Joe the Plumber

Following last Wednesday night's final presidential debate, Simon offered some thoughts on U.S. Sen. John McCain's performance to the Washington Post's Dan Balz:

Democrat Simon Rosenberg said he thought McCain was aggressive and combative, but he did not think it would be enough to change the race. "In the last few weeks, the American people have learned a lot about these two senators. In Senator Obama, they've decided they see a future president. In Senator McCain, they see an admirable but aging politician who seems a little out of step with the moment."

This morning, the Associated Press is moving a great analysis piece by Beth Fouhy on the McCain campaign's seeming inability to lock in a stratetgy. In the report, Republican strategist Ed Rollins seems to say about the campaign what Simon said about the Arizona senator's debate performance:

"When you run a campaign without a strategy and everything becomes tactical and your tactics don't work, you respond by finding other tactics," Republican consultant Ed Rollins said. "Unfortunately, that's helped Barack paint the guy who is clearly better prepared to be commander in chief as erratic and not stable."

I worked in the U.S. Senate for many years. McCain had a horrible temper that was inappropriate to many, but he was a decent man who did a lot of good and took on a lot of fights that did earn him the maverick mantle. I don't know what happened to that man in this election. Someone got to him. The McCain I saw never would have picked Sarah Palin as a runningmate. Maybe that's why he seems to have lost his bearings. He is not where he wants to be. His legacy may be ruined by all of this gaudy ugliness.

Read the entire Fouhy piece. It's key to understanding what has caused the McCain campaign's deep wounds, largely self-inflicted. Some highlights follow, not necessarily in order:

The McCain campaign has always felt more improvisational than Obama's well-oiled machine, and the Arizona senator's years as a Navy pilot left him with a taste for daring feats. But recently, with polls showing McCain trailing Obama in several battleground states, his campaign operation has muddied McCain's message and complicated his efforts to gain ground.

Policy proposals have been floated and postponed. Lines of attack have been launched, then abruptly changed. And Joe the Plumber, like Sarah Palin before him, was pushed onto the national stage without a complete examination.

McCain has always said he prefers to be the underdog, and he rolled out a feisty speech this week vowing a spirited fight to Nov. 4. But he has at times also seemed exasperated with the state of affairs.

In an interview with a North Carolina television station this week, the Arizona senator said he didn't know when he would return to the battleground state. "You know, my schedule lurches from day to day," he said, an edge in his voice.

McCain aides, meanwhile, carry on their duties with an acute sense of grievance against the national media, a group the candidate once jokingly referred to as his base.

On the campaign plane, aides berated a reporter for The New York Times after an editing error wrongly suggested McCain hadn't pushed back against a supporter's claim that Obama was an Arab. And a Reuters photograph released after the debate that captured a calm Obama next to McCain in a goofy, flailing pose reduced one aide to tears.

Last Sunday, aides hinted McCain would offer new proposals and McCain's close friend South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham told CBS' "Face the Nation" that McCain would likely announce them soon. But on Monday, aides said McCain would have nothing until later in the week while Obama outlined new plans that day to help seniors cope with the market meltdown.

McCain finally released his proposals Tuesday, which made it appear he was playing catch-up to Obama and put his speech in competition with President Bush's announcement the government would spend $250 billion to buy partial ownership of leading banks.

As Simon wrote yesterday, the polls are going to tighten. McCain's numbers are going to go up as more of his base comes home. But as he says: tightening is not losing.

Just when you thought the spigot was off -- NOT.

Joe the Plumber is back. As readers may recall, JTP made his prime time debut last night during the final presidential debate between U.S. Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama. There was no doubt who the winner of that debate was -- yep. It was one Joe Wurzelbacher, who McCain invoked as an everyday guy just trying to get ahead -- a guy who would be crushed by an Obama Administration and its inevitable overflow of taxes.

My able deputy, Dan Boscov-Ellen, kept us updated -- and enthralled -- throughout the day. Seems Joe is no ordinary plumber. Heck, he doesn't even have a plumbing license. Worried about his taxes? Heck, he doesn't pay 'em. Oh, and what about being related to Charles Keating (of the Keating Five scandal that ensnared McCain)? Won't say who he'll vote for? He's a Republican.

Joe was an overnight -- if slightly sinking -- sensation. As my good friend Toby Harnden, U.S editor for the Telegraph reported:

"By the middle of Friday morning, Mr Wurzelbacher was in the top 10 searches on Google and had already been given an honoured place in the stump speech of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, Mr McCain's running mate. But the country's most sought-after media "get" was nowhere to be found. His mobile phone was turned off and he was said to be en route to New York for what a local news editor described darkly as a 'paid interview.'"

Apparently, some alarm bells had gone off inside the McCain campaign about the wisdom of using Joe as a human prop -- was he a PR pressure tank? But that hasn't stopped the campaign from turning the faucets full-on.

That's right. The McCain campaign has launched a new ad starring -- Joe the Plumber, which attacks Obama on -- taxes! While Obama is spending record amounts on TV ads, this new buy may drain McCain's relatively small budget, but you can watch "Joe the Plumber" here:

Just who is Joe the Plumber?

Update, Thursday, 7:51 a.m. -- According to Associated Press, Joe the Plumber is "...Joe Wurzelbacher, an Ohio man looking to buy a plumbing business who came to symbolize the notion of 'spreading the wealth' in Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate."

Check out part of the Obama-Joe tax talk here:

Forget U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain. J the P (JTP) was the star of tonight's presidential debate. Both candidates debated him. Both men addressed him directly through the camera. Who is this new media star? Is he fielding dozens upon dozens of press calls? Is he the new Chauncey Gardener? I had to know. Here is what I found out:

From NBC's Mark Murray

McCain makes the first aggressive move of the evening, bringing up a conversation Obama had with an Ohio plumber. McCain and the right have seized onto this part of the conversation: "I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody."

But here's the entire context of the exchange, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones:

From two days ago, Obama canvassing in Holland, Ohio:
Then a big, bald man with a goatee asks if he believes in the American dream. He tells Obama he’s getting ready to buy a company that makes more than $250,000 a year. “Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn’t it?”

Obama tells him he’d get a 50% tax credit – a cut in taxes for health care. “if your revenue is above 250 – then from 250 down, your taxes are going to stay the same. It is true that from 250 up – from 250 – 300 or so, so for that additional amount, you’d go fro 36 to 39%, which is what it was under Bill Clinton. And the reason why we’re doing that is because 95% of small businesses make less than 250. So what I want to do is give them a tax cut. I want to give all these folks who are bus drivers, teachers, auto workers who make less, I want to give them a tax cut. And so what we’re doing is, we are saying that folks who make more than 250 that that marginal amount above 250 – they’re gonna be taxed at a 39 instead of a 36% rate.”

The man says he’s a hard working plumber for 15 years – why should he be taxed more?

Obama says, “over the last 15 years, when you weren’t making 250, you would have been given a tax cut from me, so you’d actually have more money, which means you would have saved more, which means you would have gotten to the point where you could build your small business quicker than under the current tax code. So there are two ways of looking at it – I mean one way of looking at it is, now that you’ve become more successful through hard work – you don’t want to be taxed as much.”

The man says, “Exactly.”

Obama contined, “But another way of looking at it is, 95% of folks who are making less than 250, they may be working hard too, but they’re being taxed at a higher rate than they would be under mine. So what I’m doing is, put yourself back 10 years ago when you were only making whatever. 60 or 70. Under my tax plan you would be keeping more of your paycheck, you’d be paying lower taxes, which means you would have saved down to the point where you (inaudible). Now look, nobody likes high taxes. Of course not. But what’s happened is is that we end up – we’ve cut taxes a lot for folks like me who make a lot more than 250. We haven’t given a break to folks who make less, and as a consequence, the average wage and income for ordinary folks, the vast majority of Americans, has actually gone down over the last 8 years. So all I want to do is – I’ve got a tax cut. The only thing that changes is I’m gonna cut taxes a little bit more for the folks who are most in need and for the 5% of the folks who are doing very well  - even though they’ve been working hard and I appreciate that – I just want to make sure they’re paying a little bit more in order to pay for those other tax cuts. Now, I respect the disagreement. I just want you to be clear – it’s not that I want to punish your success – I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you – that they’ve got a chance at success too.”

The man says it seems like Obama would be for a flat tax.

Obama says, “you know, I would be open to it except here’s the problem with a flat tax is that if you actually put a flat tax together, in order for it to work and replace all the rvenue that we’ve got, you’d probably end up having to make it like about a 40% sales tax. I mean that’s the value added, making it up. Now some people say 23 or 25, but in truth when you add up all the revenue that would need to be raised, you’d have to slap on a whole bunch of sales taxes on. And I do believe for folks like me who have worked hard, but frankly also been lucky, I don’t mind paying just a little bit more than the waitress that I just met over there who’s things are slow and she can barely make the rent. Because my attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody. If you’ve got a plumbing business, you’re gonna be better off if you’re gonna be better off if you’ve got a whole bunch of customers who can afford to hire you, and right now everybody’s so pinched that business is bad for everybody **** and I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody. **** But listen, I respect what you do and I respect your question, and even if I don’t get your vote, I’m still gonna be working hard on your behalf because small businesses are what creates jobs in this country and I want to encourage it.”

The crowd cheered and Obama added, “for small business people, I’m gonna eliminate the capital gains tax, so what it means is if your business succeeds and let’s say you take it from a $250,000 business to a $500,000 business, that capital gains that you get – we’re not gonna tax you on it because I want you to grow (inaudible). So you’re actually gonna get some, you may end up – I’d have to look your particular business, but you might end up paying lower taxes under my plan and my approach than under JSM’s (inaud). I couldn’t guarantee that, ‘cause I’d have to take a look at ---

The man says, “Oh yeah, I understand that.”

As Obama walks away he says, “I gotta get out of here. I’ve gotta go prepare for this debate, but that was pretty good practice right there!”