Immigration

The op-ed in today's New York Times written by Secretary Gates and the Columbian Minister of Defense, Juan Manuel Santos, reflects the spirit of shared responsibility and mutual respect that has led to dramatic progress in improving security in Colombia.  The two leaders met today to discuss the U.S.-Colombia security relationship - just one day after NDN hosted Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco at a Latin American Policy Initiative to hear her perspective on the historic liberation of several hostages held by the FARC, Colombia's growing economy, and the proposed CTPA. 

It's important that the administration take stock of the fact that Colombia's gains are America's gains.  During her presentation, the Ambassador pointed out that over the last 10 years Colombia has been on a path to eradicate drug production, which - in combination with economic and legal reforms - has led Colombia out of a "vicious cycle" of drugs, insecurity, and poverty, into a "virtuous cycle" of security, investment, and economic growth.  The remarkable transformation in Colombia's security situation is largely the result of a partnership between the U.S. and Colombia.  The U.S. understands the benefits to be gained from having a strong, prosperous, and secure ally in Colombia, and has thus committed resources to help consolidate Colombia's hard-won freedom from violence and its economic prosperity.  One can only hope that the next administration will remain invested in the security and prosperity of the Latin American region, continuing the partnership with Colombia and extending similar commitments in the rest of the region - recognizing that any instability in the region has repercussions in the U.S., and by the same token, the gains of its neighbors are the gains of the U.S.  

NDN will host the next in its series of Latin American Policy Initiative forums tomorrow, Tuesday, July 22, at 9:30 a.m. The guest for tomorrow's forum is the Honorable Carolina Barco, Colombian Ambassador to the United States, who will talk about issues of importance to Colombia. A 45-minute panel will be followed by a 30-minute Q&A session.

Tomorrow's policy forum follows this weekend's mass protests against kidnappings by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the recent dramatic rescue of several of those hostages, and will serve as an opportunity to speak to the Ambassador prior to President Bush's remarks in honor of Colombian Independence Day, scheduled for tomorrow afternoon at the White House.

LAPI Forum with Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco
Tuesday, July 22
9:30 a.m.-11 a.m.
Reserve Officers
Association Building
5th Floor
One Constitution Ave., NE
Washington,DC

For years, NDN has pointed out that the rapid growth of the Hispanic community is one of the great American demographic stories of the 21st century.  In Hispanics Rising 2, our analysis explains how the Hispanic community is more central to American politics than ever before - we got the debate going.  We weighed in on this national development at a time when there was little or no debate about the influence of the Latino vote.  Our findings, which initially constituted a nuanced approach to Hispanics and this election, have become conventional wisdom.  It's interesting to see the change from a piece like the one written by Marcela Sanchez of the Washington Post about a month ago (and NDN's response), which focused on Barack Obama's "Latino problem" to her piece from Friday, "Latino Woes Curtail McCain's Wooing".  For more details on how NDN has influenced the debate, the following is a list of media citing Simon and Andres on this topic from the publication of Hispanics Rising 2 in May, to Andres's presentation at NCLR's Conference in San Diego last week:

Latino turnout could hold key to White House - San Francisco Chronicle, by Tyche Hendricks, May 21, 2008

Obama closes in on Democratic nomination - Xinhua General News Service, by Yang Qingchuan, May 21, 2008.

Obama looks west in electoral map play - Politico,  by Carrie Budoff Brown, May 27, 2008

Favorece voto latino a demócratas por tema de inmigración en EU - El Financiero, May 28, 2008

Obama woos key states with accent on Spanish - Financial Times, By Andrew Ward in Reno, Nevada, and Edward Luce in Washington, May 29, 2008

Group predicts record Hispanic turnout in next presidential election - Mashall News Messenger, by Bob Deans, May 29, 2008

Democratic Group Says Hispanic Voters Run to Democratic Party - Kansas City Infozine, by Christian A. Cheairs, May 29, 2008

Election 2008: Latino vote could be pivotal in Western states - San Jose Mercury News, By Frank Davies, May 29, 2008

El voto latino aumenta y se vuelve más demócrata - La Opinion, Pilar Marrero, May 29, 2008

Obama va por el voto hispano - CNN Espanol, May 29, 2008

Obama's E Pluribus Challenge - Rolling Stone, June 04, 2008

Obama leads in battle for Latino vote - Los Angeles Times, by Reed Johnson, June 06, 2008

Obama en busca del voto latino - La Opinion, by Pilar Marrero, June 06, 2008

Hispanics will be Obama's big challenge - Miami Herald, by Andres Oppenheimer, June 08, 2008

Spanish-language media key to victory with Latinos - Politico, by Gebe Martinez, June 10, 2008

El voto latino será crucial en 2008 - Univision, June 13, 2008

Shift on immigration could cost McCain - St. Petersburg Times, by Alex Leary and Wes Allison, June 21, 2008

The swing states of 2008 - Salon.com, by Thomas F. Schaller, June 24, 2008

Obama, McCain make strong bid for Latino votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, June 26, 2008

McCain, Obama battle for Hispanic votes - The Hill, by Roxana Tiron, June 28, 2008

Swinging for Latinos - New Mexico Independent, by Marjorie Childress, July 1, 2008

Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states - Associated Press, by Stephen Ohlemacher, July 2, 2008

McCain revs efforts to woo Hispanic voters - The Arizona Republic, by Dan Nowicki, July 10, 2008

POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election - North County Times, CA, by Edward Sifuentes, Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama prepara un "llamado a las trincheras" durante un foro hispano - EFE News Service, Andres's interview with Maria Pena, July 13, 2008.

NPR: 'Bush Hispanics' Say Goodbye To GOP, by Jennifer Ludden, July 13, 2008

McCain woos Latinos, touts immigration votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, July 15, 2008

Las Vegas, NV - Throughout the Primary elections, several political pundits and news media reported on what they considered was a problem for US Senator Barack Obama. The common perception was that since US Senator Hillary Clinton was outperforming Senator Obama among Hispanic voters by more than 2:1, then this must be a problem for Senator Obama. In addition, they generated much commentary around the assumption that there must be racial tensions among Hispanic and African American voters because Senator Obama was not performing as well as Senator Clinton among this crucial voting group.

That was the Primary though, and now we have moved on to the General election. Every major poll that been released shows Senator Obama leading US Senator John McCain by at least a 2:1 ratio including the most recent NY Times/CBS poll that shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 62% to 23%. The question is, when we will see the headline, "Senator McCain has a Latino Problem." In addition, when will we see the news media begin reporting the on the willingness of Hispanic voters to support and African American candidate.  If the standard for making the case in the Primary was a 2:1 lead, then shouldn't that same standard be considered now.  It is also a real problem for me to know that news media was willing to sensationalize an alleged conflict between Hispanic and African American voters, but lack the appetite to report on the harmony that is now apparent. In fact most reporting on race relations now centers on a potential divide between African American and White voters.  The discussion on race relations seems to ignore Hispanics.

I don't know when the news media will begin to accept this reality, but I know that at least Senator McCain understands the gravity of the situation. Senator McCain has been engaging in a full court press to woo Latino voters. He has hired one of the best Hispanic advertising gurus in the business, Lionel Sosa, who guided President Bush to record levels of support among Hispanic voters for a Republican presidential candidate, he is making the rounds at every major conference of the leading national Hispanic organizations, he has launched an aggressive media campaign targeted at Hispanic voters, and is pretty much willing to do whatever it takes to reach out to Hispanic voters. For a Senator who was supposed to have an easy task at courting Hispanic voters, these actions look more like signs of desperation than confidence. At this point, Senator McCain is polling anywhere from 17%-21% lower than President Bush's 2004 levels depending on which polls you reference.

During the 2008 NCLR Annual Conference these past four days, several operatives of Senator McCain's campaign have acknowledged that they are aware of Senator McCain's Latino problem. They state that Senator McCain is suffering from a damaged Republican brand among Hispanic voters due to the GOP's anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric over the last couple of years. I think that they are correct that this is a major reason why Senator McCain has a Latino problem, but one of the other important reasons Senator McCain is struggling among Hispanic voters is "trust." Senator McCain tried to address this issue during the NCLR conference by stating that he hopes his past actions have earned the "trust" of Hispanic voters. However, the Senator McCain that we know today is not the same as the Senator McCain we knew of before, and Senator McCain we just don't know if we can trust you anymore. The NY Times/CBS Poll states that 59% of Hispanics think Senator McCain does not believe his own rhetoric.   This above all else is why Senator McCain has a Latino problem.

UPDATE***

Shortly after posting this, I recieved polling information from Gallup on the issue of race relations between Hispanics and African Americans.  I think that the information is very important so, I am posting there findings here.

The generally positive review of black-Hispanic relations in Gallup polling among members of the two leading U.S. minority groups contrasts with considerable media speculation about the impact of Hispanic animosity toward blacks in this year's primary elections.

Some of that commentary has speculated that the trend is getting worse as the Hispanic population grows and starts to outnumber blacks in some neighborhoods and entire cities. Others posit that older Hispanics are more likely than the younger generation to harbor biases and resentments against blacks.

In a January 2008 New York Times article titled, "In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role," the authors write, "Mr. Obama confronts a history of often uneasy and competitive relations between blacks and Hispanics, particularly as they have jockeyed for influence in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. 'Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,' Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. 'I don't think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There's always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There's still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I've talked to support Clinton.'"

While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.

Lots of activity and energy coming from NDN over the next few weeks. Today in San Diego, NDN Vice President for Hispanic Programs, Andres Ramirez, will be presenting NDN's lastest thinking on the Latino vote in the 2008 elections on a panel at the National Council of La Raza Conference.

Last week, NDN was proud to join up with other leading thinkers and and strategists to launch Immigration '08, a new initiative and Web site that will be tracking how the immigration issue plays in the elections this year. If you haven't seen it, make sure you check out our major new report on the growing importance of the Hispanic vote, Hispanics Rising II. Andres will be the featured guest on our weekly Members' Conference call this Friday, July 18, at 2:15 p.m. ET. To RSVP, click here. Also catch Simon in an excellent overview by NPR's insightful reporter Jennifer Ludden on the impact Latinos will have on the 2008 elections. Click here to listen.

In DC this week, we have two compelling events:

A discussion tomorrow, Wednesday, July 16, with Dr. Rob Shapiro about the new and important paper he co-authored. The paper is an important addition to a growing body of thought on creative ways to confront the challenge of climate change and details a strategy for shifting to a carbon-based tax through using 90 percent of the revenue to cut the payroll tax, thereby tackling climate change without placing undue burden on average Americans or the economy as a whole. To learn more or RSVP, click here.

And we follow with a very exciting event on Thursday, July 17 -- a conversation with Declan Ganley, the dynamic leader of the recent Irish "no" vote campaign, and head of the Libertas Institute, about the future of Europe. To learn more or RSVP, click here.

NDN travels to Texas this weekend as a major sponsor of Netroots Nation, an event that has become an important meeting of the new 21st century progressive movement. We will present two panels on Saturday, July 19. To learn more about our panels and what we'll be talking about, please click here.

Next week is just as busy. For our friends in New York, come have breakfast with Simon and NDN Green Project Director, Michael Moynihan, on Monday, July 21, to talk politics, presidential campaigns, energy and climate issues and the dramatic developments in our national economy. To RSVP, click here.

On Tuesday, July 22, we hold another in our series of events about the future of U.S.-Latin American relations, this one with Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco. With all the controversy and interest in Colombia this year, this is certain to be an interesting event. Click here to read NDN's statement on President Bush's submission of the recent Colombia Free Trade Agreement. This event is the latest in our Latin American Policy Initiative (LAPI) series. Click here to learn more or RSVP.

Comments, thoughts, suggestions - send ‘em my way at mmerz@ndn.org.

San Diego, CA - US Senator John McCain delivered an impressive performance today to the conference attendees at NCLR.  I must admit that he performed much better than I was expecting.  Senator McCain focused on his support for improving relations with Latin America (something that NDN had been promoting through our Latin American Policy Initiative), the importance for assisting small businesses to help the economy, he spoke of the contributions that many Hispanics provide to our Armed Forces and yes he spoke of immigration.  Although he did not provide the rock star atmosphere that was evident during Senator Obama's speech, he kept the audience engaged and informed.  It is no secret that I disagree with many of Senator McCain's positions, and that I have criticized him for betraying Hispanics when he walked away from his own bill to pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, but you have to give credit where credit is due.  Senator McCain acknowledged that he was not in the most friendly room given recent polls that show Hispanics favoring Senator Obama by 2 to 1, and yet he still allowed the audience to pepper him with questions that were clearly difficult for him to address.  In the most important exchange, at least in my opinion, Senator McCain was asked to clarify if his modified position on immigration that emphasizes border enforcement would be submitted in ONE bill or separate bills.  Senator McCain stated that his proposal would be ONE bill that includes a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented immigrants in this country, but would provide for securing the border first.  This is an important clarification to make because he has not made this statement before.  NDN has advocated over the past few years that any Comprehensive Immigration Reform bill must include all aspects in one bill as opposed to multiple bills that deal with the various issues of immigration reform.  This statement is significant, and it is important for immigration activists to confirm that this is in fact his position, and hold him to this position. 

Tomorrow, I will be speaking on a panel titled - Latino Voters: Making their mark on the 2008 Election.  For more info on the panel click here.  Exciting times my friends, Iand  will report back tomorrow. 

San Diego, CA - "La raza cósmica" así se refirió Barack Obama al público Hispano a quién enfáticamente le dijo, "No se equivoquen: La comunidad Latina tiene estas elecciones en sus manos," durante la conferencia anual de NCLR.  Sí, el voto Hispano tiene variaciones, es un voto crucial y los comentarios que yo escucho del público demuestran que - por primera vez - ellos lo saben.  La gente aquí esta emocionada y cada vez les es más facil tener demandas y expectativas de los candidatos con respecto a los temas de importancia porque saben que su voto juega un papel más central en la política Estadounidense que en cualquier elección anterior.  Como Andrés resaltó durante su entrevista con Maria Peña de EFE: el que se gane el apoyo de los Hispanos gana la Casa Blanca.    

El uso de "la raza cósmica" implica que el Senador Obama entiende que la comunidad Hispana tiene una rica variedad de colores y creencias.  El tema de inmigración sigue siendo la preocupación primordial de los que asisten a la conferencia, más que nada debido al impacto que tienen las redadas en la comunidad Hispana.  Ayer también escuché a muchos elogiar al Sen. Obama por haber discutido temas además de inmigración con más detalle.  El reto ya está -  dado el poco apoyo que tiene la postura del Sen. McCain con respecto al tema de inmigración, se esperaba que su discurso se enfocaría en temas económicos y demás, en vez de inmigración.  Sin embargo, el Sen. Obama tomó la oportunidad ayer para introducir una nueva propuesta para ayudar a pequeñas y medianas empresas para que puedan pagar el gasto de seguro médico para empleados, temas de economía, educación, salud, veteranos de guerra, y recibió un enorme aplauso cuando atacó las redadas de inmigración, y además, criticó a John McCain por haber "abandonado su postura valiente" en el tema de inmigración. 

Sin duda, será dificil para el Senador McCain mejorar el discurso.  El Sen. McCain también ha reconocido las diferencias dentro del voto Hispano, y esta trabajando para ganarse a Hispanos que tienen políticas más conservadoras.  Ambos candidatos siguen refinando su metodología - tal como comentado por Associated Press ayer, "como pretendientes incómodos," aveces ambos candidatos han manejado torpemente su acercamiento a Hispanos al acercarse de manera demasiado directa y racional, con una metodología de "llevame a tu líder."  Pero a los Hispanos les gusta desarrollar relaciones más cercanas y personales.  El Sen. Obama empezó su discurso ayer agradeciendo y reconociendo personalmente a activistas y defensores de inmigrantes, como a Enrique Morones de Border Angels, y a lo largo de su discurso apeló al corazón y "carácter de esta comunidad," haciendo que público sintiera que aprecia sus valores, y que esos valores son valores Americanos.  El Senador McCain es reconocido y respetado por la comunidad Hispana, pero para ganarse a estos votantes tendrá que: 1) tomar esta oportunidad  única para demostrar coraje en el tema de inmigración y distanciarse de su partido, y  2) demostrar que no ve a la comunidad Hispana meramente como votantes, o peor, como un bloque de votantes a ser ganados, sino que tiene que demostrar que nuestras luchas son sus luchas, que él también conoce el "gran corazón" de la comunidad y que sinceramente le importa luchar al lado de y como parte de la comunidad Hispana.  El concepto de familia es un fundamento de la "raza cósmica," y el Sen. McCain tiene que hacer que esta comunidad sienta su deseo de ser parte de la familia primero. 

San Diego, CA - "The cosmic race," that is how Barack Obama referred to the Hispanic audience to whom he emphatically said, "Make no mistake about it: the Latino community holds this election in your hands," at NCLR's annual conference.  Yes, the Hispanic vote is a varied one, and a crucial one, and the comments I hear from the audience denote that - for the first time - they know it.  Folks here are excited and increasingly comfortable with having demands and expectations of candidates on the issues they care about because they know that their vote is more central to American politics than ever before.  As Andres noted in his interview with Maria Peña of EFE yesterday, whoever wins over Hispanics is assured to win the White House.

The use of the cosmic race denotes that Sen. Obama understands that the Hispanic community is one with a rich tapestry of cultures, colors, and beliefs.  Immigration is still by far the issue at the forefront on the minds of the attendees at this conference, mostly because of the impact of the ongoing immigration raids in the Hispanic community.  Yesterday I also heard many praise Sen. Obama for addressing a wider array of issues in more detail, in addition to immigration.  The challenge is on - it has been expected that given his current unpopular stance among Hispanics on immigration, Sen. McCain would focus rather on discussing economic and other issues of importance to this community during his address to NCLR.  Well, Sen. Obama seized the opportunity yesterday to beat him to the punch and introduce a proposed tax credit for small businesses providing health insurance to their employees, to discuss his plans for the economy, education, health care, veterans, and received thunderous applause as he attacked the impact of immigration raids on families, and he once again called out John McCain for having "abandoned his courageous stance" on immigration. 

It will be a hard act for Sen. McCain to follow, no doubt.  Sen. McCain has also recognized the differences within the Hispanic vote, and is working to appeal to more conservative Hispanics.  Both candidates are still refining their approach - as reported by the Associated Press yesterday, "like awkward suitors," both candidates have at times fumbled their approach to Hispanics by addressing members of the community too directly and rationally, with a "take me to your leaders" kind of tactic.  But Hispanics like to develop closer, more personal relationships.  Sen. Obama opened his speech by individually naming and recognizing several grassroots and immigrant rights activist in the audience, like Enrique Morones of Border Angels, and throughout his speech appealed to the heart and "character of this community," making the audience feel that he appreciates their values, and that those values are American values.  Sen. McCain is recognized and respected by the community, but to win these voters over he will have to:  1) take advantage of this golden opportunity to show courage on immigration and move away from his party on this, 2) show that he does not look at Hispanics as votes, or even worse, as a voting block to be convinced, he must show that our struggles are his struggles, that he also knows the community's "big heart" and that he genuinely cares about fighting alongside and as part of the Hispanic community.  "Familia" is a big foundation of the "raza cosmica", and he has to make this community feel his desire to be part of the family first.  

San Diego, CA - Today, US Senator Barack Obama delivered an electrifying speech that moved the crowd on several occasions.  I have now seen Senator Obama deliver this speech three times, and each time has has done better.  Today was by far his best performance.  Senator Obama addressed the major issues of the Economy, Education, Health Care and Comprehensive Immigration Reform.  About 2000 guest were able to see Obama deliver his speech, while another several thousand were unable to enter the room due to overcrowding.  Senator Obama has demonstrated a sincere interest in courting Hispanic voters with his efforts over the last few weeks.  Tomorrow, US Senator John McCain will address the conference, but by the reaction of today's crowd I don't think that he will do as well. 

Also Maria Peña from EFE wrote an article previewing Senator Obama's speech as well as dissecting the Hispanic outreach strategies of both presidential campaigns.  The article includes a quote from me talking about the importance of being able to communicate in Spanish to many Hispanic voters.  You can read the article here.