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The op-ed in today's New York Times written by Secretary Gates and the Columbian Minister of Defense, Juan Manuel Santos, reflects the spirit of shared responsibility and mutual respect that has led to dramatic progress in improving security in Colombia.  The two leaders met today to discuss the U.S.-Colombia security relationship - just one day after NDN hosted Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco at a Latin American Policy Initiative to hear her perspective on the historic liberation of several hostages held by the FARC, Colombia's growing economy, and the proposed CTPA. 

It's important that the administration take stock of the fact that Colombia's gains are America's gains.  During her presentation, the Ambassador pointed out that over the last 10 years Colombia has been on a path to eradicate drug production, which - in combination with economic and legal reforms - has led Colombia out of a "vicious cycle" of drugs, insecurity, and poverty, into a "virtuous cycle" of security, investment, and economic growth.  The remarkable transformation in Colombia's security situation is largely the result of a partnership between the U.S. and Colombia.  The U.S. understands the benefits to be gained from having a strong, prosperous, and secure ally in Colombia, and has thus committed resources to help consolidate Colombia's hard-won freedom from violence and its economic prosperity.  One can only hope that the next administration will remain invested in the security and prosperity of the Latin American region, continuing the partnership with Colombia and extending similar commitments in the rest of the region - recognizing that any instability in the region has repercussions in the U.S., and by the same token, the gains of its neighbors are the gains of the U.S.  

In the video below, NDN President Simon Rosenberg offers his thoughts on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's trip overseas, what the polls show, and U.S. Sen. John McCain's recent ad that blames Obama for high gas prices. It's about 4 minutes long, so check it out.

As he says, we're going to be doing more of these so let us know what you think. And if you have any questions you'd like him to answer in the next video, feel free to leave it in the comments below. Don't know how? Use our help section!

For more of Simon's analysis, check out two of his recent posts: Is Cheney Tied Up Somewhere? and The Story of the Race So Far - the Surprising Weakness of John McCain.

Update: In the video, Simon talks about Obama leading in Nevada and New Hampshire, but he meant to say Iowa, not Ohio.

NDN will host the next in its series of Latin American Policy Initiative forums tomorrow, Tuesday, July 22, at 9:30 a.m. The guest for tomorrow's forum is the Honorable Carolina Barco, Colombian Ambassador to the United States, who will talk about issues of importance to Colombia. A 45-minute panel will be followed by a 30-minute Q&A session.

Tomorrow's policy forum follows this weekend's mass protests against kidnappings by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the recent dramatic rescue of several of those hostages, and will serve as an opportunity to speak to the Ambassador prior to President Bush's remarks in honor of Colombian Independence Day, scheduled for tomorrow afternoon at the White House.

LAPI Forum with Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco
Tuesday, July 22
9:30 a.m.-11 a.m.
Reserve Officers
Association Building
5th Floor
One Constitution Ave., NE
Washington,DC

For years, NDN has pointed out that the rapid growth of the Hispanic community is one of the great American demographic stories of the 21st century.  In Hispanics Rising 2, our analysis explains how the Hispanic community is more central to American politics than ever before - we got the debate going.  We weighed in on this national development at a time when there was little or no debate about the influence of the Latino vote.  Our findings, which initially constituted a nuanced approach to Hispanics and this election, have become conventional wisdom.  It's interesting to see the change from a piece like the one written by Marcela Sanchez of the Washington Post about a month ago (and NDN's response), which focused on Barack Obama's "Latino problem" to her piece from Friday, "Latino Woes Curtail McCain's Wooing".  For more details on how NDN has influenced the debate, the following is a list of media citing Simon and Andres on this topic from the publication of Hispanics Rising 2 in May, to Andres's presentation at NCLR's Conference in San Diego last week:

Latino turnout could hold key to White House - San Francisco Chronicle, by Tyche Hendricks, May 21, 2008

Obama closes in on Democratic nomination - Xinhua General News Service, by Yang Qingchuan, May 21, 2008.

Obama looks west in electoral map play - Politico,  by Carrie Budoff Brown, May 27, 2008

Favorece voto latino a demócratas por tema de inmigración en EU - El Financiero, May 28, 2008

Obama woos key states with accent on Spanish - Financial Times, By Andrew Ward in Reno, Nevada, and Edward Luce in Washington, May 29, 2008

Group predicts record Hispanic turnout in next presidential election - Mashall News Messenger, by Bob Deans, May 29, 2008

Democratic Group Says Hispanic Voters Run to Democratic Party - Kansas City Infozine, by Christian A. Cheairs, May 29, 2008

Election 2008: Latino vote could be pivotal in Western states - San Jose Mercury News, By Frank Davies, May 29, 2008

El voto latino aumenta y se vuelve más demócrata - La Opinion, Pilar Marrero, May 29, 2008

Obama va por el voto hispano - CNN Espanol, May 29, 2008

Obama's E Pluribus Challenge - Rolling Stone, June 04, 2008

Obama leads in battle for Latino vote - Los Angeles Times, by Reed Johnson, June 06, 2008

Obama en busca del voto latino - La Opinion, by Pilar Marrero, June 06, 2008

Hispanics will be Obama's big challenge - Miami Herald, by Andres Oppenheimer, June 08, 2008

Spanish-language media key to victory with Latinos - Politico, by Gebe Martinez, June 10, 2008

El voto latino será crucial en 2008 - Univision, June 13, 2008

Shift on immigration could cost McCain - St. Petersburg Times, by Alex Leary and Wes Allison, June 21, 2008

The swing states of 2008 - Salon.com, by Thomas F. Schaller, June 24, 2008

Obama, McCain make strong bid for Latino votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, June 26, 2008

McCain, Obama battle for Hispanic votes - The Hill, by Roxana Tiron, June 28, 2008

Swinging for Latinos - New Mexico Independent, by Marjorie Childress, July 1, 2008

Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states - Associated Press, by Stephen Ohlemacher, July 2, 2008

McCain revs efforts to woo Hispanic voters - The Arizona Republic, by Dan Nowicki, July 10, 2008

POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election - North County Times, CA, by Edward Sifuentes, Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama prepara un "llamado a las trincheras" durante un foro hispano - EFE News Service, Andres's interview with Maria Pena, July 13, 2008.

NPR: 'Bush Hispanics' Say Goodbye To GOP, by Jennifer Ludden, July 13, 2008

McCain woos Latinos, touts immigration votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, July 15, 2008

Las Vegas, NV - Throughout the Primary elections, several political pundits and news media reported on what they considered was a problem for US Senator Barack Obama. The common perception was that since US Senator Hillary Clinton was outperforming Senator Obama among Hispanic voters by more than 2:1, then this must be a problem for Senator Obama. In addition, they generated much commentary around the assumption that there must be racial tensions among Hispanic and African American voters because Senator Obama was not performing as well as Senator Clinton among this crucial voting group.

That was the Primary though, and now we have moved on to the General election. Every major poll that been released shows Senator Obama leading US Senator John McCain by at least a 2:1 ratio including the most recent NY Times/CBS poll that shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 62% to 23%. The question is, when we will see the headline, "Senator McCain has a Latino Problem." In addition, when will we see the news media begin reporting the on the willingness of Hispanic voters to support and African American candidate.  If the standard for making the case in the Primary was a 2:1 lead, then shouldn't that same standard be considered now.  It is also a real problem for me to know that news media was willing to sensationalize an alleged conflict between Hispanic and African American voters, but lack the appetite to report on the harmony that is now apparent. In fact most reporting on race relations now centers on a potential divide between African American and White voters.  The discussion on race relations seems to ignore Hispanics.

I don't know when the news media will begin to accept this reality, but I know that at least Senator McCain understands the gravity of the situation. Senator McCain has been engaging in a full court press to woo Latino voters. He has hired one of the best Hispanic advertising gurus in the business, Lionel Sosa, who guided President Bush to record levels of support among Hispanic voters for a Republican presidential candidate, he is making the rounds at every major conference of the leading national Hispanic organizations, he has launched an aggressive media campaign targeted at Hispanic voters, and is pretty much willing to do whatever it takes to reach out to Hispanic voters. For a Senator who was supposed to have an easy task at courting Hispanic voters, these actions look more like signs of desperation than confidence. At this point, Senator McCain is polling anywhere from 17%-21% lower than President Bush's 2004 levels depending on which polls you reference.

During the 2008 NCLR Annual Conference these past four days, several operatives of Senator McCain's campaign have acknowledged that they are aware of Senator McCain's Latino problem. They state that Senator McCain is suffering from a damaged Republican brand among Hispanic voters due to the GOP's anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric over the last couple of years. I think that they are correct that this is a major reason why Senator McCain has a Latino problem, but one of the other important reasons Senator McCain is struggling among Hispanic voters is "trust." Senator McCain tried to address this issue during the NCLR conference by stating that he hopes his past actions have earned the "trust" of Hispanic voters. However, the Senator McCain that we know today is not the same as the Senator McCain we knew of before, and Senator McCain we just don't know if we can trust you anymore. The NY Times/CBS Poll states that 59% of Hispanics think Senator McCain does not believe his own rhetoric.   This above all else is why Senator McCain has a Latino problem.

UPDATE***

Shortly after posting this, I recieved polling information from Gallup on the issue of race relations between Hispanics and African Americans.  I think that the information is very important so, I am posting there findings here.

The generally positive review of black-Hispanic relations in Gallup polling among members of the two leading U.S. minority groups contrasts with considerable media speculation about the impact of Hispanic animosity toward blacks in this year's primary elections.

Some of that commentary has speculated that the trend is getting worse as the Hispanic population grows and starts to outnumber blacks in some neighborhoods and entire cities. Others posit that older Hispanics are more likely than the younger generation to harbor biases and resentments against blacks.

In a January 2008 New York Times article titled, "In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role," the authors write, "Mr. Obama confronts a history of often uneasy and competitive relations between blacks and Hispanics, particularly as they have jockeyed for influence in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. 'Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,' Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. 'I don't think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There's always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There's still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I've talked to support Clinton.'"

While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.

NDN is hosting a very interesting and unique program tomorrow (Thursday) with Declan Ganley, a key figure in one of the most important debates raging in Europe right now. Here is the note NDN President Simon Rosenberg sent out today:

Please join NDN for a special event tomorrow - a conversation about the future of Europe with Declan Ganley, a leader of the Irish "No" campaign on the European Union's Lisbon Treaty, and one of Europe's most interesting emerging leaders.

Mr. Ganley has been in the news quite a bit this week, mixing it up with French and current EU President Nicolas Sarkozy over the possibility of a second Irish vote on the Lisbon Treaty. President Sarkozy intends to visit Ireland next week to discuss EU and other issues. Mr. Ganley believes that if the Lisbon Treaty comes up for a second vote that it would only suffer an even larger defeat. For more on this discussion, click here.

Space is limited for this event, and will be first come, first serve. We will hear from Mr. Ganley tomorrow, Thursday, July 17, at 12 p.m. at the NDN office, 729 15th St., NW, 1st Floor. Following his remarks, Mr. Ganley will take questions. To RSVP, please click here.

Back in April, Rolling Stone's very insightful Tim Dickinson reported on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign and its Machinery of Hope, which has fueled its astonishing orbit.

Dickinson's article was a ground-level look at the new politics of the 21st century.

What's out? The old, top-down, endorsement-driven, party-controlled campaign of yesteryear that relies almost exclusively on television advertising and sound bites on the evening news.

What's in? A bottom-up campaign that weds the grassroots and netroots; a campaign in which television is still important but less so as New Tools such as the Internet, social netwroking, mobile phones and microtargeting have become de rigeur since the Howard Dean Revolution. (For more on these New Tools, check out our New Tools series here). 

In his April piece, Dickinson quote Simon about this new type of politics:

"That's the magic of what they've done," says Simon Rosenberg, president of the Democratic think tank NDN. "They've married the incredibly powerful online community they built with real on-the-ground field operations. We've never seen anything like this before in American political history."

Dickinson is back in the latest issue of Rolling Stone with a new piece on Obama, and so is Simon.

In this report, Dickinson explores Obama's Brain Trust, a fascinating glimpse into Obama's inner circle of staff and advisers. It's clear that Obama's circle understands the new politics of the 21st century. As Simon says of the campaign in the article's lead quote:

"The size and scale and sophistication of the Obama enterprise — it's like a multinational corporation compared to the mom-and-pop nonprofits of previous Democratic campaigns," says Simon Rosenberg, president of the progressive think tank NDN and a veteran of Bill Clinton's 1992 run. "And it isn't just bigger — it's a better model, it's more democratic, it taps into the power and passion of everyday people."

And there you have it -- a summary of the new 21st century politics that Obama has so successfully tapped into. Here at NDN and NPI, we call it the "virtuous cycle of participation."

In a post from earlier this year, Simon defined this new phenomenon:

A Virtuous Cycle of Participation - Finally, Obama has one very powerful advantage in these final days that is hard to see and evaluate - the power of his virtual community across the country. We saw the power of this community with the truly extraordinary amount of money it raised for him in January. But equally important in these final days will be the virtual door knocking these millions of people will be doing - emails to their address books, actions on MySpace, Facebook and other social networking sites, text messages sent to friends, viral videos linked too, and comments left on blogs, newspapers and call in radio shows. It is no exaggeration to say that this million or so impassioned Obama supporters will reach tens of millions of voters in highly personal ways in the next few days, providing a messaging and personal validation of Obama that may be equal in weight to the final round of TV ads, free media and traditional grassroots methods.

All the way back in 2003, I wrote an essay about this new era of participation in politics that argued the new Dean campaign model was changing the way we had to imagine what a Presidential campaign was all about. In the 20th century, a Presidential campaign was about 30 second spots, tarmac hits and 200 kids in a headquarters. In the 21st century, the race for the Presidency would be about ten million people going to work each day, wired into the campaign through the campaign's site, through email, sms, social networking sites etc acting as full partners in the fight not just passive couch potatoes to be persuaded.

This is a very different model of politics. One begun by Dean but being taken to a whole other level by Obama. It puts people and their passion for a better nation at the core of politics. When used correctly, it creates a virtuous cycle of participation, where more and more people engage, take an action and bring others in, creating a self-perpetuating and dynamic network of support. It is also why the endorsements of entities with large, active virtual communities - Kerry.org, MoveOn - is so meaningful for Obama. He has created an on-line ecosystem that can quickly take advantage of the support of the millions of people now doing politics in this new 21st century way and exponentially grow his dynamic community of change.

The Democratic Party is one entire Presidential cycle ahead of the Republicans in adopting this new model, and I will argue it is simply not possible for the Republican nominee to catch up this year. Too much experimentation, too much trial and error goes into inventing this new model for it to be easily and quickly adapted. It has to be invented, not adapted. I'm sure the GOP will catch up over time, but this year year the only GOP candidate who has taken this new model seriously has been Ron Paul - and they have paid the price. Obama raised almost as much money in January of this year as John McCain raised in all of 2007. Democrats are raising much more money across the board, seeing historic levels of voter turnout, increased Party registrations and millions more working along side with the campaigns - all of which is creating an extraordinary virtuous cycle of participation that continues to grow the number getting engaged in politics as never before. While there can be little doubt that anger towards Bush and disapointment with his government is a driving force behind this, the key takeaway is that the adoption of this new politics by Democrats allowed the Party to take advantage of this tidal wave in unprecedented ways, and will be one of the Democratic Party's most significant advantages going into the fall elections.

Much attention has been given to the money raised by this Obama network. Much more needs to be given to the power of it to deliver message, provide personal validation to friends, neighbors, colleagues and peers in ways so powerful, and ways never seen before in American history. I have no doubt that it has been the campaign's ability to foster and channel the passion of his supporters - creating a vrituous cycle of particpation - into an unprecedented national network - helping amplify and reinforce the power of Obama's argument - that is playing a critical role in Obama's closing the gap with Clinton in these final exciting and dramatic days before Super Tuesday.

Obama's camapign continues to grow -- through the Internet, through Facebook, through more and more people becoming involved in the campaign in ways they had never imagined. This election cycle may end on November 4, but the virtuous cycle of participation is here to stay.

Lots of activity and energy coming from NDN over the next few weeks. Today in San Diego, NDN Vice President for Hispanic Programs, Andres Ramirez, will be presenting NDN's lastest thinking on the Latino vote in the 2008 elections on a panel at the National Council of La Raza Conference.

Last week, NDN was proud to join up with other leading thinkers and and strategists to launch Immigration '08, a new initiative and Web site that will be tracking how the immigration issue plays in the elections this year. If you haven't seen it, make sure you check out our major new report on the growing importance of the Hispanic vote, Hispanics Rising II. Andres will be the featured guest on our weekly Members' Conference call this Friday, July 18, at 2:15 p.m. ET. To RSVP, click here. Also catch Simon in an excellent overview by NPR's insightful reporter Jennifer Ludden on the impact Latinos will have on the 2008 elections. Click here to listen.

In DC this week, we have two compelling events:

A discussion tomorrow, Wednesday, July 16, with Dr. Rob Shapiro about the new and important paper he co-authored. The paper is an important addition to a growing body of thought on creative ways to confront the challenge of climate change and details a strategy for shifting to a carbon-based tax through using 90 percent of the revenue to cut the payroll tax, thereby tackling climate change without placing undue burden on average Americans or the economy as a whole. To learn more or RSVP, click here.

And we follow with a very exciting event on Thursday, July 17 -- a conversation with Declan Ganley, the dynamic leader of the recent Irish "no" vote campaign, and head of the Libertas Institute, about the future of Europe. To learn more or RSVP, click here.

NDN travels to Texas this weekend as a major sponsor of Netroots Nation, an event that has become an important meeting of the new 21st century progressive movement. We will present two panels on Saturday, July 19. To learn more about our panels and what we'll be talking about, please click here.

Next week is just as busy. For our friends in New York, come have breakfast with Simon and NDN Green Project Director, Michael Moynihan, on Monday, July 21, to talk politics, presidential campaigns, energy and climate issues and the dramatic developments in our national economy. To RSVP, click here.

On Tuesday, July 22, we hold another in our series of events about the future of U.S.-Latin American relations, this one with Colombian Ambassador Carolina Barco. With all the controversy and interest in Colombia this year, this is certain to be an interesting event. Click here to read NDN's statement on President Bush's submission of the recent Colombia Free Trade Agreement. This event is the latest in our Latin American Policy Initiative (LAPI) series. Click here to learn more or RSVP.

Comments, thoughts, suggestions - send ‘em my way at mmerz@ndn.org.