Bush / GOP

I'm no economist, but I can read. The front page of my morning paper has huge, screaming headlines about global stocks sinking, the Dow closing below the 10,000 level for the first time in four years, Germany drafting a plan to shield its banking sector and no planned raises for local teachers because of a now-expected budget shortball, among others. The front page looks downright apocalyptic.

Most of this news seems far away -- it's on Wall Street, in Berlin, in Tokyo. But it's not. It's affecting those teachers in Maryland. It's affecting the presidential race in states like Michicgan (U.S. Sen. john McCain pulled his campaign out last week) and Ohio, where a new poll shows folks' economic anxiety on the rise along with the poll numbers of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  

What can we do?

For the last several weeks, NDN has argued that Congress and the President must make a serious effort to slow down the continuing deterioration of the housing market that ultimately has driven the problems in financial institutions. The bottom line? Keep people in their homes. 

So long as housing values continue to fall and foreclosures continue to climb, housing-based securities and derivatives will continue to default, further weakening financial institutions and the businesses and households that depend on them for credit.

In an insightful new Associated Press report (well worth reading) on just what caused the financial collapse, whom it's affecting and what might be done to fix it, AP's Tom Raum talked to NDN Globalization Initiative Chair Dr. Robert Shapiro:

Rob Shapiro, who was an economic adviser to President Clinton, said the crisis in Europe will turn out to be at least as severe as it is in the United States. "Between Europe and the United States, we'll take everybody else with us. And this is reflected in the markets," he said.

Shapiro, who heads the global initiative program at NDN, a Washington think tank, said one step that might help restore confidence would be for the government to set up a program to make direct loans to people facing foreclosures. Another might be for the government to turn all the problem mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into 30-year fixed rate ones.

As Jake pointed out last night, the presidential campaigns are engaged in plenty of political maneuvering on the eve of the candidates' second debate, but Obama made clear in a speech yesterday in North Carolina that he knows very well the importance of addressing the ongoing mortgage crisis.

So again, NDN urges Congress and the President to take steps to stablilize the deteriorating housing market. Only then will we be able to address the economic struggles of everyday people here at home and turmoil in the markets abroad.

The Washington Post reported Saturday that it's going to get ugly. 

Gov. Sarah Palin didn't waste any time that day. According to ABC News:

At a private fundraiser in Englewood, Colo., this morning, and later at a rally in Carson, Calif., this afternoon, Palin for the first time raised Obama’s connection to Ayers, one of the founding members of the Weather Underground, a '60s radical group that took credit for bombing attacks around the country, including explosions set off at the Pentagon and U.S. Capitol.

"Our opponent, though, is someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect, imperfect enough that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country," Palin told supporters at a $1,000-a-plate fundraiser in Englewood. "Americans need to know this."

Palin cited a front-page article in today’s New York Times that explored the ties between Obama and Ayers. Obama had served on a charity board with Ayers in Chicago during the mid-90s, and Ayers was present at an organizing meeting in 1995 to kick off Obama's first election campaign for the Illinois State Senate.

More incoming fire today. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's team is pushing back against U.S. Sen. John McCain's "guilt by association" campaign.

According to a 6:30 a.m. ET report by Politico's Mike Allen:

Pushing back against what it calls McCain's “guilt-by-association” tactics, the Obama campaign overnight began e-mailing millions of supporters a link to a website, KeatingEconomics.com, which will have a 13-minute documentary on the scandal beginning at noon Eastern time on Monday. The e-mails urge recipients to pass the link on to friends.

The Obama campaign, including its surrogates appearing on radio and television, will argue that the deregulatory fervor that caused massive, cascading savings-and-loan collapses in the late ‘80s was pursued by McCain throughout his career, and helped cause the current credit crisis.

The 13-minute Web video documentary is now live:

Update at 3:41 p.m. ET: Politico's Ben Smith reports that Obama's Keating campaign may be paying off:  

Obama apparently had today's Charles Keating attack in the can, ready to deploy against an attempt to revive Bill Ayers, and it seems to be working.

A glance at Google Trends finds "keating economics" the second-most-popular search term right now. Numbers 8, 11, 12, and 21 are terms like "keating five" and "charles keating."

Bill Ayers shows up at 36, just after "mccain keating."

The first term is Neal Kashkari, newly tapped to head the bailout. Voter registration terms also rank high.

Two major articles in today's Washington Post and New York Times focus in-depth on how the nation's worsening economy is presenting new opportunities -- and new challenges -- for the campaigns of U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain.

It looks like things were going McCain's way after the GOP convention -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had electrified the base, Obama was losing ground and the Arizona senator took a slim lead.

Then the nation's finanical markets crashed, Palin-mania has subsided as many Americans didn't like what they've seen post-St. Paul and Democrats traditionally do better with pocketbook issues.

Now McCain has pulled out of Michigan and Obama is competitive in traditionally red states like Florida where foreclosures are epidemic; nationally, the economic news just keeps getting worse.

Amidst all of this, yesterday, I picked up a book, "Deer Hunting with Jesus" by Joe Bageant. It is in turn fascinating, frightening and depressing. The book addresses a question that has always bothered me: why do people who are so clearly hurt by the GOP's economic policies keep voting for them again and again and again? Another article in today's Washington Post highlights the economic struggles of a suburban Michigan enclave and focues on why, while some people there may vote for Obama, others struggling to make ends meet are still planning to vote for McCain, despite the fact that his economic proposals do nothing to help them or their children.

Until progressives find a way to reach the voters written about in "Deer Hunting with Jesus" and the Washington Post article, we will continue to lose their votes because they will continue to vote, not on economic issues, but social "hot button issues" such as abortion, guns and sex education. And, sadly, as many of them admitted, they simply will not vote for an African-American candidate. All in all, it is not their failure, but our failure, to explain to them how we will not allow globalization to leave them behind; how we will invest in their education; how we will ready them as we accelerate toward a 21st century economy.

In 2007, NDN conducted a series of polls on the how Americans view the economy. They are well worth reading here and here. I know I will be looking at them for answers.

Lastly, in what can be at best called a sophmoric effort to change the subject, the McCain campaign said yesterday that:

We are looking for a very aggressive last 30 days," said Greg Strimple, one of McCain's top advisers. "We are looking forward to turning a page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans." "We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity. [Washington Post, 10/04/08]

In response, the Obama campaign has launched a new ad on the economy, highlighting what has happened over the last eight years during the Bush-Cheney reign.

Watch it here:

NDN has followed U.S. Sen. John McCain's track record on Immigration. The latest is John McCain's second ad on immigration in Spanish. Andres commented on the ad during an interview with NPR:

"It's disturbing to me, as a Hispanic, to have someone who feels he can blatantly deceive and think people won't pay attention," says Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs at NDN..."

Marisa wrote about the ad, and NDN has long advocated on: 1) the importance of the Hispanic vote (this demographic could very well swing several southern and western states in this election), and 2) the issue of immigration as a motivating factor in the way many Hispanics vote regardless of whether they are native or foreign born - this is thanks to the GOP strategy of turning the debate on immigration into a debate on whether Hispanics should be in this country.

Actually, McCain's message on immigration is not mixed at all - since 2006 he's been consistently against immigration reform. The first and second ads focus on misrepresenting Obama's position on immigration, but at no time do they state McCain's position - much less go as far as saying that McCain supports immigration reform. Instead, since the GOP now recognizes that Hispanics respond negatively to these anti-Hispanic attacks, they created the same kind of degrading ad except this time they (inaccurately)attribute the comments about Mexico and immigrants to Barack Obama.

So will McCain's attempt at making Obama seem anti-Hispanic work? Andres is right - it's not working. NDN and analysts across the board believe the large numbers of Hispanic voters in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida could be decisive in those swing states. Our latest polling in these states showed that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain by at least 30 points among Hispanics in the Southwest, and specifically on the issue of immigration, Hispanics believe Barack Obama would do a better job than John McCain. Even in Florida, where the candidates were even among Hispanics (42%-42%), when asked about immigration, 42% of voters trusted Barack Obama to better handle the issue over 37% preferring John McCain. The largest difference was in Nevada, where 60% of Hispanics trusted Barack Obama more on the issue of immigration, while only 18% preferred John McCain.

And the latest ad makes no sense when put in context - on the one hand, the McCain campaign launches this ad to attempt to portray Obama as anti-immigrant, while on the other hand, they create another ad in English and Spanish that attacks Obama for allegedly voting against allowing people to own guns in order to defend themselves from these "criminal aliens" who are "crossing illegally into our country." So which is it?

In a year when the Hispanic electorate has nearly doubled from what it was in 2000 (from 7.5 million to approximately 14 million this year), given that Hispanics make up a large part of the electorate in key Southern and Western states, and given that Hispanics are mobilizing to get out the vote, to vote early and vote absentee in those states, it does not bode well for John McCain.

 

 

It's been quite a week for NDN in the media.

Yesterday, Fox News gave Michael Moynihan and NDN's Green Project a lot of the credit (or blame? You Decide...) for getting legislation to create a Clean Energy Investment Bank into the House. Michael also got good mentions from the Carbon Tax Center and Carbon Control News.

Rob and Simon's critical work on solving the financial crisis and keeping people in their homes was covered in The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press (twice, here and here), The Chicago Sun-Times, The Huffington Post,  The Hill, and The Phoenix.

NDN's work on immigration reform and Hispanic issues was covered by several major news sources this week, including Newsweek, The Guardian, and NPR, as well as Fort Collins Now, The Miami New Times, HispanicTips.com, and Scoop.

The Washington Post and HispanicTips.com covered the expansion of NDN affiliate The New Policy Institute's Adelante campaign, which has new ads airing in the DC Metro area in addition to Colorado and Nevada. The Statesman also covered the campaign.

Finally, Simon is quoted in The American Prospect this week on the internal dynamics of the evolving Democratic majority in Congress.

When I first learned that U.S. Sen. John McCain had drafted Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate, I remember calling friends and saying, "Stick a fork in it. It's over. McCain is crazy. Obama's in."

Then came Palin's Oscar-worthy convention speech, the re-energized GOP base, the media frenzy. Suddenly, McCain wasn't so stupid. Or at least his advisers weren't.

Fast forward to now, five weeks later, the day of the first vice presidential debate. And what am I now? I am obsessed with Sarah Palin.

I am obsessed with Sarah because she's gotten this far on so little. To some, she has become a national joke. But to others, she has become a national hope. How can people in the same country looking at the same person feel so differently?

Apparently, even Palin's limited exposure has started to give pause to more and more Americans. According to a new Pew poll, "...opinions about Sarah Palin have become increasingly negative, with a majority of the public (51%) now saying that the Alaska governor is not qualified to become president if necessary; just 37% say she is qualified to serve as president. That represents a reversal of opinion since early September, shortly after the GOP convention. At that time, 52% said Palin was qualified to step in as president, if necessary."

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll had similar bad news for Sarah Barracuda: "Though she initially transformed the race with her energizing presence and a fiery convention speech, Palin is now a much less positive force: Six in 10 voters see her as lacking the experience to be an effective president, and a third are now less likely to vote for McCain because of her."

Ouch.

The more she opens her mouth (or just shuts it and smiles and smirks), the more her poll numbers drag her and McCain toward the abyss. In a column yesterday in the Washington Post, Ruth Marcus asked how McCain could be dismissive of Obama's alleged inexperience when McCain had chosen Palin. Marcus noted that Palin said she has been educated about the world -- and thus is ready to lead -- by having read extensively. And what did she read?

This would be more reassuring if Palin had demonstrated more evidence of having read extensively about history or world affairs. Asked in an interview for PBS's Charlie Rose show last year about her favorite authors, Palin cited C.S. Lewis -- "very, very deep" -- and Dr. George Sheehan, a now-deceased writer for Runner's  magazine whose columns Palin still keeps on hand.

"Very inspiring and very motivating," she said. "He was an athlete and I think so much of what you learn in athletics about competition and healthy living that he was really able to encapsulate, has stayed with me all these years."

Also, she got a Garfield desk calendar for Christmas 1987 that made a big impression.

While I saw the whole series of Katie Couric interviews with Palin , I was most horrified by the installment in which Couric asks the Alaska governor about Roe v. Wade. While I am very strongly pro-choice, I accept that other people may feel very differently. I didn't have a problem with Palin's answer that she wanted to encourage a "culture" of life.

My problem, then? When Couric asked her if she could name another U.S. Supreme Court decision she disagreed with, she couldn't name one. Nothing. Nada. Zero. She just kept repeating the same words over and over -- buzz words about states' rights -- in a pathetic attempt to let the clock run out:

Couric Why, in your view, is Roe v. Wade a bad decision?

Sarah Palin: I think it should be a states' issue not a federal government-mandated, mandating yes or no on such an important issue. I'm, in that sense, a federalist, where I believe that states should have more say in the laws of their lands and individual areas. Now, foundationally, also, though, it's no secret that I'm pro-life that I believe in a culture of life is very important for this country. Personally that's what I would like to see, um, further embraced by America.

Couric: Do you think there's an inherent right to privacy in the Constitution?

Palin: I do. Yeah, I do.

Couric: The cornerstone of Roe v. Wade.

Palin: I do. And I believe that individual states can best handle what the people within the different constituencies in the 50 states would like to see their will ushered in an issue like that.

Couric: What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?

Palin: Well, let's see. There's, of course in the great history of America there have been rulings, that's never going to be absolute consensus by every American. And there are those issues, again, like Roe v. Wade, where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So you know, going through the history of America, there would be others but …

Couric: Can you think of any?

Palin: Well, I could think of … any again, that could be best dealt with on a more local level. Maybe I would take issue with. But, you know, as mayor, and then as governor and even as a vice president, if I'm so privileged to serve, wouldn't be in a position of changing those things but in supporting the law of the land as it reads today.

I was embarrassed for Palin and embarassed by the fact that she has come this far based on the ability of the GOP to continually market their inferior products in a superior way.

Let tonight's debate begin.

A trillion here, a trillion there... A new ad from Barack Obama  critiques John McCain for his profligate spending plan. Obama wonders: Can we afford John McCain?

In yet another episode of the Sarah Palin-Katie Couric serial interview saga, Palin talked to the CBS anchorwoman about issues ranging from what newspapers she reads (she didn't name a specific one) to whether a 15-year-old girl raped by her father should have access to an abortion (she would encourage the child not to).

The interview aired last night and follows previous Palin-Couric interviews, which have been seen as disastrous for Palin, as she stumbled her way through them or just stopped talking and started smiling. I haven't yet been able to find the rumored segment of a portion of a Palin-Couric interview in which the Alaska governor can name only one U.S. Supreme Court decision (Roe V. Wade). If anyone unearths it, please let me know. 

Notably, the Couric interviews have prompted criticism not only from Democrats, but also from prominent conservatives, including George Will.

One interesting tidbit: making small talk between different segments of the interview, Palin did make a candid admission to Couric that, "Sweat is my sanity." Seems moose hunting has taken a backseat for the time being.   

With a few exceptions here and there (like not being able to name a single newspaper), Palin seems a bit surer of herself in this interview.

You can judge for yourself here:

Palin also found time to do a radio interview that involved decidedly more softballs (and decidely more six-packs).

According to ABC News:

In a radio interview with conservative blogger and columnist Hugh Hewitt, Palin says she’s not concerned by criticisms of her performance in recent network interviews with ABC's Charles Gibson and CBS' Katie Couric, which many -- including some former conservative supporters -- have said showed her unprepared to be vice president.

"Oh, I think they're just not used to someone coming in from the outside saying you know what? It's time that normal Joe six-pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they’re out of sorts, and they’re ticked off about it," Palin told Hewitt.

Palin, who has complained this week about “gotcha journalism” on the campaign trail, told Hewitt that she invites the scrutiny, and that her recent media appearances have helped her better articulate her positions and prepare for her upcoming vice presidential debate with Sen. Joe Biden on Thursday.

“I have a degree in journalism also, so it surprises me that so much has changed since I received my education in journalistic ethics all those years ago,” Palin said when asked by Hewitt whether the Gibson and Couric interviews felt like “pop quizzes designed to embarrass” her. "I’m going to take those shots and those pop quizzes and just say that’s okay, those are good testing grounds. That makes somebody work even harder. It makes somebody be even clearer and more articulate in their positions. So really I don’t fight it. I invite it.”

And more from ABC News on Palin's new Joe Six-Pack gambit:

As the political world braces for Wednesday's Wall Street bailout vote in the U.S. Senate, Sarah Palin is stepping up her "Joe-Six Pack" pitch.

"It's time that normal Joe Six-Pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they're out of sorts, and they're ticked off about it," Palin said Tuesday on the Hugh Hewitt show. "But it's motivation for John McCain and I to work that much harder to make sure that our ticket is victorious, and we put government back on the side of the people of Joe Six-Pack like me."

Just went on-line.  Will hit the stands Friday.  You can read it here.

U.S. Sen. John McCain is out on the campaign trail today in Des Moines. In an effort to sound presidential, he said, "Bipartisanship is a tough thing; never more so when you're trying to take necessary but publicly unpopular action. But inaction is not an option," according to CNN.

I guess bipartisanship doesn't include TV ads.

McCain has a new ad up today, and in the Arizona senator's new spirit of reaching across the aisle, the ad blames the Democrats and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama for allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deteriorate to the point that the U.S. government had to take them over (thus sparking one of the flames that has set Wall Street ablaze).

Funny. McCain's ad doesn't mention that Fannie Mae paid $15,000 a month from the end of 2005 until just last month to a company owned by McCain campaign manager Rick Davis before it went under. Nor does it mention that McCain said recently that Davis had no involvement with the company for several years. Wrong.

The new McCain ad includes a special cameo (probably not willingly) by former President Bill Clinton. You can watch it here.