Senator Barack Obama. The common perception was that since US Senator Hillary Clinton was outperforming Senator Obama among Hispanic voters by more than 2:1, then this must be a problem for Senator Obama. In addition, they generated much commentary around the assumption that there must be racial tensions among Hispanic and African American voters because Senator Obama was not performing as well as Senator Clinton among this crucial voting group.
That was the Primary though, and now we have moved on to the General election. Every major poll that been released shows Senator Obama leading US Senator John McCain by at least a 2:1 ratio including the most recent NY Times/CBS poll that shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 62% to 23%. The question is, when we will see the headline, "Senator McCain has a Latino Problem." In addition, when will we see the news media begin reporting the on the willingness of Hispanic voters to support and African American candidate. If the standard for making the case in the Primary was a 2:1 lead, then shouldn't that same standard be considered now. It is also a real problem for me to know that news media was willing to sensationalize an alleged conflict between Hispanic and African American voters, but lack the appetite to report on the harmony that is now apparent. In fact most reporting on race relations now centers on a potential divide between African American and White voters. The discussion on race relations seems to ignore Hispanics.
I don't know when the news media will begin to accept this reality, but I know that at least Senator McCain understands the gravity of the situation. Senator McCain has been engaging in a full court press to woo Latino voters. He has hired one of the best Hispanic advertising gurus in the business, Lionel Sosa, who guided President Bush to record levels of support among Hispanic voters for a Republican presidential candidate, he is making the rounds at every major conference of the leading national Hispanic organizations, he has launched an aggressive media campaign targeted at Hispanic voters, and is pretty much willing to do whatever it takes to reach out to Hispanic voters. For a Senator who was supposed to have an easy task at courting Hispanic voters, these actions look more like signs of desperation than confidence. At this point, Senator McCain is polling anywhere from 17%-21% lower than President Bush's 2004 levels depending on which polls you reference.
During the 2008 NCLR Annual Conference these past four days, several operatives of Senator McCain's campaign have acknowledged that they are aware of Senator McCain's Latino problem. They state that Senator McCain is suffering from a damaged Republican brand among Hispanic voters due to the GOP's anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric over the last couple of years. I think that they are correct that this is a major reason why Senator McCain has a Latino problem, but one of the other important reasons Senator McCain is struggling among Hispanic voters is "trust." Senator McCain tried to address this issue during the NCLR conference by stating that he hopes his past actions have earned the "trust" of Hispanic voters. However, the Senator McCain that we know today is not the same as the Senator McCain we knew of before, and Senator McCain we just don't know if we can trust you anymore. The NY Times/CBS Poll states that 59% of Hispanics think Senator McCain does not believe his own rhetoric. This above all else is why Senator McCain has a Latino problem.
UPDATE***
Shortly after posting this, I recieved polling information from Gallup on the issue of race relations between Hispanics and African Americans. I think that the information is very important so, I am posting there findings here.
The generally positive review of black-Hispanic relations in Gallup polling among members of the two leading U.S. minority groups contrasts with considerable media speculation about the impact of Hispanic animosity toward blacks in this year's primary elections.
Some of that commentary has speculated that the trend is getting worse as the Hispanic population grows and starts to outnumber blacks in some neighborhoods and entire cities. Others posit that older Hispanics are more likely than the younger generation to harbor biases and resentments against blacks.
In a January 2008 New York Times article titled, "In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role," the authors write, "Mr. Obama confronts a history of often uneasy and competitive relations between blacks and Hispanics, particularly as they have jockeyed for influence in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. 'Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,' Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. 'I don't think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There's always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There's still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I've talked to support Clinton.'"
While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.
