Presidential Campaign

During the Presidential Primaries this year, I commented on the possibility that U.S. Senator John McCain may not be performing as strong in Arizona as most people would assume, and that there was a possibility that Arizona could be in play in November. As someone who follows demographic and political trends, I noticed that there were several factors that make Arizona competitive. I was delighted to read recently in the NY Times that they have also noticed this opportunity, and a recent Zogby Poll showed McCain losing his home state by 3 points.

The 2006 elections in Arizona provided a lot of reasons to notice that Democrats were performing better in this state, and that the state Republican Party was suffering. However, it was the Super Tuesday Primaries that confirmed to me that McCain was extremely vulnerable in his home state. McCain assumed frontrunner status in the Republican Presidential contests after winning the state of Florida shortly before the Super Tuesday Primaries on February 5th when Arizona held its' contest. The Primary season showed that the all the major candidates performed well in their home states except for John McCain. Former Governor Mike Huckabee received 61% of the vote in Arkansas and former Governor Mitt Romney received 51% in Massachusetts after having withdrawn from the Presidential race. Both of these contests took place on February 14th after John McCain swept the Super Tuesday Primaries. However, McCain only garnered 47% of the vote in Arizona. Less than half of Arizona Republican Primary voters supported John McCain.

So why is it that McCain performed so badly in his home state? Well I think that there are several factors for that. Arizona is one of those southwestern states that are experiencing rapid growth. There are literally thousands of new residents and voters that have never seen McCain's name on a ballot or know what his positions are on relevant issues. Also, McCain has not had a serious challenger for the US Senate since being elected 1986. That is more than two decades of minimal campaigning in his home state, during which Arizona almost doubled its population. Since the 2004 General Election alone there are more than 100,000 new voters in Arizona. You combine that with the fact that the Arizona Democratic Party has been more organized and energized than in previous cycles, and have an incredibly popular leader in Governor Napolitano, and you begin to get a scenario that could prove problematic for McCain.

Finally, you add the Immigration factor and Hispanics. The conventional wisdom during the primaries was that McCain would have an easy task courting Hispanic voters given his previous performance with this constituency. However, this has not been the case. My post a few days ago notes that McCain has been struggling with to reach Hispanics for most of the election cycle.

So you have at least three major factors that are impacting the stability of Arizona as a safe state for McCain: 1) the changing demographics; 2) an improved State Democratic Party; and 3) Hispanic dissatisfaction with McCain. We will save discussion about the Libertarian/Barr factor, the Independent Voters factor, the terrible policies of McCain and his poorly managed campaign for a later post.  Although there is still time for McCain to reclaim his home state advantage, the fact that he will have to spend resources doing so means that he won't be able to invest those resources into states like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. This is not a good position for McCain to be in this late in the summer. His troubles will only be more complicated once his campaign and the rest to country also realize that this same scenario is playing out in Texas. Stay tuned for more information on the changing dynamics of the Lone Star State.

After snowy Iowa and New Hampshire the Presidential campaign has gone national, adding states like Florida, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina and then the unprecedented Super primary on February 5th.

On the Democratic side we are seeing the first year of a new nominating calendar which was designed to involve two regions - the South and the West - and two groups - African-Americans and Hispanic - to the traditional Iowa and New Hampshire Midwest, Northeast and largely white mix.

The idea of broadening this primary calendar to include these 2 new regions and 2 important communities was something I championed in my race for DNC Chair in 2005. Of all the candidates running I was the only one who was willing to challenge the old system, a system that only once had produced a Democratic candidate who received more than 50 percent of the vote in the general election (Carter 1976), and which was simply not representative of the nation America had become. I was very pleased when the DNC adopted a plan very similar to mine in the spring of 2005, which choose Nevada and South Carolina as the representatives states of these regions.

Embracing these regions and voters is particularly important to Democrats, the much more diverse party of the two political parties. In 2008 minority voters will make up perhaps 25% of all those who vote, and may be as much as 40% of those who vote Democratic in 2008. While it may be another 40 years before the nation becomes majority "minority," the Democratic Party is likely to become a majority minority Party within the next ten years or so as the African-American, Hispanic and Asian populations grow in the US and remain largely Democratic. Given the way the Electoral College has played out in recent elections, the Democrat's new emphasis on Hispanics and the heavily Hispanic states of AZ, CO, FL, NM and NV could alone swing the Presidential race to the Democrats in 2008 (see our recent magazine article "The 50 Year Strategy" for more on this).

As I wrote the other day helping our people embrace this new much more diverse America of the 21st century - and other emerging demographic realities like the rise of Millennials and the movement of the population to the South and West - is one of the modern progressive movements most urgent strategic challenges. By adopting this new map, by the historic diversity of the Presidential field, by the emergence of a Western-based Congressional leadership and the placement of their convention in Denver this year, it is clear that the Democrats are increasingly becoming a party built around the emerging demographic realities of 21st century America.

Vist here for a new NDN Backgrounder on Nevada, Immigration and Hispanics, here for an excellent Dan Balz overview of the upcoming Super Duper Tuesday in the Washington Post today and see below from on the ground reports from NDN staffers Joe Garcia and Travis Valentine from Nevada. This more national orientation should be on full display tonight in the Democratic debate from Las Vegas.