Polls

Earlier, Simon mentioned that he could look at the map on RCP all day, showing Obama/Biden 273 - McCain/Palin 265. However, polls released in 11 of the 12 swing states today show the race being within two points. U.S. Sen. John McCain holds a narrow margin in Ohio and is tied in two of the three Florida polls.

This week, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in New Mexico has taken a 7-point lead in McCain's backyard. However, polls in New Hampshire, which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004, show McCain up three points. New Hampshire, which has been a historically strong state for McCain, could put a dent into the Democratic domination of the northeast if this margin holds.

COLORADO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
COLORADO (Insider Advantage): Obama - 51%, McCain - 41%, Others - 2%.
FLORIDA (National Journal/FD): Obama - 44%, McCain - 44%.
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 51%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
FLORIDA (ARG): Obama - 46%, McCain - 46%, Others - 3%.
INDIANA (Indianapolis Star/Selzer): Obama - 47%, McCain - 44%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 1%.
INDIANA (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 47%, Obama - 43%, Others - 2%.
MICHIGAN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 44%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%.
MINNESOTA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 45%, McCain - 43%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (ARG): McCain - 50%, Obama - 45%.
NEVADA (ARG): McCain - 49%, Obama - 46%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
NEW MEXICO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 49%, McCain - 42%.
NEW MEXICO (ARG): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
OHIO (National Journal): McCain - 42%, Obama - 41%.
OHIO (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 43%, Obama - 42%, Others - 2%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 43%, McCain - 42%, Others - 1%
WISCONSIN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 42%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%

The six polls conducted by the University of Wisconsin in Big Ten states also asked respondents how bad they thought their team would beat the Michigan Wolverines this year as they adjust to Coach Rich Rodriguez's spread offense, after their loss to Notre Dame (Average answer: 72 points).

Sarah Palin has made a huge splash since being introduced to the national political scene, a splash like a polar bear doing a Triple Lindy into Glacier Bay. Several national polls released since her announcement have shown her true impact on the race.

According to Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking, Governor Palin has had a rough week in light of her interview on ABC and criticism of her and U.S. Sen. John McCain's negative attacks on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  Her favorability fell 5 points over the course of last week, Her unfaves increased by 8.  

Today, Rassmussen released a poll testing a hypothetical presidential match up between Palin and U.S. Sen. Joe Biden (perhaps next they can poll a reunion of David Lee Roth and Van Halen). Palin leads Biden 47% to 44%, with both candidates having about 50% favorable ratings, Palin, however, garners 35% very favorable ratings to Biden's 23%.  In the very unfavorable category, Governor Palin also leads with 28% of respondents to Senator Biden's 20%, (but this is like a golf score, lowest wins). Very interestingly, Biden outpaces Palin in a key constituent group, women, 55% to 44% according to the Rassmussen survey.

An EMILY's list poll also found that Governor Palin struggled among those sharing a common second x chromosome as the Alaska Governor. It is hard to believe that a pro-life, anti-moose Pentecostal would only be appealing to 41% of women.  Joe Biden, on the other hand, is supported by 64% of women. Additionally, the EMILY's list poll finds that only 9% of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters are more likely to support John McCain because of Palin's selection. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama extended his lead among Clinton Supporters by 10 points after Palin's inclusion and opened up a 54-point lead on McCain. 59% of women felt that Palin's selection was politically motivated, 20% of women thought Governor Palin was picked because of her qualifications, the same percent that have excessive mercury in their body.

The race has leveled, the bounces are over. Now it is up to the candidates to make their case and the voters to decide.

A new group of polls released in the last 48 hours give us a better picture of where the presidential campaign might go if the election were held today. As Simon suggests, the race has steadied.

ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 64%, Obama - 33%.
MICHIGAN (CNN/Time): Obama - 45%, McCain - 42%, Nader - 6%, Barr - 2%, McKinney - 1%.
MICHIGAN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (CNN/Time): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 2%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%, Nader - 4%, Barr - 2%.
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Barr - 4%.
NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 55%, Obama - 41%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Others - 3%.
VIRGINIA (CNN/Time): McCain - 49%, Obama - 43%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 1%.
WEST VIRGINIA (WSAV-TV/MBE): McCain - 44%, Obama - 39%.
WISCONSIN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 46%, McCain - 43%, Others - 3%.
MONTANA (Rasmussen): McCain - 53%, Obama - 42%.
NEW JERSEY (Farleigh Dickinson Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 41%, Others - 4%.
OKLAHOMA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 65%, Obama - 32%, Others - 1%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

Factoring in these polling numbers, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama grows his lead to 266-238 over U.S. Sen. John McCain, leaving him four electoral votes short of assuming the presidency, if the election were held today. Based on these data, Oregon and Florida will determine the next president. Oregon is the only swing state without recent polling, but it seems exceedingly likely to go for Obama. Florida, however, is a dead heat. To win the White House, McCain would need to win both Oregon and Florida; Obama need only win one of the two.

In most swing states, the race is within one or two points, leaving it easily inside the margin of error. Simply put: these states could go either way. If McCain were  to flip Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states where he is trailing by two or less points, he takes a 276-228 electoral majority.

If Obama were to flip New Mexico and Indiana, the two states he is trailing by two or less points, his electoral total would run to 282, 12 more than the necessary 270.

McCain's brilliant pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is already paying dividends: he has opened up a 31-point lead in delegate-rich (three) Alaska, 64-33 (100% sample).

For years, NDN has been a leader on Hispanic issues, including comprehensive immigration reform and analysis of Latino demographic and voting trends. In the last few months, NDN has set out to make the argument that Hispanic and immigrant voters have become a critical voting bloc in the United States and will play a pivotal role this fall and in all future elections. Our arguments went public in a big way in late May as we released Hispanics Rising II, an in-depth, updated look at Hispanic demographic and voting trends and the critical role that the Hispanic community is playing in U.S. politics. Below are some of the articles relevant to our argument as well as Andres's presentation at NCLR's Conference in San Diego last week:

Latino turnout could hold key to White House - San Francisco Chronicle, by Tyche Hendricks, May 21, 2008

Obama closes in on Democratic nomination - Xinhua General News Service, by Yang Qingchuan, May 21, 2008.

Obama looks west in electoral map play - Politico, by Carrie Budoff Brown, May 27, 2008

Favorece voto latino a demócratas por tema de inmigración en EU - El Financiero, May 28, 2008

Obama woos key states with accent on Spanish - Financial Times, By Andrew Ward in Reno, Nevada, and Edward Luce in Washington, May 29, 2008

Group predicts record Hispanic turnout in next presidential election - Mashall News Messenger, by Bob Deans, May 29, 2008

Democratic Group Says Hispanic Voters Run to Democratic Party - Kansas City Infozine, by Christian A. Cheairs, May 29, 2008

Election 2008: Latino vote could be pivotal in Western states - San Jose Mercury News, By Frank Davies, May 29, 2008

El voto latino aumenta y se vuelve más demócrata - La Opinion, Pilar Marrero, May 29, 2008

Obama va por el voto hispano - CNN Espanol, May 29, 2008

Obama's E Pluribus Challenge - Rolling Stone, June 04, 2008

Obama leads in battle for Latino vote - Los Angeles Times, by Reed Johnson, June 06, 2008

Obama en busca del voto latino - La Opinion, by Pilar Marrero, June 06, 2008

Hispanics will be Obama's big challenge - Miami Herald, by Andres Oppenheimer, June 08, 2008

Spanish-language media key to victory with Latinos - Politico, by Gebe Martinez, June 10, 2008

El voto latino será crucial en 2008 - Univision, June 13, 2008

Shift on immigration could cost McCain - St. Petersburg Times, by Alex Leary and Wes Allison, June 21, 2008

The swing states of 2008 - Salon.com, by Thomas F. Schaller, June 24, 2008

Obama, McCain make strong bid for Latino votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, June 26, 2008

McCain, Obama battle for Hispanic votes - The Hill, by Roxana Tiron, June 28, 2008

Swinging for Latinos - New Mexico Independent, by Marjorie Childress, July 1, 2008

Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states - Associated Press, by Stephen Ohlemacher, July 2, 2008

McCain revs efforts to woo Hispanic voters - The Arizona Republic, by Dan Nowicki, July 10, 2008

POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election - North County Times, CA, by Edward Sifuentes, Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama prepara un "llamado a las trincheras" durante un foro hispano - EFE News Service, Andres's interview with Maria Pena, July 13, 2008.

NPR: 'Bush Hispanics' Say Goodbye To GOP, by Jennifer Ludden, July 13, 2008

McCain woos Latinos, touts immigration votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, July 15, 2008

Las Vegas, NV - Throughout the Primary elections, several political pundits and news media reported on what they considered was a problem for US Senator Barack Obama. The common perception was that since US Senator Hillary Clinton was outperforming Senator Obama among Hispanic voters by more than 2:1, then this must be a problem for Senator Obama. In addition, they generated much commentary around the assumption that there must be racial tensions among Hispanic and African American voters because Senator Obama was not performing as well as Senator Clinton among this crucial voting group.

That was the Primary though, and now we have moved on to the General election. Every major poll that been released shows Senator Obama leading US Senator John McCain by at least a 2:1 ratio including the most recent NY Times/CBS poll that shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 62% to 23%. The question is, when we will see the headline, "Senator McCain has a Latino Problem." In addition, when will we see the news media begin reporting the on the willingness of Hispanic voters to support and African American candidate.  If the standard for making the case in the Primary was a 2:1 lead, then shouldn't that same standard be considered now.  It is also a real problem for me to know that news media was willing to sensationalize an alleged conflict between Hispanic and African American voters, but lack the appetite to report on the harmony that is now apparent. In fact most reporting on race relations now centers on a potential divide between African American and White voters.  The discussion on race relations seems to ignore Hispanics.

I don't know when the news media will begin to accept this reality, but I know that at least Senator McCain understands the gravity of the situation. Senator McCain has been engaging in a full court press to woo Latino voters. He has hired one of the best Hispanic advertising gurus in the business, Lionel Sosa, who guided President Bush to record levels of support among Hispanic voters for a Republican presidential candidate, he is making the rounds at every major conference of the leading national Hispanic organizations, he has launched an aggressive media campaign targeted at Hispanic voters, and is pretty much willing to do whatever it takes to reach out to Hispanic voters. For a Senator who was supposed to have an easy task at courting Hispanic voters, these actions look more like signs of desperation than confidence. At this point, Senator McCain is polling anywhere from 17%-21% lower than President Bush's 2004 levels depending on which polls you reference.

During the 2008 NCLR Annual Conference these past four days, several operatives of Senator McCain's campaign have acknowledged that they are aware of Senator McCain's Latino problem. They state that Senator McCain is suffering from a damaged Republican brand among Hispanic voters due to the GOP's anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric over the last couple of years. I think that they are correct that this is a major reason why Senator McCain has a Latino problem, but one of the other important reasons Senator McCain is struggling among Hispanic voters is "trust." Senator McCain tried to address this issue during the NCLR conference by stating that he hopes his past actions have earned the "trust" of Hispanic voters. However, the Senator McCain that we know today is not the same as the Senator McCain we knew of before, and Senator McCain we just don't know if we can trust you anymore. The NY Times/CBS Poll states that 59% of Hispanics think Senator McCain does not believe his own rhetoric.   This above all else is why Senator McCain has a Latino problem.

UPDATE***

Shortly after posting this, I recieved polling information from Gallup on the issue of race relations between Hispanics and African Americans.  I think that the information is very important so, I am posting there findings here.

The generally positive review of black-Hispanic relations in Gallup polling among members of the two leading U.S. minority groups contrasts with considerable media speculation about the impact of Hispanic animosity toward blacks in this year's primary elections.

Some of that commentary has speculated that the trend is getting worse as the Hispanic population grows and starts to outnumber blacks in some neighborhoods and entire cities. Others posit that older Hispanics are more likely than the younger generation to harbor biases and resentments against blacks.

In a January 2008 New York Times article titled, "In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role," the authors write, "Mr. Obama confronts a history of often uneasy and competitive relations between blacks and Hispanics, particularly as they have jockeyed for influence in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. 'Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,' Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. 'I don't think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There's always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There's still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I've talked to support Clinton.'"

While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.