Immigration

Franken - The Minnesota State Canvassing Board confirmed today that Al Franken has won his Senate election, ending a weeks-long recount process that started with the Democratic challenger facing a roughly 215-vote deficit.

Black Swans - A great blog by David Rothkopf on Latin America and foreign policy.  Here, the term "Black Swan" means a recurring theme throughout history in which key events or discoveries of real significance forced a rethinking of the rules and standard approaches that had previously guided society.  And we definitely need to rethink our policies in Latin America.  Excerpt of the piece: 

The best place to begin looking at what might be unexpected is to identify
what most Washington types think is in store for us. As of right now, 2009 looks
like this: deeper, messier recession worldwide, the beginning of the U.S.
pullout from Iraq, worries about Pakistan and Iranian nukes, hopes that Obama
can restore U.S. standing. Oh, and recently a recognition that Israel-Palestine
will continue to be an open wound. But here's five black swans that could arrive and wreak unanticipated havoc: 

1. The failed state next door

At a meeting of leading diplomats from around the Americas I attended not too long ago, the subject that caused the greatest concern was the situation in Mexico. Organized crime has taken a dominant position in a number of provinces and the federal government is struggling to contain the growing security threat. The country is losing oil revenue due to plummeting prices and mismanagement of PEMEX, the national oil company. The Merida Initiative, Plan Colombia-lite for Mexico, has not made the progress some had hoped for and the result is a fragile situation. Add the possible consequences of a very tough 2009 economically and a match is tossed on tinder. In a world in which there is no such thing as foreign policy any more -- every key event has U.S. domestic consequences -- there is no better example than our neighbor. The symptoms of crisis will come streaming over our borders and border-state politics will make it a problem Obama cannot ignore. (Especially with a Homeland Security secretary who is a former border-state governor.) 

On yesterday's Meet the Press, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid discusses hopeful prospects for immigration reform in 2009:

MR. GREGORY: Let me ask you about politics.  This is what you told Roll Call two days after the election of Barack Obama.... "‘I think the country has moved to the center,'... ‘I think people want us to get things done.'" Let me test that proposition.  On immigration, do you have a deal between the president-elect and Senator McCain for immigration reform?...

...SEN. REID: "We need comprehensive immigration reform." That was a conversation I had with John McCain.  Yes, we need comprehensive immigration reform.  And what does that mean?  It means we have to make sure our borders are protected, our northern and southern borders.  We have to do something about the millions of people here who are undocumented.  We have to put them on, on a pathway to legalization.  Does that mean that they get to the head of the line?  Of course not.  They'd have penalties and fines and learn English and stay out of trouble.  We have to also do something on a guest worker program and we have to do something about the employer sanctions that works. John McCain believes that should happen.  I believe that should happen. That's...

MR. GREGORY: And he's discussed it with the president-elect?...

MR. GREGORY: McCain has?

SEN. REID: I don't know, but he's discussed it with me.

MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.  You think you've got a deal, a prospect of a deal.

SEN. REID: I have, I have John McCain's word that he's going to work real, real hard on immigration reform....

...SEN. REID: And I'll, and I'll work with him.

Gov. Bill Richardson Withdraws From Consideration as Commerce Secretary - This news is not only unfortunate for the President-elect and his team and for the country as a whole, it is bad news for immigration reform.  This Governor's support of reform and criticism of half-measures (such as "enforcement-only"), his legislative, executive, and international experience made him particularly qualified to put a great deal of weight behind comprehensive immigration reform (CIR) legislation in a time of economic crisis as Secretary of Commerce.  Luckily, we still have strong champions for CIR in the administration with Gov. Napolitano as DHS Secretary and Rep. Hilda Solis as Secretary of Labor.  The confluence of immigrants and labor is exactly what the current administration has not been able to get right.  What Ms. Solis and the President-elect seem to understand is that by upholding workers' rights, even for the undocumented, you uphold wage and labor rights for all working Americans.  It is indespensable that Barack Obama name a new nominee for Secretary of Commerce that posseses the same passion and ability of Gov. Richardson to strengthen coalitions in favor of CIR in order to pass CIR in 2009.

An article in The Hill comments on what will likely be early tests on immigration for Barack Obama upon assuming the Presidency, and Spanish-language media demonstrates that the Hispanic community has not forgotten Obama's commitments in this area.  Univision's Sunday morning program, Al Punto, aired an "end of the year" summary that featured five stories - four of the five had an immigration focus.  Next to job creation, immigration reform is the top issue on the minds of Latinos for 2009.  The analysts on Al Punto highlighted that as the economy improves, there will be a need to address the economic demand for workers so that businesses can meet their needs legally, and to ensure labor and wage standards for all workers.

The Hispanic community won't forget the promise of immigration reform - This Sunday, Al Punto had a feature on immigration reform in 2009 and re-played an interview with Barack Obama from May 28, 2008.  When asked whether he was committed to passing immigration reform "in his first year," he replied, "yes, in my first year."  Frank Sharry appeared on this segment commenting on the current climate of fear among immigrant communities.  

President-elect Obama on Raids - During the same interview that took place in May and was replayed this Sunday, Obama was asked how he would handle raids.  He responded that he considered raids a "good public relations move," to make it seem like the government is doing something, but they don't solve the problem in the long-term.  He recognized the terror that affects communities as something to be given due consideration, "I don't think it is the American way to capture a mother and separate her from her child," and not think of the consequences.  Clearly raids are a part of the general review the President-elect will undertake.  Rather than demand or expect him to issue an order "halting raids," I think we can expect Obama to shift the focus of enforcement to going after unscrupulous employers, criminal aliens, and human traffickers.

How to convince Barack Obama that reform is needed this year? - This question was posed on the Sunday morning Spanish-language show.  I would posit that the bigger question is how to make sure we educate legislators in both chambers on this issue.  The bottom line is that American voters voted for Obama and for a large number of Democratic legislators as a repudiation of the inaction of the past eight years.  CIR provides the opportunity to demonstrate a will to govern, to take action and solve problems - particularly at a time of economic crisis.  The economy and immigration go hand in hand.  Immigration is a national security issue, it is an economic issue with economic roots and consequences.  By ignoring the undocumented and those who are wanted as workers, you encourage the exploitation that erodes working conditions and job security everywhere.  In a time of economic crisis, the stability and dignity of the work force are especially vital.  This is also why CIR must not be limited to addressing the legalization of the undocumented - CIR must address issues of future flow and it must revamp the entire visa system.  The existing visa system is outdated, unfair, and clearly unrealistic given that most of the undocumented came into the country legally and overstayed their visas.  With the amount of work immigration reform will take, it is vital that it is truly "comprehensive." 

Re: A long road back for the GOP - An interesting article in the CQ, "The Republican Search for Self Better Find Something Quickly," echoes what NDN has been writing about in Simon's post on their "long road back" and my post on how the current GOP is so out of touch - intentionally or not - with 21st century America.  John Bicknell writes: "Republicans are going to have to figure out who they are, and how that identity is relevant to modern America. And they are going to have to do it in less than two years. Otherwise, they could well find themselves on their way to another 40 years in the wilderness." For Democrats, CIR represents a great deal of opportunities to prove their ability to govern, and for Republicans, passing CIR can be the first step out of the wilderness.  

More Examples of our Broken Immigration System:  All of which exacerbate undocumented migration - 1) Marriage Fraud - CQ covers a CIS study as part of a larger piece on marriage fraud and immigration.  While CIS is a known hate group as identified by the Southern Poverty Law Center, and even though we have no factual basis with which to accept their data, even one fraudulent marriage is one too many, and it demonstrates the insufficient legal means for immigration in our laws.  

"The real problem with marriage and immigration law and policy is how the government disrespects the marriages of U.S. citizens and legal immigrants who obey the rules," Paul Donnelly, spokesman for American Families United, which works to reunite Americans' foreign spouses and children, said in an interview....Legal permanent residents have to wait almost five years - nearly eight years for Mexicans - to bring a foreign-born spouse or child into the United States. Americans who marry foreigners that have overstayed prior visas or have been discovered in the country illegally cannot bring that spouse or child into the country for at least three years, with a maximum 10-year term of inadmissibility if the visa overstay is greater than one year or the foreigner is deported.

2) Immigrants priced out of legal status - Only about half of all Central American immigrants eligible for a renewal of their temporary protected status actually filed for their renewals.  Many of these immigrants could not afford the filing fees due to having been laid off or having their number of work hours cut in this time of economic recession.  

3) The Face of Slavery - As long as there are insufficient legal channels for immigrants to come into the country, and as long as those existing channels remain slow and bureaucratic, we will continue to see crimes against humanity like those shown in this New York Times feature - examples of human trafficking and slavery into which women and children fall as they try to achieve the American dream.

The State of Courts - Chief Justice Roberts provided his annual report on the state of the federal courts, which showed bankruptcy filings rose by 30%, filings concerning criminal charges in immigration cases jumped by 27% (the cases are concentrated in the Southwest).  "Criminal charges" could mean criminal activity, or they could mean cases like the one that occurred in Iowa, where many undocumenteds with no IDs or social security numbers unkowingly signed guilty pleas for identity theft.  In the meantime, prosecution of sex offense cases grew by only 9%, and the number of drug cases actually dropped by 7%.  Chief Justice Roberts explained, "Those reductions occurred when investigative agencies shifted their focus from drugs to terrorism and sex offenses." 

Hate Crimes - Two Hispanic youths assaulted a 28 year-old Hispanic woman in San Francisco.  The woman is a lesbian who lived with her partner near the boys, the crime has been qualified as a hate crime.  This horrific crime is made more appalling by the fact that it occurs at a time when Hispanics are crying out in protest against the hate crimes that resulted in the murders of several Latino immigrants and as communities are fighting for their right to be free of fear of having hate crimes perpetrated.  How can we demand certain behavior of other communities if we don't begin with our own? 

Speaking of Border Security - A couple, their children, and family of 7 were killed en route from Dallas, TX to Mexico.  As they were about to cross the border in Texas, they drove on a bridge half of which had collapsed during rain storms.  There were no road blocks, not a single sign warning of the end of the bridge, so as the family drove during the night they fell over the edge of the bridge into a river, only one grandmother survived.

Al Franken to the Senate - It is expected that Al Franken will be declared the winner today in his race against Norm Coleman.  This is good news for immigration reform, click here to see Sen.-elect Franken's position on CIR. UPDATE:  Franken declared winner.   

Lots of press this week relating to the themes of NDN's event last week, "A New Coalition and a New Map." In addition to event write-ups in the DC Examiner and Blue Commonwealth, articles in the Washington Times and the Huffington Post highlighted our arguments about immigration and the Latino vote. From the Huffington Post piece by Sam Stein:

...The leading Republican presidential candidates this cycle famously shunned an African-American themed debate, much to the chagrin of moderates like Jack Kemp, who worried that the party had become too country club. The handling of immigration reform and other related issues, meanwhile, has led students of the political process -- like NDN Simon's Rosenberg -- to seriously consider the idea that Democrats will have a generational lock on the growing minority vote.

On the economic front, Rob Shapiro is quoted in Grist on the prospects of a carbon tax, and in the San Francisco Chronicle on the Bush bailout. From the Chronicle:

Paulson has run through $350 billion veering from one strategy to another. The money may indeed have prevented a banking collapse, but it has not unglued credit markets as much as expected. His rescue of banking giant Citigroup came under fire for its lack of transparency, generous terms and taxpayer assumption of close to $300 billion in debt.

"The value of these measures thus far has been to stave off a total meltdown, which we flirted with," said Robert Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs in the Clinton administration and now head of Democratic think tank and advocacy group NDN's globalization initiative. Shapiro argued, however, as do many Democrats, that Paulson has failed to tackle the underlying problem of housing foreclosures that is causing banks to rein in lending.

Finally, Simon was quoted in the Financial Times and Brand Republic about how President-elect obama will continue to use his network of supporters for advocacy:

Will US president-elect Barack Obama live up to the marketing promise of his election victory and use direct channels to make government more transparent and interactive? "There has been an expectation created," concedes one person who has been advising the Obama team on its use of the internet, the Financial Times reports. Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a progressive think-tank, predicts that the internet will become a central medium for Obama to communicate with voters and test policy ideas. "It allows him to speak more directly to his people than ever before," he says.

How to make use of the campaign database containing 13 million email addresses, including details of 3 million donors - is the immediate question for the Obama camp. Rosenberg says the new president is likely to use it as an "advocacy network" to further his policies: "He will call on the American people to help him pass his agenda." Financial Times, 8 December 2008

The Minnesota race continues, but don't hold your breath - Democratic candidate Al Franken got a boost on Friday in his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman.  On Friday, the state's election oversight board recommended that each of the state's 87 counties review absentee ballots initially rejected as invalid, and submit amended vote tallies that include any ballots found to be wrongly rejected.  The thing is, the board does not have the authority to require counties to conduct such a review, so it would be up to the candidates to issue legal challenges to force the issue should any county decline to re-examine the legitimacy of the disputed ballots.  The Secretary of State projects that more than 1,500 absentee ballots could be found to have been improperly turned away, and if this turns out to be the case,  Al Franken would have to win a relatively small plurality of those ballots to overcome the razor-thin lead held by Coleman following a hand recount of votes cast in the Senate race.

Judiciary Loses Its Lion - In case you missed it, Sen. Ted Kennedy stepped down from his post on the Committee on the Judiciary.  It will be interesting to see who will start to throw their hat in the ring to succeed Sen. Kennedy, and whether that person can - and will - follow Sen. Kennedy's example in the area of immigration reform. 

Tough Week for DHS:   1) DHS Programs caught midstream in the transition - Among them, the controversial SBInet border security system, construction of it is scheduled to begin in March 2009 in Arizona.  After being known in Congress for cost overruns, malfunctions, gaps in management, and miscommunication with Congress, Alice Lipowicz reports on the challenges ahead for SBInet advocates. 
2) A perfect example of the broken immigration system:  the cleaning service used by DHS Secretary Chertoff to clean his house had undocumented immigrants working there.  What better example of how broken our immigration system really is, and the urgent need to fix it.  At least the Secretary didn't "knowingly" hire "illegals," as did  Lorraine Henderson, an employee of Customs and Border Protection (emphasis added) - Ms. Henderson reportedly was recorded warning her cleaning lady to be "careful" to not get caught.  Who said DHS didn't care?  A former FEMA employee who was sentenced earlier this year for identity theft, with which he funded shopping sprees, has been handed five plus years in federal prison. 
3) Detention center in Rhode Island will get no more detainees, pending an inquiry into the treatment, and subsequent death, of a Chinese engineer in that detention center. 
4) A judge's denial of DHS's request for a mid-January decision in the case involving DHS's rule pertaining to no-match letters means that President-elect Obama inherits the prolongued legal dispute over the current administration's push to pressure employers to fire undocumented workers.  It is highly unlikely that an Obama administration would pursue the current flawed DHS rule.  In his platform, Pres-elect Obama has proposed an effective verification system as a part of comprehensive reform.
5) TWIC Delays Upset Workers - U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and their contractor, Lockheed Martin, had a great many truckers and port workers upset at them as the workers' new biometric Transportation Worker Identification Cards - which they must possess by Dec. 30 in order to be able to work - were delayed.  Some workers in Baltimore reported to TSA on several occasions to pick up their TWIC cards and were turned away due to the volume of people ahead of them.
6) A GAO report released this week on the planning and execution improvements needed for the US-VISIT program.    

What Immigration Reform does NOT look like - This week President Bush announced regulatory changes to the H-2A agricultural guestworker program that remove important protections for workers and make it easier for employers to bring in foreign workers.  Once again, this is amnesty for unscrupulous employers, not reform.  

Utah Guest worker program to be implemented - The state legislation, SB81 has received ample criticism, and could very well face challenges in the coming weeks and months, prior to its implementation.  

Henryk Kowalczyk's Huffington Post must-read post on why the Immigration debate is about so much more than just immigration.   

Census Updated American Community Survey - The U.S. Census released its 2008 community survey this week, and reiterates the trend mentioned before: immigrants and minorities are moving away from cities and becoming a larger part of the population in suburbs, etc. 

New Tools in Immigration, too - the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and the New York University School of Law (NYU) launched a project called "State Responses to Immigration" as a joint effort to provide a free, searchable data tool designed to generate information on all immigration-related bills at the state and local level across the nation.

Hate Crimes - Sadly, another Ecuadorian man was killed in New York by a group of men who viciously attacked him.  Jose Sucuzhanay's homicide is under investigation, and it is helping gather civil rights leaders from accross the country to address the spike in hate crimes against Latinos.  Mexicans at the U.S.-Mexico border also report an increase in hate crimes and agression based on nationality and ethnicity.  We see an important social turning point, immigrants - Hispanic ones in particular - fight back against discrimination.  In Tennessee, legal immigrants who had their documents unlawfully taken from them are filing suit.

Interesting article in the Arizona Daily Star on the border fence.  

New IPC Report - The Immigration Policy Center has compiled a major report on minority and New American voter data, as well as motivating issues in the 2008 election cycle.  The report also explores the outlook for immigration reform.

Employers need education on the effects of immigration, too - According to the latest survey released by Manpower, a private Human Resurces firm, 62% of the 4,804 employers in Mexico who were surveyed described themselves as not particularly concerned with the impact of emigration on the Mexican labor market, the remaining 38% does believe that emigration can have a harmful effect on the Mexican economy and cause a potential "brain drain," as well.  An estimated 8 million 5 hundred thousand Mexicans work outside of Mexico.

About 150,000 immigrants from Michoacan are estimated to return to this Mexican state for the Holidays, although there are no estimates as to how many might remain in Mexico.   It is estimated that immigrants going to Mexico for the Holidays will inject about $5 billion into the Mexican economy.

Today, NDN held an event with NDN President Simon Rosenberg, Vice President of NDN Hispanic Programs Andres Ramirez, and new NDN Fellow Morley Winograd to discuss the new 21st century coalition and Electoral College map that President-elect Obama used to win, and the implications for the future of American politics. In particular, the presentations focused on the rise of Millennials and Hispanics and the impact of these ascendant demographic groups.

In his presentation (PowerPoint available in PDF format here), Morley explained why he believes we are at the start of a new cycle of American politics, with a new "civic" generation entering public life for the first time since the 1930s. He argued that young voters' overwhelming support for President-elect Obama was not a flash in the pan, but rather an indication of the generation's political and social attitudes and beliefs -- attidutes and beliefs that, among other things, make them much more likely to self-identify as Democrats than Republicans. 

Andres then gave an excellent presentation (PDF available here) on the growing clout of Latino voters. Like Millennials, Hispanics significantly increased their turnout this election cycle, and voted in huge margins for President-elect Obama. Andres showed how the Latino vote was the decisive factor in four key swing states, and argued that Latinos are also poised to make other states (even Texas!) competetive in future elections. 

Finally, Simon put this all in a larger context, explaining how these developments, culminating in this truly historic election, mark the end of the Southern Strategy as a way to win Presidential elections.   

Gov. Bill Richardson made a quick personal trip to Mexico this weekend.  The Commerce Secretary nominee attended a regular meeting at the Universidad de las Américas, Puebla (UDLA)- my alma mater - in his capacity as a member of UDLA's Corporate Advisory Board.  The Governor met with the current President of the UDLA, former Mexican Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luis Ernesto Derbez, as well as a group of prominent executives who serve as advisors to the UDLA.  During the meeting, Gov. Richardson would not answer specific questions with respect to President-elect Obama's plans for NAFTA or any other area of trade or foreign policy, other than to say that the President-elect is very conscious of the importance of the U.S. relationship with Mexico and with Hispanics in general.  Gov. Richardson has not only been a prominent advocate for a more engaged relationship with Latin America, he's been a grassroots activist as well: his history with the UDLA began when he studied abroad there, becoming an alum.  Years later, as a U.S. Congressman, he worked to expand exchanges between students in the U.S. and the UDLA to create a network that would "build better bridges of understanding" between the future generations of the two countries.  More recently, Gov. Richardson was the commencement speaker for the 2003 graduating class, at which time he received an Honoris Causa Doctorate degree from the UDLA.  Gov. Richardson also has a long history working with NDN, speaking about the kind of new partnership that should be forged with Latin America.

"Prison" for immigrants? - A note in Dubois, Pennsylvania's Courier Express discusses expansion plans for a privately run "federal prison for illegal immigrants." According to the story, the prison is under contract with the Federal Bureau of Prisons. My first question is: why are any immigrants going to prisons as opposed to detention centers? Or is this a case of criminals who are serving sentences and are found to be in the country illegally? I feel like important details were left out of the story, but if non-criminal aliens are somehow being held in prisons then we have a major issue.

The Impact of the 2008 Elections on Immigration, continued: 1. "Firewall" wins -Saxby Chambliss (R) won the runoff election in Georgia against Jim Martin (D) for the Senate. The runoff was widely covered by Time and Chambliss was even on Halperin's "Five Most Important People in American Politics Right Now Who Aren't Barack Obama." In addition to the political considerations, a win by Jim Martin would have meant a key vote in the Senate for immigration reform. Now Chambliss and the Republican party are touting this "big win."  This seat would have meant a huge win for Democrats, but it's important that Democrats put up such a fight in Georgia.  Vehemently anti-immigrant and anti-reform Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin couldn't have more different views on immigration and in their approach to governing - Chambliss has been politicking, selling himself as a "firewall to prevent Democratic excess," while Jim Martin had presented himself as the man who would provide a "bridge" to the change promised by President-elect Barack Obama, and that change includes immigration reform.

2. Reality sets in, in VA - Per a piece by Anita Kumar in the Washington Post, the Virginia Panel on Immigration is changing its ways, from the hard-line stance to more productive and realistic proposals. After seeing the hard-line anti-immigrant Republican candidates lose congressional elections all over the state, the members of this commission have apparently realized that the anti-immigrant positions they formerly took to score what they considered to be political points just don't work. The panel has shifted its focus from fighting illegal immigration to working with the ever-growing population of immigrants. Delegate Todd Gilbert (R-Shenandoah), who served on the commission and is staunchly anti-illegal immigration, noted "I can't totally disagree that some people are leery of the issue, because maybe it wasn't the wedge issue that some thought it would be," Gilbert said. The new recommendations provided by the panel to Gov. Tim Kaine include shortening the Medicaid residency requirements for certain qualified immigrants, offering in-state tuition to immigrants who meet specific criteria and creating an immigration assistance office. The commission also proposed increasing the number of English classes and creating a plan to address the needs of foreign-born residents and urged the federal government to compile more complete immigration statistics, increase the number of visas for foreign workers and pass comprehensive immigration legislation.

A Post op-ed also discusses the significance of this change in tone in Virginia in more detail: "....reform is as needed as ever. Only the federal government can get the job done, and the political climate may be more favorable than last time around." Of the 12 million illegal immigrants estimated to be in the United States, 250,000 to 300,000 live in Virginia, according to the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington. The U.S. Census Bureau says an additional 440,000 people in Virginia are not U.S. citizens but are in the state legally.

3. More Immigration Losers - The Wall Street Journal remarks: the GOP hardliners have to face the reality that immigration reform is not unpopular. This Opinion piece notes Virgil Goode's loss to Tom Perreillo - which became official this week. For the second straight election, incumbent Republicans who attempted to turn illegal immigration into a wedge issue lost their election. Anti-immigration hardliners Randy Graf, John Hostettler and J.D. Hayworth were among the Republicans who lost in 2006. In addition to Goode, joining them this year were GOP Representatives Thelma Drake (Virginia), Tom Feeney (Florida), Ric Keller (Florida)and Robin Hayes (North Carolina) - all Members of a House anti-immigration caucus that focuses on demonizing the undocumented and advocating for things like mass deportation and denying citizenship to U.S. born children of undocumented persons.

4. GOP Immigration Strategy Goes Down in Flames - El Paso newspaper citing the most recent poll conducted by America's Voice and Lake Research.

5. Jeb Bush Readies to Woo Hispanics- In an interview, most importantly, Bush said his party must embrace the nation's changing demographics:

"We can't ignore large segments of our population and expect to win," Bush said. "We can't be the ‘old white-guy' party. It's just not going to work, the demographics go against us in that regard...". "Among Hispanic voters, I think we need to change the tone of the conversation as it relates to immigration. In Florida, we've not participated much in the chest pounding and the yelling and the screaming. I mean, it just drives me nuts when there are substantive policy differences that we can show mutual respect on, but the tone needs to change. And I think we need to recruit more candidates who share our values in the Hispanic community. In Florida we've done that."

This provides a window into the strategy Jeb will use if he runs for Senate.

Intelligence Report: Anti-immigration Leader at Heart of White Nationalist Scene for Decades - This report just released by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) details more precisely what SPLC has been reporting for some time: John Tanton, the architect of the modern anti-immigration movement and founder of the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) has been at the heart of the white nationalist scene for decades, working with racist intellectuals, Klan lawyers and even Holocaust deniers.  Speaking of which, the "think tank" of the hate network funded by Mr. Tanton, Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) appears in this article on alleged "Green Card Marriage Fraud." While there is little data to substantiate the alleged incidence of fraud in marriages between one U.S. citizen and one non-citizen, even one case of fraud is unfortunate. In this regard, we thank CIS for furthering our argument for CIR - so long as the immigration system is broken and so long as there are insufficient legal channels for those currently living in the United States, or those wanting to come here, people will continue to find ways outside of the system to come here. So let's get a law passed that provides for a realistic number of visas, a speedier green-card process through employment and family, and additional realistic legal channels for permanent residence.

Outlook on Napolitano- A New York Times Editorial on the role Gov. Napolitano could play in achieving Comprehensive Immigration Reform as DHS Secretary. This op-ed makes many of the arguments NDN has posited on the inadequacy of "enforcement-only", and makes a compelling argument for the urgency of CIR:

How badly have [enforcement-only] efforts failed? Since Congress passed the Secure Fence Act of 2006, instead of comprehensive reform, 32 tunnels have been discovered under Arizona's border with Mexico, according to research by The Arizona Republic's Sean Holstege. That's more than all tunnels previously found in Arizona. Drug cartels finance tunnels, but transporting people into the country illegally has become so lucrative that drug smugglers increasingly are mixing their cargo. If the U.S. had a process to legally bring in needed foreign workers and legalize the current undocumented population, the reduction in the Border Patrol's workload would allow border law enforcement to focus on drug smuggling. There's reason to hope the new Congress will act on that simple reality.

The Immigration Crystal Ball - NPR is doing a great job focusing on border and immigration issues, Jennifer Ludden explores how enforcement priorities may change under President Obama and why "Immigration Experts Expect Fewer Workplace Raids." There's also a great deal of debate over whether immigration reform will happen, and when: 1) an interesting blog by Roberto Lovato, 2) A Dallas Morning News post by William McKenzie posits "Why Immigration May Go Forward," while a John Riley article in Dallas Morning News argues that immigration reform "Takes backseat to the economy."

No one really knows, all we can do is educate and advocate. The bottom line is that President-Elect Obama has demonstrated a commitment to immigration reform - he has spoken about this issue as a priority, and here's how he'll go about it.

The Economy and Immigration - And why should immigration and the economy be considered separate priorities, exclusive of each other? At NDN we've discussed why there is opportunity for immigration reform to form part of a new plan for the economy. In a post this week, Jeff Cornwall of Belmont University also posits that immigration may be part of the answer to give the economy an entrepreneurial boost:

Most studies find that immigrants are more likely to be entrepreneurs or self-employed than the population as a whole. The Philadelphia Business Journal reports on yet another study that adds more support....Current policy makes it difficult for entrepreneurs to enter the U.S. legally.

In a different post, Jaya Ramji-Nogales writes about one of the effects of the economic downturn on immigrants:

The "Lou Dobbs" effect; as xenophobic vitriol and resulting anti-immigrant sentiment has increased, so has violence against immigrants or those who appear to be immigrants. Add that to an economy in free-fall, and the result may be highly combustible.

Number of Undocumented Immigrants Continues to Fall - According the Center for International Trade of University of Texas at San Antonio, 1.3 million, or 11% of undocumented immigrants have returned to their home country this year. A right wing website similarly reports a dramatic decline, the difference is in the causes to which the decline is attributed. The UT study correctly attributes the decline to the economic crisis and a decrease in the supply of jobs, combined with increased raids and workplace enforcement. The nativist website draws a very incorrect and very dangerous conclusion: that "illegal immigrants" started heading home "immediately" after the failed attempt at CIR in the Senate in Summer of 2007, which is completely false. The first evidence of undocumenteds leaving began earlier this year, during late summer and Fall of 2008, in response to the economic crisis, as opposed to a bill in Congress. As we move forward, and as President Obama works with Congress to pass immigration reform, we have to be very careful to fight back against that 10% of people in the U.S. who will be spreading misinformation such as this.

Immigration Changing Course, A Story that Needs Telling - The Miami Herald has begun a series on the course of immigration, "It's an important story for a country built on immigration and yet often ambivalent about its impacts. Over a generation, new arrivals from Mexico, the Caribbean and throughout Latin America have reshaped this country. Nowhere is that more the case than in South Florida, where millions of legal immigrants and nearly one tenth of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States have settled."

Hate Crimes Changing Political Climate - On Tuesday, activists called for investigation of Suffolk hate crime statistics. This is the beginning of what we hope to be an ongoing PR campaign to encourage victims to report hate crimes, and to encourage law enforcement to crack down on such criminal activity.

El Universal reports an increase in remittances to Mexico over the last month, with immigrants taking advantage of the recent devaluation of the peso. Remittances rose 13% compared to October of 2007, coming to a total of about $2.4 billion. This is the first rise in remittances after 14 months of a consecutive decline. Even though they rose from last October, remittances are still less than they were in January of this year. And the AP reports on Philadephia's growing immigrant community.

In an interview with ABC News, looking back on his presidency, George W. Bush said that one of his biggest disappointments was the failure to pass a comprehensive bill on immigration reform, and regrets the tone taken by many in his party on this issue:

"I firmly believe that the immigration debate really didn't show the
true nature of America as a welcoming society," he said. "I fully
understand we need to enforce law and enforce borders. But the debate
took on a tone that undermined the true greatness of America, which is
that we welcome people who want to work hard and support their
families."

It was a banner week for NDN fellows Morley Winograd and Mike Hais: their book, Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube & the Future of American Politics, was named one of the top 10 books of 2008 by New York Times' Michiko Kakutani. From the Times feature:

In what turns out to have been a highly prescient book, the two authors predicted that 2008 would be a “change” election, informed by new technology and by the outlook of a new generation of millennial voters, who tend to be more inclusive, optimistic and tech-savvy than their elders.

Their work on Millennials was also featured in MarketWatch, the Toledo Blade, and the National Journal. The National Journal piece, "Where are the New Voters?", also features NDN's work on Hispanic issues:

"It's another indication that America went through a civic realignment in 2008," said Morley Winograd, a fellow with the progressive think tank and activist group NDN, and co-author of Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube and the Future of American Politics. Hispanic voters, too, have swung decisively to Democrats, NDN experts note, and increased their share of the electorate by 62 percent in Colorado, 50 percent in Nevada, and 28 percent in New Mexico.

Michael's recent essay, "Building the Electron Superhighway," was featured in the Huffington Post and Grist.

Rob was quoted in Forbes on President-elect Obama's economic team:

Rob Shapiro, an economist who was a top official in Clinton's Commerce Department, said Obama's selection of Geithner and Summers, as well as his wooing of Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state, reflect Obama's interest in attracting expertise and people of strong will.

"It tells you that not only does President-elect Obama have respect for expertise, but that he is very comfortable in an administration with very major figures," said Shapiro, now an official with NDN, a think tank formerly known as the New Democratic Network.

Rob also was featured in the Huffington Post, Carbon Tax Center, and Computer Weekly.

Today's Post has an excellent analysis of Virginia's changing electoral landscape, detailing Democratic gains with Hispanics, African-Americans, young people and upper income and more educated voters.  The story of what happened in Virginia in 2008 mirrors what happened across the nation, and makes very clear the national GOP's problems are structural as well as temporal - they simply are not building a Party and a Coalition suited to the demographic realities of 21st century America.  

An excerpt:

The party's gains rest heavily upon the state's changing demographics and were amplified this year by deep enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential and senatorial candidates, coupled with a broadly successful turnout operation.

In Northern Virginia's outer suburbs, a growing number of nonwhite residents, particularly Hispanics, are diminishing what had long been a big source of votes for Republican candidates. Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford counties and Manassas and Manassas Park have all experienced double-digit increases in the percentage of nonwhite residents since 2000. And in each of those locations, Democrats' share of the vote increased proportionally.

The nonwhite population of Prince William, for example, has grown by 13 percentage points since 2000. President-elect Barack Obama carried the county with almost 58 percent of the vote -- 13 points better than former vice president Al Gore did in the 2000 presidential race.

Loudoun experienced a 12-point gain in the minority population since 2000, and Obama did 13 percentage points better than Gore did in 2000. Obama did 10 points better than Gore in Stafford, which saw a 10 percent increase in the minority population since 2000.

This shift, matched with historical Democratic strength in the inner suburbs, makes Northern Virginia a huge source of votes for Democrats. The region's size, compared with the rest of the state, threatens Republicans' ability to win statewide if Democrats can continue to get their voters to the poll, demographers and political scientists suggest.

"The transformation in Northern Virginia has been rapid and dramatic, and Obama came out of Northern Virginia with a margin of [213,000] votes, and that is very hard to overcome," said Ken Billingsley, director of demographics and information for the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. "In Prince William, the change has already occurred, and I am not the least bit surprised that Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg are moving in that direction."

.....

According to exit polls, Hispanics made up 5 percent of the statewide electorate this year, almost matching their overall share of the population. Hispanics in Virginia favored Obama over Arizona Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee, by an almost 2 to 1 margin. If Republicans hope to recover from their losses in time for the 2009 races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the House of Delegates, their candidates will have to find a way to overwhelmingly win the white vote and make inroads with blacks and Hispanics.

"I, as a Southerner, understand that for the Republican Party to win presidential elections in the future we can no longer be the party of the deep South and Prairie Midwest," said Trey Walker, a South Carolina native who oversaw McCain's Virginia campaign. "If we don't start appealing to [minorities], we are going to continue to lose." (bold added for emphasis). 

Whether the Republican Party can start to speak effectively to the multi-racial America of the 21st century will be one of the most important questions in American politics in the coming years.  I think this job will be much harder than many understand for the foundation of the modern GOP - and the key to their success in recent decades - has been the exploitation of racial grievence.   Willie Horton, welfare queens, tax and spend, deporting undocumenteds - it has all been about exploiting white fears of the racial other in American life.  As I wrote earlier this year in an essay, On Obama, Race and the End of the Southern Strategy, demographic changes in America were making this type of politics a 20th anachronism whether Barack Obama became President or not.  With him as leader, there will also now be a moral challenge to this core play in the GOP playbook - for how will this society, this culture, allow the dog-whistle, wink and nod racial politics of the Southern Strategy era with a bi-racial man as President?  

While you will hear many Republicans echo Mr. Walker above, and call for their Party to get right with America's emerging demographic realities, I don't know if they understand how fundamental a rethink this is going to require.  Just three years ago the GOP House passed a bill calling for the arrest and deportation of 5 percent of the American work force - 10-12 million people, 10-12 million largely Hispanic people.  How they move from this politics of Nixon to a politics more fitting of Lincoln is going to be a transformation remarkable to behold - and almost unimaginable today.