Barack Obama

President-elect Barack Obama is scheduled to deliver a major speech tomorrow at George Mason University in Virgina to sell his historic stimulus proposal.

I'm no economist, but thankfully NDN has Dr. Rob Shapiro on hand. NDN Green Project Director and Fellow Michael Moynihan is a serious economic commentator and NDN President Simon Roseneberg is as well.

What I do know is that this is no ordinary spending proposal. This is a stimulus of historic proprortions that reflects the national and global recession we have entered and the enormity of the challenge of recovering from the collapse of the U.S. housing market and crash of U.S. and global financial markets.

Michael has long argued (here and here) that such a massive recovery measure needs an oversight board to ensure that it is administered effectively, in a timely manner and without the waste that can erode public and investor confidence.

NDN issued a statement today from Michael and Simon:

NDN Lauds Obama's Move to Create Stimulus Oversight Board

NDN today applauded President-elect Barack Obama’s commitment to create an Economic Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board.

NDN Fellow and Green Project Director Michael Moynihan proposed the creation of such a board over a month ago, arguing that how the stimulus is administered is as critical to getting America’s economy moving again as its dollar amount.

"American taxpayers are collectively about to make the largest investment of their lifetimes," Moynihan said. "To ensure that the stimulus succeeds in creating jobs while also creating the basis for future growth, it is vital that they get value for their money."

Moynihan continued, "President-elect Obama’s decision to create an emergency recovery board, put details of the progress of infrastructure projects online and ban earmarks are the right actions at the right time to protect taxpayers' money. To administer a program of this magnitude, it is critically important to implement tough auditing and supervision."

Simon Rosenberg, President of NDN, said, "As excited as we are at NDN about the speed with which clean stimulus is now moving forward, moving money out quickly but also responsibly is vital to making this historic stimulus work. If the money is spent wastefully, or perceived as being spent wastefully according to political expediency, it will not only be a tragic missed opportunity but also reduce its impact and undermine market confidence."

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Note: Moynihan previously served in the Clinton Administration under U.S. Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Larry Summers.

Almost before the echoes of Barack Obama's Grant Park victory speech had died, away pundits and the blogosphere began to keep score about the effectiveness of his transition. In a way, a presidential transition is like a political spring training that gives the incoming manager and his team a chance to prepare and set the tone for what amounts to a four-year long regular season. Every transition presents opportunities for an incoming Administration to put together a game plan to deliver hardball policy ideas to give the new team an early lead in the beginning of the regular season. One danger the new team faces during the transitional pre-season is being suckered by the other side into playing for keeps before opening day. With President-elect Obama’s Cabinet and White House policy team largely in place, and the maneuvering over various economic bailout options mostly behind us, it’s time for some preseason analysis of the management decisions the Obama team has made.

This upcoming season is a particularly important one to get ready for because the new president is taking office during a political realignment. Realignments are rare events in U.S. politics, occurring only about once every four decades; the 2008 realignment is only the sixth in American electoral history. During and after a realignment, the old political truths–and the standards for judging presidential transitions–that appeared axiomatic during the preceding era no longer apply and the President-elect has to manage the process with an acute sensitivity to what the times demand.

As we indicated in our book, Millennial Makeover: MySpace, You Tube and the Future of American Politics, all political realignments are produced by the coming of age of a large, dynamic generation and the emergence of a new communication technology that effectively mobilizes the rising generation. All realignments give American politics an extreme makeover. However, because they are caused by different types of generations, either "idealist" or "civic," not all realignments are the same. Consequently, the standards for judging the success or failure of a presidential transition vary from one type of realignment to another.

Idealist generations, like the Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964), whose coming-of-age produced a realignment centered on Richard Nixon’s “law and order” campaign of 1968, try to impose their own personal morality on the country through the political process. Political debate in eras dominated by idealist generations often tends to focus on social or moral issues, not economic or foreign policy concerns. Because idealist generations are highly divided, ideological, and uncompromising, during these types of realignments, the most successful transitions are those that advance the ideological goals of the new president and his winning team.

The current realignment however, is a "civic" realignment, produced by the political emergence of America's newest civic generation, Millennials (born 1982-2003). Civic generations react against the efforts of divided idealist generations to advance their own moral causes. They expect their team to unify the country, focus on reenergizing political and governmental institutions and using those institutions to confront and solve pressing national issues left unattended and unresolved during the previous idealist era. The transition efforts of President-elect Obama should be measured against this set of expectations, not those of an idealist era like the one just ended.

Honest Abe's and FDR's Transition Lessons for Barack Obama

Previous civic realignments occurred in 1860 with the election of Abraham Lincoln and in 1932, when the Millennials' civic generation great grandparents, the GI Generation, put Franklin Roosevelt in the White House. It's no coincidence that these civic presidents, along with George Washington, top all lists of our greatest presidents. All three led the United States in resolving deep crises by inspiring and guiding new civic generations and creating, revitalizing, and expanding the country's civic institutions. It is this high historical standard that will set the bar for history’s evaluation of Obama’s presidency, making his preparation for the new season all the more challenging.

An incoming president during a civic realignment must avoid exacerbating the national crisis that he will soon inherit but also avoid being tied to the failed policies of the outgoing Administration. So far, President-elect Obama has been able to maneuver through this political thicket as deftly as Lincoln and FDR did after their own realigning elections.

Southern states began seceding from the Union within days of Lincoln's election. Lincoln attempted to reassure the South that he would do nothing to tamper with slavery in states where it already existed, but he could not keep secessionist states in the Union without acceding to their demands to permit slavery in new territories. That would have required him to reject his own principles and those of his Republican Party, something he was unable and unwilling to do.

The outgoing Democratic President, James Buchanan, argued that secession was unconstitutional, but also that he had no power to prevent it. Consequently, he did virtually nothing when the seceding states took control of federal institutions throughout the South and blockaded Fort Sumter in Charleston harbor. Lincoln waited until South Carolina actually fired on Fort Sumter before he announced his intention to use military force to relieve the federal garrison there. Not being precipitous or overly anxious made it easier for Lincoln to prepare for, rally, and lead the country in the war that followed.

The transition between the Administrations of Herbert Hoover and Franklin D. Roosevelt was far more strained. In contrast to Buchanan, Hoover made a number of post-election attempts to persuade or, in the view of pro-FDR historians, entrap Roosevelt into endorsing Hoover's monetary and fiscal policies. Hoover presented to FDR an offer to share power in the public interest, but what he really wanted Roosevelt to do was commit to killing the New Deal before it even started. In letters to conservative Republican senators, Hoover said that if the president-elect agreed to what Hoover wanted, "he will have ratified the whole major program of the Republican administration; that is it means the abandonment of 90 percent of the so-called new deal." More specifically, Hoover wanted his successor to renounce, among other things, aid to homeowners unable to pay their mortgages, public works projects, and plans for the Tennessee Valley Authority. FDR studiously avoided making any policy commitments or even responding to the outgoing president's efforts to contact him, going so far as to claim that a secretary had misplaced a letter to him from Hoover. FDR's ability to preserve his political independence and policy flexibility made the historically high-scoring first 100 days of his presidency possible.

Obama Is a Good Student of History

Both the Bush Administration and the Obama team seem to be well aware of the rocky Hoover-Roosevelt transition during which an already bad economy worsened. Both Obama and Bush wanted to avoid open conflict and strained to be, or at least appear, cooperative on issues such as the auto company bailout and the use of TARP funds to stabilize the nation’s financial system. This approach fits the promise of Barack Obama to avoid excessive partisan confrontation. It fits the desire of the Bush Administration to shape a historical record as positive as possible.

It is also clear, however, that Obama is attempting to follow in FDR’s footsteps by seeking to avoid collaborative policy making or commitments to continue any Bush Administration policies. For example, Obama’s economic team has resisted overtures from the Bush Administration to coordinate more fully on a financial sector rescue package or endorse the release of the second tranche of TARP funds. Instead, the Obama team has kept its focus on the next political season by pushing Congress to quickly pass an Obama-designed stimulus program even before January 20, 2009.

From the beginning of the transition, Obama and his team have repeated the mantra that the United States has "only one president at a time,” a nice way to say, “wait until spring training is over and the regular season starts before we start playing for real." Based upon the professionalism and historical sensitivity he has demonstrated during the transition, his team should be not only a pennant contender, but also one capable of winning the World Series of a civic realignment.

According to a release today from the Presidential Inaugural Committee,

In keeping with his commitment to make this inaugural celebration open and accessible to all Americans, President-elect Barack Obama will host the first-ever "Neighborhood Inaugural Ball" during this year's inaugural celebration. The ball will be the premier event of inauguration evening on January 20th and will take place at the Washington Convention Center.

With tickets available free or at an affordable price, it is the first official inaugural ball of its kind to be held during a presidential inauguration. A portion of tickets for this event will be set aside for District of Columbia residents. The ball will also feature a robust interactive component, including webcasting and text messaging, to link neighborhoods across the country with the new President and this premier event. The PIC will release more details soon about using technology to allow Americans who are attending neighborhood balls across the country to participate actively in this celebration.

This is a great move on President-elect Obama's part. Symbolically, it reinforces his message of creating a more open, "bottom-up" Washington; inaugural balls are usually highly exclusive and/or prohibitively expensive, and making this experience available to everyone is a great gesture. At the same time, it is also a great way to maintain and expand his technological presence and keep the momentum he built up during the campaign. Like the text-message VP announcement, this will surely help Obama down the road as he tries to build broad-based public support for his initiatives.  

On yesterday's Meet the Press, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid discusses hopeful prospects for immigration reform in 2009:

MR. GREGORY: Let me ask you about politics.  This is what you told Roll Call two days after the election of Barack Obama.... "‘I think the country has moved to the center,'... ‘I think people want us to get things done.'" Let me test that proposition.  On immigration, do you have a deal between the president-elect and Senator McCain for immigration reform?...

...SEN. REID: "We need comprehensive immigration reform." That was a conversation I had with John McCain.  Yes, we need comprehensive immigration reform.  And what does that mean?  It means we have to make sure our borders are protected, our northern and southern borders.  We have to do something about the millions of people here who are undocumented.  We have to put them on, on a pathway to legalization.  Does that mean that they get to the head of the line?  Of course not.  They'd have penalties and fines and learn English and stay out of trouble.  We have to also do something on a guest worker program and we have to do something about the employer sanctions that works. John McCain believes that should happen.  I believe that should happen. That's...

MR. GREGORY: And he's discussed it with the president-elect?...

MR. GREGORY: McCain has?

SEN. REID: I don't know, but he's discussed it with me.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.  You think you've got a deal, a prospect of a deal.

SEN. REID: I have, I have John McCain's word that he's going to work real, real hard on immigration reform....

...SEN. REID: And I'll, and I'll work with him.

Gov. Bill Richardson Withdraws From Consideration as Commerce Secretary - This news is not only unfortunate for the President-elect and his team and for the country as a whole, it is bad news for immigration reform.  This Governor's support of reform and criticism of half-measures (such as "enforcement-only"), his legislative, executive, and international experience made him particularly qualified to put a great deal of weight behind comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) legislation in a time of economic crisis as Secretary of Commerce.  Luckily, we still have strong champions for CIR in the administration with Gov. Napolitano as DHS Secretary and Rep. Hilda Solis as Secretary of Labor.  The confluence of immigrants and labor is exactly what the current administration has not been able to get right.  What Ms. Solis and the President-elect seem to understand is that by upholding workers' rights, even for the undocumented, you uphold wage and labor rights for all working Americans.  It is indespensable that Barack Obama name a new nominee for Secretary of Commerce that posseses the same passion and ability of Gov. Richardson to strengthen coalitions in favor of CIR in order to pass CIR in 2009.

An article in The Hill comments on what will likely be early tests on immigration for Barack Obama upon assuming the Presidency, and Spanish-language media demonstrates that the Hispanic community has not forgotten Obama's commitments in this area.  Univision's Sunday morning program, Al Punto, aired an "end of the year" summary that featured five stories - four of the five had an immigration focus.  Next to job creation, immigration reform is the top issue on the minds of Latinos for 2009.  The analysts on Al Punto highlighted that as the economy improves, there will be a need to address the economic demand for workers so that businesses can meet their needs legally, and to ensure labor and wage standards for all workers.

The Hispanic community won't forget the promise of immigration reform - This Sunday, Al Punto had a feature on immigration reform in 2009 and re-played an interview with Barack Obama from May 28, 2008.  When asked whether he was committed to passing immigration reform "in his first year," he replied, "yes, in my first year."  Frank Sharry appeared on this segment commenting on the current climate of fear among immigrant communities.  

President-elect Obama on Raids - During the same interview that took place in May and was replayed this Sunday, Obama was asked how he would handle raids.  He responded that he considered raids a "good public relations move," to make it seem like the government is doing something, but they don't solve the problem in the long-term.  He recognized the terror that affects communities as something to be given due consideration, "I don't think it is the American way to capture a mother and separate her from her child," and not think of the consequences.  Clearly raids are a part of the general review the President-elect will undertake.  Rather than demand or expect him to issue an order "halting raids," I think we can expect Obama to shift the focus of enforcement to going after unscrupulous employers, criminal aliens, and human traffickers.

How to convince Barack Obama that reform is needed this year? - This question was posed on the Sunday morning Spanish-language show.  I would posit that the bigger question is how to make sure we educate legislators in both chambers on this issue.  The bottom line is that American voters voted for Obama and for a large number of Democratic legislators as a repudiation of the inaction of the past eight years.  CIR provides the opportunity to demonstrate a will to govern, to take action and solve problems - particularly at a time of economic crisis.  The economy and immigration go hand in hand.  Immigration is a national security issue, it is an economic issue with economic roots and consequences.  By ignoring the undocumented and those who are wanted as workers, you encourage the exploitation that erodes working conditions and job security everywhere.  In a time of economic crisis, the stability and dignity of the work force are especially vital.  This is also why CIR must not be limited to addressing the legalization of the undocumented - CIR must address issues of future flow and it must revamp the entire visa system.  The existing visa system is outdated, unfair, and clearly unrealistic given that most of the undocumented came into the country legally and overstayed their visas.  With the amount of work immigration reform will take, it is vital that it is truly "comprehensive." 

Re: A long road back for the GOP - An interesting article in the CQ, "The Republican Search for Self Better Find Something Quickly," echoes what NDN has been writing about in Simon's post on their "long road back" and my post on how the current GOP is so out of touch - intentionally or not - with 21st century America.  John Bicknell writes: "Republicans are going to have to figure out who they are, and how that identity is relevant to modern America. And they are going to have to do it in less than two years. Otherwise, they could well find themselves on their way to another 40 years in the wilderness." For Democrats, CIR represents a great deal of opportunities to prove their ability to govern, and for Republicans, passing CIR can be the first step out of the wilderness.  

More Examples of our Broken Immigration System:  All of which exacerbate undocumented migration - 1) Marriage Fraud - CQ covers a CIS study as part of a larger piece on marriage fraud and immigration.  While CIS is a known hate group as identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center, and even though we have no factual basis with which to accept their data, even one fraudulent marriage is one too many, and it demonstrates the insufficient legal means for immigration in our laws.  

"The real problem with marriage and immigration law and policy is how the government disrespects the marriages of U.S. citizens and legal immigrants who obey the rules," Paul Donnelly, spokesman for American Families United, which works to reunite Americans' foreign spouses and children, said in an interview....Legal permanent residents have to wait almost five years - nearly eight years for Mexicans - to bring a foreign-born spouse or child into the United States. Americans who marry foreigners that have overstayed prior visas or have been discovered in the country illegally cannot bring that spouse or child into the country for at least three years, with a maximum 10-year term of inadmissibility if the visa overstay is greater than one year or the foreigner is deported.

2) Immigrants priced out of legal status - Only about half of all Central American immigrants eligible for a renewal of their temporary protected status actually filed for their renewals.  Many of these immigrants could not afford the filing fees due to having been laid off or having their number of work hours cut in this time of economic recession.  

3) The Face of Slavery - As long as there are insufficient legal channels for immigrants to come into the country, and as long as those existing channels remain slow and bureaucratic, we will continue to see crimes against humanity like those shown in this New York Times feature - examples of human trafficking and slavery into which women and children fall as they try to achieve the American dream.

The State of Courts - Chief Justice Roberts provided his annual report on the state of the federal courts, which showed bankruptcy filings rose by 30%, filings concerning criminal charges in immigration cases jumped by 27% (the cases are concentrated in the Southwest).  "Criminal charges" could mean criminal activity, or they could mean cases like the one that occurred in Iowa, where many undocumenteds with no IDs or social security numbers unkowingly signed guilty pleas for identity theft.  In the meantime, prosecution of sex offense cases grew by only 9%, and the number of drug cases actually dropped by 7%.  Chief Justice Roberts explained, "Those reductions occurred when investigative agencies shifted their focus from drugs to terrorism and sex offenses." 

Hate Crimes - Two Hispanic youths assaulted a 28 year-old Hispanic woman in San Francisco.  The woman is a lesbian who lived with her partner near the boys, the crime has been qualified as a hate crime.  This horrific crime is made more appalling by the fact that it occurs at a time when Hispanics are crying out in protest against the hate crimes that resulted in the murders of several Latino immigrants and as communities are fighting for their right to be free of fear of having hate crimes perpetrated.  How can we demand certain behavior of other communities if we don't begin with our own? 

Speaking of Border Security - A couple, their children, and family of 7 were killed en route from Dallas, TX to Mexico.  As they were about to cross the border in Texas, they drove on a bridge half of which had collapsed during rain storms.  There were no road blocks, not a single sign warning of the end of the bridge, so as the family drove during the night they fell over the edge of the bridge into a river, only one grandmother survived.

Al Franken to the Senate - It is expected that Al Franken will be declared the winner today in his race against Norm Coleman.  This is good news for immigration reform, click here to see Sen.-elect Franken's position on CIR. UPDATE:  Franken declared winner.   

As I am not yet really back from my vacation, I offer up a some quick thoughts on a subject I promise to explore more in the new year - the difference between progress and motion. 

The analogies we've heard - a New New Deal, Obama's 100 days, etc, a new FDR - all hearken back to a period of governance and leadership, that while simplistically similar to what the nation is experiencing today, is not at all the same. I worry that the Democrats and the incoming President are raising expectations too high, and in some ways, missing the zeitgeist of this moment. There is no quick fix to what we are experiencing now, no wave of a Congressional wand. We are not at 25 percent unemployment, and the fighting in Gaza reminds all of us that there are problems that defy easy solution even with the remarkable team Obama has built.  

The problems the Democrats are inheriting are much more structural than cyclical or temporal. Solving them will require far-sighted leadership, a steady hand and a strong management ethic that creates a culture of patient investment. Consider the challenges - how to get wages and incomes up once growth resumes; how to manage the societal, economic and political fallout of the first global recession of this new age of globalization; how to truly confront climate change; how we finally and successfully modernize our health care system, allowing universal coverage, lower prices and continued innovation; how to deal with the structural defecits left by the Republicans at the moment the Baby Boom generation begins to retire; how we best fix our broken immigration system; how to rebuild trust in the American financial system, and in the American brand abroad; how we move our people and our infrastructure into the more technology-dense and low-carbon future required for our success; how to best transform the great belt of instability from Lebanon to Pakistan into more democratic, prosperous and stable societies; and how the rise of new powers like China, India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia is creating competition to America's economic and political prowess in ways that we are only just beginning to understand.  

None of these challenges (and there are many more) have easy, quick, off-the-shelf, battle-tested, bipartisan solutions sitting there, ready to go. While the Democrats come off their strongest showing in the last 44 years of American politics, their majorities are still moderate in size, full of new and inexperienced members, with leaders who are fully in control of their caucuses but not yet fully experienced in leading a majority party -- a party that must now accomplish big things. The dynamic driving American politics these last two cycles has been as much about unhappiness with wages and incomes as it has been unhappiness with Bush - he is gone now, and no one really understands how to both get the economy going again and get incomes up.   

In stocking his government with smart, experienced and ambitious people, the incoming President is building a team capable of rising to the challenges we face today. But what the American people are looking for now is concrete progress, material changes to their lives.   The time for symbolic action, great focus on small-bore issues, loads and loads of congressional press conferences taking credit for things that no one believes matter very much, is over. This is a time in which our leaders need to show the American people that they get it, and explain that we have big and hard things to do; that doing them well will require patience, strong leadership and time; that they will stay focused each and every day on the big stuff and resist with all their might getting distracted by the ankle-biting politics of the every day. This would be hard in any circumstance, but will be particularly hard in the age of cable TV news and the new 24/7/365 news beast which requires to be fed each and every day, sometimes more than once...

After having lived in Washington for 16 years now, I have come to understand the difference between powerful action and motion. To a great degree, Congress, where power is so diffuse, can often be more about motion, about the perception of activity rather than action itself. But this is no time for that now - this is a time in which the Democrats must evaluate their success not in the numbers of press conferences they hold, but in how they have materially made things better for our people and the people of the world. Doing so will require patience, discipline, restraint, strong and sober leadership, time - the very opposite of a motion-filled 100 days being recommended by some. This isn't 1933. Obama isn't FDR. It is 2009, Obama is Obama, and the very 21st century challenges we face require very 21st century solutions and very 21st century leaders to bring them about.  Progress, true progress, is going to take time and it is critical that our leaders level with us about this if they truly want our partnership in helping tackle these great challenges together over the next generation.

If this culture shift is what the age of Obama brings, then we will have indeed entered an era of "new politics."

In a new Huffington Post story by Sam Stein on the GOP's now infamous Magic Negro song, I offer this observation: 

"The core play in the GOP playbook for 44 years has been the magic negro
playbook," said Simon Rosenberg, head of Democratic organization NDN
and one of the most well-versed party figures on racial politics. "They
don't have another play or another playbook. Whether it is Willie
Horton, or welfare queens and tax and spend, or the way they have dealt
with immigration... they don't have a play in their playbook that
doesn't start with the exploitation of racial divisions... They are
going to have to reject 44 years of GOP politics in order to have any
chance in the 21st century America."

That a major candidate for RNC Chair could produce this song, at this time, in this year, is yet another example of why for the GOP theirs is A Long Road Back, a topic I covered in a recent essay on our blog.  Their recent success as a national Party was built on an approach towards race that spoke to a different racial reality in America, an American one where could get away with magic negro songs, and much much worse of course.  But that America - a white/black, majority/minority America - is now an historic relic, and is in the process of being replaced by an America that has 3 times as many minorities as it did just 44 years ago, and is on track to be majority minority by 2042 (for more on this historic demographic transformation see here).  But for many in the GOP, including ones who might become their Chairman, they know no other politics than this Southern Strategy era politics, a politics that has been rejected once and for all by the American people of today's America.  

It is important that the leaders of the GOP have begun to confront its shameful racial past.  But their problem has no simple or easy fix.  It will require a complete refashioning of their politics around a very different set of 21st century demographics and a much more tolerant understanding of race in America - and a complete and utter repudiation of much of their domestic agenda for the past half century.  Which is major reason why I think their road back is such a long one - many of their leaders came to power by becoming expert in this kind of politics; it is the core play in their playbook; it is the foundation of their domestic agenda; and they know little else.  Their old Southern Strategy dogs aren't going to learn new tricks - for the GOP they will have to slowly, over time, replace their anarchronistic leaders with ones schooled in the modern governing challenges, modern media and technology and modern demography of our day.  The process of watching this generational replacement take place will be one of the most interesting political stories of the next 10-20 years, and of course has become all the more necessary in the age of Obama.  

How many reading this blog are aware that of the hundreds of Republicans in the Senate and House, just 5 are technically minorities - 4 Cuban-Americans from South Florida and a new Vietnamese-American from Louisiana? No African-Americans, no non-Cuban Hispanics.  In a nation now one-third minority the Washington Republicans remain 98 percent white and deeply out of touch with the emerging and much more complicated racial construct of our day.  

My advice to them? As you remake your Grand Old Party look to Lincoln - not Nixon - for your inspiration. And good luck.  The nation will be better off with a 21st century Republican Party rather than the failed, disgraced and intolerant one we have today.

Update: For fun check out how our A Long Road Back argument was addressed and discussed at the conservative website Townhall the other day.  

Wed am Update: The debate rages on.  The WaPo weighs in with an editorial today, and the Politico reports that "'Magic Negro' Flap Might Help Saltsman."

Fri am Update: Paul Krugman chimes in today with a very good column that echoes some of these themes.

Over the past week the number of Hispanics/Latinos in Barack Obama's administration jumped to 7 individuals, an historic number, with the appointments of U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar and U.S. Rep. Hilda Solis.  Even before this week, Obama was already receiving praise for setting a record of top Hispanics in the Cabinet (full First Read Cabinet Census listed here).  The number of senior Latino staff to the White House might increase once again, if Adolfo Carrion is in fact named to head the White House Office of Urban Policy.  The Latinos named to the administration so far, and their posts: 

- Gov. Bill Richardson (NM), Secretary of Commerce
- Nancy Sutley (of an Argentine mother), Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality
- Moises "Mo" Vela, Director of Administration Office of the Vice President
- Luis Caldera, White House Military Office
- Cecilia Muñoz, Director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs
- U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO), Secretary of the Interior
- U.S. Rep. Hilda Solis (D-CA), Secretary of Labor

Additionally, Rep. Xavier Becerra was approached for the position of USTR, but it is reported that he decided to remain in the House of Representatives.  Rep. Becerra and others have been asked by the Spanish-language media if they feel that the number of Hispanics named is "sufficient," which completely misses the point of what these appointments mean.  As stated by Rahm Emanuel, "diversity wasn't the driving force here....most importantly, the quality is of a single standard.  We wanted to make sure that we got a great staff of seasoned people - both on the policy front and political front - who knew their stuff."  What we celebrate is not that Hispanics are filling some sort of quota, we celebrate that the new administration is inclusive and receptive of talent, regardless of background and ethnicity, and we celebrate that the Latinos being named are leaders who have excelled in their respective fields.   We celebrate that Latinos are not only a growing demographic, but that it is finally out in the open that they are also a part of the most talented pools of leadership in the United States.

As Simon has stated, these appointments mean that Democrats - and President-elect Obama - are working to build a very 21st century, and potentially durable, coalition.  They are discovering the new electoral map of this new century, and employ the latest and potent tools to engange the American people.  Obama particularly engages the Latino community through his Spanish-language updates and press releases on the inauguration, and through the Spanish translation of all his press releases and weekly address.  

NDN congratulates all of the Presidential nominees, particularly our friends and collaborators - Rep. Hilda Solis is a longtime friend of NDN's and provided important support to our affiliate Latino voter mobilization campaign, Adelante 08.  Gov. Richardson and Sen. Salazar are also longtime friends and formed part of NDN's founding advisory board. The nomination of our fellow Latinos not only demonstrates the power of the Latino vote, it is a reflection of the reality of our nation's demographic makeup and reflect's our nation's true mixed racial and ethnic identity.  We congratulate President-elect Obama's commitment to reflecting the talent that comes from this racial reality in his Administration. Moreover,  these appointments are proof of our community's abilities - these Latinos are also the most qualified people for the job. 

Yesterday my family went shopping at a local Apple Store for a new iPod for my wife (she chose a Nano). In between chasing my kids as they ran through the store, we were all greeted with a remarkable sight - a youngish Apple employee patiently teaching a class of 10 or so middle-aged adults about all this new fangled technology pouring out of Apple these days. Since then, I've thought a a lot about that image of seeing learning happening at a retail store right in the middle of the holiday rush. To me, it could become an inspiring image for this new age of Obama - America and its people retooling, together, for the new economy of the 21st century. 

The new economy of the 21st century will be many things, but we know it will and must be technology-rich, built on a low-carbon foundation and with the rise of nations like China, India, Brazil and Mexico, much more globally competitive. Successfully transitioning America and its people to this new economy is one of the incoming President's most daunting challenges, and one he seems to understand.  

NDN was pleased and excited last week when the incoming President embraced some ideas we've been aggressively advocating for - investments in greening government buildings, health IT, creating universal and ubiquitous broadband and computer access, including in our nation's public schools and overall investment in our nation's aging infrastructure. These are smart investments, ones that will not only help address the short-term challenges we face but also help accelerate our transition into this new economy.  

As he and his team consider other measures that have similar dual short- and long-term benefits, we hope that they take a serious look at another idea NDN has been promoting - offering free computer training to all Americans. NDN first proposed this idea in a compelling paper by Dr. Rob Shapiro last year, Tapping the Resources of America's Community Colleges: A Modest Proposal to Provide Universal Access to Computer Training. In it he wrote:

It is time that America ensures that all workers have real opportunities to build
the skills necessary to operate one of the most important new technologies of our time, computers. Young Americans are increasingly adept at working with computers, but many American workers still lack those skills. Here, we propose a direct, new approach to giving U.S. workers the opportunity to develop those skills, by providing federal government grants to America’s community colleges to keep open their computer labs three nights every week, staffed by instructors who will provide basic instruction to any person in the community who walks in and requests it.

The primary way any nation can ensure that its people enjoy broad‐based upward mobility is to raise the productivity of its workers and businesses. Achieving that goal, as the United States has done throughout most of its history, depends largely on three critical factors. First, the economy must promote the development and spread of new technologies, new ways of organizing and operating businesses, and other innovations that create new value and new efficiencies. Second, companies must invest in those technologies and in other business and economic innovations, so workers can use them to perform their jobs more productively. Finally, workers, companies, and the government must provide continuing support for all workers to acquire the skills to operate new technologies and perform well in innovative business environments.

The program proposed here, fully implemented, could provide that support and enable all American workers to learn basic computer skills at a total annual cost of less than $125 million a year.

Later in 2007, Senator Obama's campaign embraced the idea, and Democratic Caucus Chair John Larson has been working on a bill that would introduce the idea in the House. We discussed this idea, and a sister idea - putting a laptop in every backpack of every American child - at a forum last year with Rob, Rep. Larson and Transition Advisor Alec Ross.  

There is great societal power in this program, well beyond its surface appeal. Imagine if the President launched a multi-year campaign to challenge Americans to upgrade their skills, and become fluent in the new ways of the Internet and computers. That he would offer training, ubiquitous access and in exchange, we would all go back to school - making it patriotic to retool around these new technologies and this new way of working. Older public officials could take these classes and encourage their fellow citizens to do so. Community leaders could engage in public chats with students in newly wired schools. And so on. It could become a national, communal effort to move our society and people to this new economy, together, embodying this new ethic already articulated by President-elect Obama that what must be done must be done together, that there is a limit to what government can do.  That by embracing this national effort to retool we will ensure that no American is left behind in this new economy of the 21st century.

My hope is that this moment I witnessed in the Apple Store yesterday - Americans learning, retooling - becomes a a model for an entire generation, and that together we work to make sure all Americans have the tools they need to live, learn and prosper in the new economy of this daunting new century.

"Prison" for immigrants? - A note in Dubois, Pennsylvania's Courier Express discusses expansion plans for a privately run "federal prison for illegal immigrants." According to the story, the prison is under contract with the Federal Bureau of Prisons. My first question is: why are any immigrants going to prisons as opposed to detention centers? Or is this a case of criminals who are serving sentences and are found to be in the country illegally? I feel like important details were left out of the story, but if non-criminal aliens are somehow being held in prisons then we have a major issue.

The Impact of the 2008 Elections on Immigration, continued: 1. "Firewall" wins -Saxby Chambliss (R) won the runoff election in Georgia against Jim Martin (D) for the Senate. The runoff was widely covered by Time and Chambliss was even on Halperin's "Five Most Important People in American Politics Right Now Who Aren't Barack Obama." In addition to the political considerations, a win by Jim Martin would have meant a key vote in the Senate for immigration reform. Now Chambliss and the Republican party are touting this "big win."  This seat would have meant a huge win for Democrats, but it's important that Democrats put up such a fight in Georgia.  Vehemently anti-immigrant and anti-reform Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin couldn't have more different views on immigration and in their approach to governing - Chambliss has been politicking, selling himself as a "firewall to prevent Democratic excess," while Jim Martin had presented himself as the man who would provide a "bridge" to the change promised by President-elect Barack Obama, and that change includes immigration reform.

2. Reality sets in, in VA - Per a piece by Anita Kumar in the Washington Post, the Virginia Panel on Immigration is changing its ways, from the hard-line stance to more productive and realistic proposals. After seeing the hard-line anti-immigrant Republican candidates lose congressional elections all over the state, the members of this commission have apparently realized that the anti-immigrant positions they formerly took to score what they considered to be political points just don't work. The panel has shifted its focus from fighting illegal immigration to working with the ever-growing population of immigrants. Delegate Todd Gilbert (R-Shenandoah), who served on the commission and is staunchly anti-illegal immigration, noted "I can't totally disagree that some people are leery of the issue, because maybe it wasn't the wedge issue that some thought it would be," Gilbert said. The new recommendations provided by the panel to Gov. Tim Kaine include shortening the Medicaid residency requirements for certain qualified immigrants, offering in-state tuition to immigrants who meet specific criteria and creating an immigration assistance office. The commission also proposed increasing the number of English classes and creating a plan to address the needs of foreign-born residents and urged the federal government to compile more complete immigration statistics, increase the number of visas for foreign workers and pass comprehensive immigration legislation.

A Post op-ed also discusses the significance of this change in tone in Virginia in more detail: "....reform is as needed as ever. Only the federal government can get the job done, and the political climate may be more favorable than last time around." Of the 12 million illegal immigrants estimated to be in the United States, 250,000 to 300,000 live in Virginia, according to the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington. The U.S. Census Bureau says an additional 440,000 people in Virginia are not U.S. citizens but are in the state legally.

3. More Immigration Losers - The Wall Street Journal remarks: the GOP hardliners have to face the reality that immigration reform is not unpopular. This Opinion piece notes Virgil Goode's loss to Tom Perreillo - which became official this week. For the second straight election, incumbent Republicans who attempted to turn illegal immigration into a wedge issue lost their election. Anti-immigration hardliners Randy Graf, John Hostettler and J.D. Hayworth were among the Republicans who lost in 2006. In addition to Goode, joining them this year were GOP Representatives Thelma Drake (Virginia), Tom Feeney (Florida), Ric Keller (Florida)and Robin Hayes (North Carolina) - all Members of a House anti-immigration caucus that focuses on demonizing the undocumented and advocating for things like mass deportation and denying citizenship to U.S. born children of undocumented persons.

4. GOP Immigration Strategy Goes Down in Flames - El Paso newspaper citing the most recent poll conducted by America's Voice and Lake Research.

5. Jeb Bush Readies to Woo Hispanics- In an interview, most importantly, Bush said his party must embrace the nation's changing demographics:

"We can't ignore large segments of our population and expect to win," Bush said. "We can't be the ‘old white-guy' party. It's just not going to work, the demographics go against us in that regard...". "Among Hispanic voters, I think we need to change the tone of the conversation as it relates to immigration. In Florida, we've not participated much in the chest pounding and the yelling and the screaming. I mean, it just drives me nuts when there are substantive policy differences that we can show mutual respect on, but the tone needs to change. And I think we need to recruit more candidates who share our values in the Hispanic community. In Florida we've done that."

This provides a window into the strategy Jeb will use if he runs for Senate.

Intelligence Report: Anti-immigration Leader at Heart of White Nationalist Scene for Decades - This report just released by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) details more precisely what SPLC has been reporting for some time: John Tanton, the architect of the modern anti-immigration movement and founder of the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) has been at the heart of the white nationalist scene for decades, working with racist intellectuals, Klan lawyers and even Holocaust deniers.  Speaking of which, the "think tank" of the hate network funded by Mr. Tanton, Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) appears in this article on alleged "Green Card Marriage Fraud." While there is little data to substantiate the alleged incidence of fraud in marriages between one U.S. citizen and one non-citizen, even one case of fraud is unfortunate. In this regard, we thank CIS for furthering our argument for CIR - so long as the immigration system is broken and so long as there are insufficient legal channels for those currently living in the United States, or those wanting to come here, people will continue to find ways outside of the system to come here. So let's get a law passed that provides for a realistic number of visas, a speedier green-card process through employment and family, and additional realistic legal channels for permanent residence.

Outlook on Napolitano- A New York Times Editorial on the role Gov. Napolitano could play in achieving Comprehensive Immigration Reform as DHS Secretary. This op-ed makes many of the arguments NDN has posited on the inadequacy of "enforcement-only", and makes a compelling argument for the urgency of CIR:

How badly have [enforcement-only] efforts failed? Since Congress passed the Secure Fence Act of 2006, instead of comprehensive reform, 32 tunnels have been discovered under Arizona's border with Mexico, according to research by The Arizona Republic's Sean Holstege. That's more than all tunnels previously found in Arizona. Drug cartels finance tunnels, but transporting people into the country illegally has become so lucrative that drug smugglers increasingly are mixing their cargo. If the U.S. had a process to legally bring in needed foreign workers and legalize the current undocumented population, the reduction in the Border Patrol's workload would allow border law enforcement to focus on drug smuggling. There's reason to hope the new Congress will act on that simple reality.

The Immigration Crystal Ball - NPR is doing a great job focusing on border and immigration issues, Jennifer Ludden explores how enforcement priorities may change under President Obama and why "Immigration Experts Expect Fewer Workplace Raids." There's also a great deal of debate over whether immigration reform will happen, and when: 1) an interesting blog by Roberto Lovato, 2) A Dallas Morning News post by William McKenzie posits "Why Immigration May Go Forward," while a John Riley article in Dallas Morning News argues that immigration reform "Takes backseat to the economy."

No one really knows, all we can do is educate and advocate. The bottom line is that President-Elect Obama has demonstrated a commitment to immigration reform - he has spoken about this issue as a priority, and here's how he'll go about it.

The Economy and Immigration - And why should immigration and the economy be considered separate priorities, exclusive of each other? At NDN we've discussed why there is opportunity for immigration reform to form part of a new plan for the economy. In a post this week, Jeff Cornwall of Belmont University also posits that immigration may be part of the answer to give the economy an entrepreneurial boost:

Most studies find that immigrants are more likely to be entrepreneurs or self-employed than the population as a whole. The Philadelphia Business Journal reports on yet another study that adds more support....Current policy makes it difficult for entrepreneurs to enter the U.S. legally.

In a different post, Jaya Ramji-Nogales writes about one of the effects of the economic downturn on immigrants:

The "Lou Dobbs" effect; as xenophobic vitriol and resulting anti-immigrant sentiment has increased, so has violence against immigrants or those who appear to be immigrants. Add that to an economy in free-fall, and the result may be highly combustible.

Number of Undocumented Immigrants Continues to Fall - According the Center for International Trade of University of Texas at San Antonio, 1.3 million, or 11% of undocumented immigrants have returned to their home country this year. A right wing website similarly reports a dramatic decline, the difference is in the causes to which the decline is attributed. The UT study correctly attributes the decline to the economic crisis and a decrease in the supply of jobs, combined with increased raids and workplace enforcement. The nativist website draws a very incorrect and very dangerous conclusion: that "illegal immigrants" started heading home "immediately" after the failed attempt at CIR in the Senate in Summer of 2007, which is completely false. The first evidence of undocumenteds leaving began earlier this year, during late summer and Fall of 2008, in response to the economic crisis, as opposed to a bill in Congress. As we move forward, and as President Obama works with Congress to pass immigration reform, we have to be very careful to fight back against that 10% of people in the U.S. who will be spreading misinformation such as this.

Immigration Changing Course, A Story that Needs Telling - The Miami Herald has begun a series on the course of immigration, "It's an important story for a country built on immigration and yet often ambivalent about its impacts. Over a generation, new arrivals from Mexico, the Caribbean and throughout Latin America have reshaped this country. Nowhere is that more the case than in South Florida, where millions of legal immigrants and nearly one tenth of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States have settled."

Hate Crimes Changing Political Climate - On Tuesday, activists called for investigation of Suffolk hate crime statistics. This is the beginning of what we hope to be an ongoing PR campaign to encourage victims to report hate crimes, and to encourage law enforcement to crack down on such criminal activity.

El Universal reports an increase in remittances to Mexico over the last month, with immigrants taking advantage of the recent devaluation of the peso. Remittances rose 13% compared to October of 2007, coming to a total of about $2.4 billion. This is the first rise in remittances after 14 months of a consecutive decline. Even though they rose from last October, remittances are still less than they were in January of this year. And the AP reports on Philadephia's growing immigrant community.

In his weekly YouTube address today, President-elect Obama addressed the worsening state of the economy, and vowed to pass a sweeping economic recovery bill as one of his first acts in office. Listen to his full statement here:

NDN has been a strong advocate for a stimulus package that invests in our long-term economic future as well as focusing on short-term recovery. To read some of our recent writing on the topic, check out Simon and Rob's essay, A Stimulus for the Long Run, and Michael's essay, Accelerating the Development of a 21st Century Economy.

Aside from the policy Obama is proposing, one interesting thing about this Web video is that Obama is now using the medium to build support for his initiative, using the internet as a powerful tool to advance his agenda by employing and expanding the base of supporters he built through the election.